Course No. CFB 102
Finding the Right Players
So now we know how to identify fantasy potential through the Vegas odds. However, how can we pinpoint which exact players will benefit from those certain situations? There are several different factors we can look at, as outlined below.
Game Logs
Game logs are the fastest way to obtain this information. Simply put, we are looking at what players have done in their most recent games, how many carries/receptions they had, yards, touchdowns, etc. However, while the game logs are helpful and convenient, we need to be careful in not making false comparisons while studying them. For instance, if Alex Collins, RB from Arkansas put up 200+ yards rushing against Western Carolina in his most recent game, we can't exactly put too much stock into that carrying over against a tough Alabama defense. That, of course, is an extreme situation, but we still need to look at the extenuating circumstances revolving around the given matchup.
For instance, take a step back and consider our “game flow" adaptation from the previous section. Applying this to the Alex Collins example just a few sentences ago, what if Arkansas was 35 point favorites in that matchup against Western Carolina. You'd expect them to run the ball almost exclusively in the second half to secure their healthy lead and run out the clock…right? Therefore, this game flow sets up favorable for Collins and the Arkansas RB's. Now, what if Arkansas checks in as 14 point underdogs at Alabama. On top of facing a tough run defense, Arkansas may have to throw the ball down the stretch in an effort to catch up to the Crimson Tide. This could take carries away from Collins and the Arkansas backs.
With that, we can make the conclusion that it's best to look at game logs from similar opponents in similar situations. From here, we can find a team's tendencies (passing, rushing, and looks to a certain player) while winning or favored by x points, and the same holding true in tight, competitive battles.
Stats
This is probably the most basic of all researching tools; simply looking at defensive rankings for each team. Once again, a quick google search of “ncaa football yards allowed" will lead you to multiple outlets that provide all the information you could possibly wish for (and then some). Here are the factors I am most interested in to see how a team defends overall:
Rushing yards allowed per game – I often look at the ranking overall here.
Rushing yards allowed per attempt – This is more of an efficiency stat that doesn't factor in game flow and opponent tendencies too heavily.
The same two components can hold true for passing. If there is a wide discrepancy between total rushing yards allowed and yards per carry (or passing), it can likely be attributed to game flow. Wherein, a team that has relatively low rushing yards allowed, but high yards per carry mark will likely get gashed when facing a run-first opponent with a capable rushing offense. The only reason it hadn't happened to prior stems from the competition they had faced.
Putting It Together
Okay, so now we are able to chart the game flow and find defensive susceptibilities. By subjectively putting those two items together, we can derive expected production/touchdowns accordingly. If a team is favored by 21 points against an opponent with a poor rushing defense, that would represent an A+ play for that team's running back (assuming their scheme calls for a reasonable running game) … On the other side of this, the 21 point underdog facing a somewhat generous pass defense makes for a great QB/WR pairing, as they will likely be “airing it out" in garbage time down the stretch.
One More Screen Tool: Player Props
A handful of sportsbooks release college football player props. The one I have been examining closely this season is sportsbook.ag, simply because they list more players than most other sites. This can give you an indication of how Vegas expects these individual players to perform. I don't necessarily use this as a primary screening tool, but more like an additive to my existing research, either confirming or providing more perspective.
The player props usually consist of yardage over/unders for passing, rushing, and receiving. You can sort these in ascending order to see who Vegas has as their top overall plays for each positon. While these can be helpful in many ways, be sure to take them with a grain of salt. Just because a player isn't listed within the props, doesn't mean he isn't worth consideration. You have to understand that these sportsbooks cherry pick certain players to give them accurate props. They aren't going to skim through every single game to assign these marks to every relevant player. Keep that in mind.
