Course No. ABM 403
Chapter 3: It's Pay Day
Welcome to Chapter 3 of Daily Fantasy Cafe's Advanced Bankroll Management Series. You will be introduced in setting up your personalized bankroll plan.
This Chapter will include:
- Setting Goals
- Growing Bankroll
- Paying Yourself
We previously discussed understanding your specific games win-rates and ROI and how to valuate it to optimize your bankroll portfolio or game selection.
It is important to not become complacent with stats but to track them, improve them and set goals ultimately to become a better DFS Player.
Goal 1 – Improve My ROI
A very obvious goal that I believe goes unnoticed. We can become complacent with our 15-16% ROI and just seeing the money coming in month after month, however, we must ask ourselves what can we did within our routine to constantly involve and improve.
This may be by improving your game selection and targeting games with weaker players OR potentially improving your research routine. If you have made it to this point and are reading this article you need to be your own boss and be honest with yourself about where you can improve.
My personal way that I found I was able to increase my ROI was to increase 50/50 calls with deeper research. For example, I would often be torn between selecting two different pairings of players. I use to just ask a friend or split my action 50/50 amongst the two lineups. NOW, I look at the two pairings and give the possible actions of each – be critical of yourself. Every possible edge you can give yourself is increase you're ROI long term and ultimately your Success in the industry.
Goal 2 – Monetary Goals – How Much Do You Want To Make?
One of the biggest Perks of DFS is you control your own success and ultimately the amount you make. Luckily, you also know how much your earning potential is based on your win-rate and ROI.
Example: I want to profit $5,000 a Month Playing DFS. What must I do to achieve it?
By now we all have our portfolio ROI, if you don't please go back and start series over. In our case my portfolio total ROI is 15%. That means for every $100 wagered I will be returned $115.
This is a very simple calculation to plan out your DFS schedule and reach your Goal
Profit = ROI * Total Buyin
In our case we are solving our Total Buyin factor.
$5,000 = 15% * Total Buyin
Divide Both Sides by 15%
$5000/15% = Total Buyins Necessary to reach Goal
$33,333 is necessary to be wagered across a month to reach your goal on average. You realize on average there are 30 days in a month leaving you with a Daily Play of approximately $1,100 dollars daily to reach your goal. Remember this is if you play every single day of the month.
What if you treat this like a job and only play 5 days a week?
$33,333 / 20 Days = $1,667 Dollars must be wagered daily to reach your goal.
As you can tell this is a significant increase to your daily play that may not be warranted in your risk tolerance based on current bankroll.
As you can tell these can be precise calculations but all determined based on math. By adjusting numbers you can set realistic goals as well as set yourself up for success. If you know that you can play $500 a night @ a 15% ROI for 5 days a week be prepared to make $375 / week. Don't set your weekly goal at $500 if it cannot be attained. Instead adjust and determine if those adjustments are worth it to make your goal.
The great benefit of planning your success and tracking your ROI is that your Bankroll is a compounding factor. Therefore if you are winning at “X" win rate and do not cash out monthly you will be wagering a number exponentially bigger than earlier in the month ultimately creating more profit for yourself.
How can we grow our bankroll faster?
To grow our bankroll faster we must understand our most profitable games and attack those with as much of our bankroll as safe as possible. If we have a long-term ROI of 30% in Double Ups and only 10% in H2H then it may be time to allocate your H2H funds in Double Ups.
By targeting your most profitable games you can increase your bankroll at a substantial rate. See below example of Player X with the below ROIs:
H2H ROI = 11%
50/50 ROI = 26%
It is very clear to see that our sample players 50/50 ROI is significantly higher than his H2H ROI. While this is a very situational decision to move 100% of your action to your more profitable game due to volatility amongst playing (1) type of game – I will show the monthly difference.
Player X wagers $30,000 every month at a 50% split between H2H and 50/50 Games.
$15,000 * 11% ROI = $1,650 in Profit
$15,000 * 26% ROI = $3,900 in Profit
Difference = $3,900 - $1,650 = $2,250 Left on Table.
This is a very linear example BUT you can see that to maximize your bankroll you must maximize the games you play.
*Note – the volatility of different types of games versus the flat distribution of games makes the psychological angle better on your bankroll. In H2H Games very rarely will you go “0'fer" while in 50/50s you will typically win all or lose all. Losing all can happen 2-3 days in a row and make you feel stressed about DFS. Proceed with caution.
Now that you are making all this money (hopefully) how will you decide how much to cash off and when. Many players don't see growth and ultimate DFS earning potential because of their desire to cash out profits. This is fine if you are a casual player not interested in making a substantial amount of income however for the rest of you – IT TAKES MONEY TO MAKE MONEY. Let me say that again – IT TAKES MONEY TO MAKE MONEY.
A Player with a 15% ROI that Plays $100 a night averages $15 Profit while $1000 Nets $150 dollars profit. I think you catch my drift. End Rant.
The amount or method you decide to cash out is entirely up to you and based on your needs however, I have found a comfortable method based on your ROI and estimated days played.
Player X has a cumulative ROI at End of Month of 17% and has wagered a Total of $31,395 netting a Profit of $5,337
Divide Cumulative Monthly ROI By 3
o17% / 3 = ~5.6%
Multiply Found Number (5.6%) by Cumulative Amount Wagered For Month.
o5.6% * $31,395 = $1758
Withdraw that amount for your personal use.
Bankroll Growth = ~$3,580
Personal Bank Growth = ~ $1,758
While this may seem very little to pay yourself, there is a reason behind this.
You want to account for any variance that may come up in the future. There is no telling that your 17% ROI this month means that you will have a 17% ROI next month. By keeping a cushion we can “lessen the blow" for future months.
You want to continue growing your bankroll so you can wager more per month and theoretically make more money.