Course No. CFB 105
Game Theory
- 1. Mobile Quarterbacks are Worth the Investment
College football is filled to the brim with quarterbacks who can pile up hearty running stats. Whether they are allowed designed QB carries, their ability to scramble turns into rushing yardage, or both, they are certainly worth your attention (and cap space) in the daily fantasy realm … Rushing yardage creates an entirely new element to their fantasy potential, as they can realistically put up enough fantasy points for a mid-level running back and a traditional QB combined. Finding a running QB in the right matchup/situation should be a priority when assembling any lineup … That's not to say that traditional QB's should never find your lineup. There is a time, place, and price where non-running QB's enter the conversation, but always look first for the mobile threats.
- 2. Identify and Exploit the “Heisman Factor"
It's all you hear about in the preseason. Turn on “College Gameday" every Saturday morning and there will assuredly be a 30+ minute segment devoted to it. A ton of stock is placed in the Heisman trophy, whether it's justified or not. Let's face it, coaches' love getting their players nominated for the most prestigious award in college football, as it boosts their resume, the player's resume, and helps with recruiting/publicity … With that in mind, we have to also realize that stats have a lot to do with Heisman nominations. Saying a guy broke 10 school records and 5 SEC records this season will make him a no-brainer for a Hesiman nomination. If a successful, top-15 team has a legitimate Heisman contender, you better believe they are going to call plays to pad that guys stats. Yes, he'll probably get the ball anyway as that team's best player, but even in blowout situations, they'll make sure their guy has met his quota for stats before pulling him. This is part of the game to keep in the back of your mind while selecting certain players.
- 3. Small School = Lower-Ownership
This is a nice follow up to the previous “Heisman" section. A lot of people gravitate to the guys who steal the SportsCenter headlines. Those are usually Heisman candidates who have whole segments devoted to their highlight reels, stories, stat lines, etc. For this reason, it makes sense that people would gravitate towards those players in daily fantasy games. It also creates a low ownership opportunity for the lesser known players of smaller schools.
Another nice thing about smaller schools deals with their competition. For instance, the Mid American Conference is full of players that most people haven't even heard of. However, the defense is notoriously poor in this conference, and final scores of 63-56 are typical in any given week. For that reason, it makes sense to look towards these smaller schools to find where their production lies in these high scoring games. Trust me, even if it's an obvious play (player coming off 5 straight 100+ yard games facing one of the worst run defenses), some people won't even think of clicking them into their lineup because they've never heard of them.
- 4. The Blowout Factor
One of the biggest differences between NFL daily fantasy and college deals with the blowout factor. Sometimes, teams are favored by 30+ points, with a realistic chance of sitting their starters in the second half. This needs to be weighed appropriately when considering which players to click into your daily fantasy lineups.
Most of the time, I use a closer game as a tiebreaker between two similar players, as they are more likely to rack up greater fantasy production while taking more snaps. However, there are some exceptions to this rule, as the starters from Baylor are typically able to rack up monster stat lines in just one half of play. The best way to pinpoint tendencies in a blowout comes from looking at that team's box scores in similar situations. Did the QB have very few pass attempts? Did the RB have only 12 carries? These are things to consider when looking at lopsided games, even if the individual matchup sets up very well.
- 5. Differences With Daily Fantasy NFL
We just noted the “blowout factor" as one of the main differences between the NFL. Another key difference comes from predicting “game flow". We touched on this in a previous section, so if you are unfamiliar with the term, please reference the Basic Research tab.
Let's face it, there is a ton of parity in the NFL, whereas any team could realistically come out and gain a reasonable lead on another team, despite the odds. That doesn't carry as much weight in college football, especially when you have teams routinely posted as 21-28 point favorites. You can accurately predict that one team will be maintaining a lead (running more in the second half) and the other will be playing from behind, using this “game flow indicator" to your advantage.
Another key difference between CFB and NFL deals with pricing. College football has so many players with relatively few outlets that churn out consistent projections. Due to this, some sites completely miss when it comes to pricing, especially when it's a new team in the game slate that has not been there in previous weeks. Take advantage of these missteps by gaining value, even if they are popular plays.
