Miami Marlins - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 81.5

One thing the Marlins can never be accused of is having a boring offseason. They inked Giancarlo Stanton to to a $325 million contract and did some wheeling and dealing to shake up the roster. The result is a talented lineup that should score runs to support a revamped rotation and keep the Marlins in the playoff hunt all year. Daily gamers will find an eclectic mix of talent who can help them do some winning of their own.

Park Factors

The eye-popping park factors are in the home run column. Left-handed batters get docked 38% hitting homers in Miami compared to at a neutral park and right-handed batters have a 21% more difficult time. Right-handed batters who hit doubles/triples, though, will be great choices in daily games due to a 17% increase to doubles/triples and a 14% boost to runs scored.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Jarrod Saltalamacchia- 73/79

Jeff Mathis- 31/79

Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a big ticket purchase by the Marlins last offseason. His defense grades out favorably on FanGraphs, which is surprising because he's one of the worst pitch framing catchers in baseball and he's also one of the worst catchers at preventing base stealing (72 stolen bases allowed in 89 attempts last year). With an improved and deeper offense, one has to wonder if the club would benefit from Jeff Mathis playing more behind the plate, despite his obvious offensive deficiencies. Mathis' pitch framing skills are merely average, but that's markedly better than Saltalamacchia can say, and he's considerably better at cutting down would-be base stealers (33 stolen bases allowed in 49 attempts).

Spring Training Storylines

How will Jose Fernandez's rehab progress?

Jose Fernandez isn't throwing at 100% effort yet, but he's thrown a bullpen session already which featured all of his pitches. He's yet to have any setbacks, but his timetable progress is best measured day-to-day or perhaps week-to-week. His timetable for return is fairly vague, but mid-June is the earliest he's projected to be back. If he returns to pre-surgery form, he'll be one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball and a popular daily baseball pick.

Where will Christian Yelich hit in the lineup?

Christian Yelich is a talented young hitter who probably fits best hitting second, but his left-handedness would be attractive hitting third with Stanton batting fourth in order to balance lefties and righties. Manager Mike Redmond has discussed hitting him in both spots in the spring and then determining where he fits best. Either lineup slot would be great for Yelich, but hitting third would be better. By hitting third Yelich would likely follow Martin Prado and his solid-OBP in the order, therefore awarding him another potential duck on the pond. Wherever he hits in the order, he's best used only against right-handed pitchers in daily baseball for now. He's already an above average hitter against them, and if he's able to turn a few of his ground balls into fly balls, his power could begin manifesting itself in games more often this year.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Dee Gordon exemplifies the difference in fantasy value between season long leagues and daily games. Gordon is popular for his base stealing in standard season long games, but his lack of power and poor on-base skills hurt him in daily games. Hitting leadoff will award him maximum run scoring potential, and he'll be in play when facing a pitcher and catcher duo who struggle to control the running game, but he requires ideal circumstances to be in the daily game mix.

Stanton is arguably the premier power hitter in the game. His 98 homers since 2012 are the fourth most in the majors, and he's the only player in the top five with fewer than 1,700 plate appearances. The Artist Formerly Known as Mike is tied for the top ISO (.272) among qualified hitters in that same time frame. He's a terror for all pitchers and in the daily game mix at home or on the road. That said, when he's facing a left-handed pitcher on the road -- namely at a homer-friendly park -- that's the scenario daily baseball dreams are made of.

Michael Morse signed a two-year contract with the club this offseason and adds more muscle to the lineup. He's nearly equally good against each handedness of pitcher, but he hits for a wee bit more power against southpaws. The big man fared well in a home-run suppressing ballpark with the Giants last year, and a repeat of his 133 wRC+ is attainable, albeit probably a bit above what he should be projected to total. If he hits cleanup for the team his RBI opportunities will be plentiful, and he'll merit greater daily game consideration at the deep position of first base.

Marcell Ozuna is a candidate to hit higher in the order, but the young outfielder will probably start behind the club's shiny new toy, Morse, to open the year. The 24-year-old outfielder's power blossomed last year, and should be even greater this year since he's a year more physically mature. His power came at the expense of a big strikeout rate (26.8%). Ozuna will need to cut back on the whiffs if he hopes to improve or maintain his mid- to high-.260s batting average. For a player with just 47 plate appearances in the upper minors before reaching the majors, he's handled The Show with aplomb. He enters the season as a good but not great choice in the outfield who could take a step forward this year.

As I noted above, Prado's lineup slot is up for debate. If he hits second he'd get a sizable upgrade in daily baseball value, but as it stands, he's not a bad option at the hot corner hitting sixth. He's hammered left-handed pitchers and should be rostered heavily when facing one, but he's far from worthless when facing his same handed pitching opposition.

Salty is a switch-hitting catcher who might as well not even carry a bat to the dish when facing a southpaw. You can forget about using him in daily lineups when the Marlins face a lefty. When they face a righty, though, he's an above average hitter who hits for power and demonstrates plenty of patience (10.4% BB since 2012). Since his home park is unfriendly for reaching the seats, Saltalamacchia's value is at peak level when he faces a right-handed pitcher in a homer-friendly road venue. Shortstop Aneiny Hechavarria rounds out the non-pitchers in the lineup and is a glove-only player who won't help daily gamers.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Henderson Alvarez is the de facto ace in Fernandez's absence. His pitching strengths include limiting walks (4.3% BB in 2014) and keeping the ball on the ground at a high rate (53.8%), but they don't include the ability to pile up strikeouts. As a result, he's a much better option in FanDuel games than DraftKings contests.

Mat Latos should thoroughly enjoy fleeing Great American Ballpark's homer park factors of 151 for lefties and 128 for right-handed batters for his new digs. He rarely walked batters last year (6.2% BB) and his 3.65 FIP was solid if unspectacular. More of the same would make him a daily game option when facing a bad offense.

Jarred Cosart throws hard. That's just about where the positives end. In fairness, he did post a 54.2% ground ball rate last year. Unfortunately, he didn't strike many batters out nor did he make up for it by limiting walks. Unless he develops a put-away secondary pitch or cuts back on his walks, he'll be an unreliable option at best in daily games.

Dan Haren is three year removed from posting a sub-4.00 ERA, and his FIP each of the last three years indicates he's been a true talent 4.00-plus ERA pitcher at this point in his career. He's bested 20% in the strikeout category one time in the last three seasons (2013), and he's nothing more than a matchup play bottom of the barrel selection at FanDuel.

Tom Koehler, based on the stats in the table above, is the most interesting healthy member of the team's rotation. That's unusual for a fifth starter. He had the highest strikeout rate last year of any member of the rotation, but his 8.4% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs, is below league average and doesn't portend well for him continuing to strikeout batters at his present rate. Maybe he's not all that interesting after all.

Stock Watch

Up-Jose Fernandez

Fernandez made 8 starts last year. If his timetable for returning to the bump holds true he'll more than double that total this year. When you can boast that claim as one of the best pitchers in the game, your stock is on the rise. National League East hitters might already be trembling in their cleats, but daily fantasy gamers are giddy with excitement over this young star's forthcoming return.

Down- Mat Latos

There are red flags flying for Latos. His 8.0% swinging strike rate last year was the lowest of his career ... by a wide margin. His lowest swinging strike rate before last season was 10.0% in his rookie season in 2009. Look no further than his Brooks Baseball player card for an explanation of why he suffered such a dramatic drop. Latos' fourseam fastball and sinker velocity were down more than 2 mph from 2013. Lower velocity and a lower swinging strike rate predictably reeked havoc on his strikeout rate which fell below 20% for the first time in his career. Keep an eye on the radar gun before determining whether he's worth using on daily game teams this year.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

Until the moving parts in the order are settled, it is impossible to offer a definitive stance on the value of stacking this group. That said, the player's splits lend themselves to stack potential if the players are organized correctly in the order. Furthermore, this is a group you're not going to want to go crazy stacking when they're at home. There is length to this lineup, and only Hechavarria stands out as a true stay away player.

Until Fernandez reclaims his perch atop the rotation, this is a rotation without a star. None of the projected starters top the 20% K mark. They're backed by a lineup that projects on paper to be above average, and because of that the starters will have value on FanDuel when they're favored and the price is conducive to being a bargain bin pick.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports