Vegas Win Total Projection: 81.5

The Mets managed to win 79 games last season without their staff ace. Unfortunately, their task of improving on that win total suffered a blow with news promising right-handed starting pitcher Zack Wheeler will almost certainly need Tommy John surgery. They remain an intriguing team with offensive and pitching talent who will appeal to daily gamers.

Park Factors

Completely ignoring these park factors isn't advised, but they do need to be taken with a heaping helping of salt. The center and right-center walls have been moved in for this season, and according to the team's official website, the changes range from three to 11 feet. One would expect the park factors for homers to left-handed and right-handed batters to improve as a result of the center field fence moving. Left-handed batters should enjoy a slightly larger boost since pull power will benefit from the right-center field fence move.

Park Factors

LHB

RHB

K

101

106

BB (unintentional BB +HBP)

105

104

1B

87

96

2/3B

92

94

HR

101

109

Runs

85

89

gbH (GBs turning into hits/errors)

89

98

ofH (Outfield FBs, excluding HR, turning into hits/errors)

89

92

GB

98

93

FB

116

111

LD

83

89

IF

120

120

Projected Lineup





Since '12 vs LHP ISO

Since '12 vs RHP ISO

Since '12 vs LHP wRC+

Since '12 vs RHP wRC+

1

Curtis Granderson

L

RF

.208

.206

110

109

2

Michael Cuddyer

R

LF

.269

.200

142

121

3

David Wright

R

3B

.189

.154

167

118

4

Lucas Duda

L

1B

.104

.227

74

138

5

Travis d'Arnaud

R

C

.138

.155

74

101

6

Daniel Murphy

L

2B

.075

.138

86

115

7

Wilmer Flores

R

SS

.044

.141

16

101

8

Juan Lagares

R

CF

.139

.092

109

81

9

Pitcher

-

-

-

-

-

-

Projected Rotation




IP

K%

FIP

1

Matt Harvey

R

-

-

-

2

Jacob deGrom

R

140.1

25.5

2.67

3

Jon Niese

L

187.2

17.6

3.67

4

Bartolo Colon

R

202.1

17.9

3.57

5

Dillon Gee

R

137.1

16.5

4.52

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Travis d'Arnaud- 20/79

Anthony Recker- 74/79

Travis d'Arnaud isn't an elite pitch framer, but he's above average and not going to hamper his starters. Anthony Recker, on the other hand, won't do the pitchers throwing to him any favors getting strikes. Thankfully, d'Arnaud's emergence last season after being recalled from Triple-A should assure Recker less playing time this season.

Spring Training Storylines

How does Matt Harvey look recovering from Tommy John?

Early reports are favorable. In Matt Harvey's third spring training start, against the Red Sox, he reportedly sat at 95-97 mph and touched 98 mph. His slider also looked good, according to David Ortiz. Prior to missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Harvey was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. In 2013 he totaled 178.1 innings with a 27.7% K and 4.5% BB as well as a silly 2.00 FIP. Temper expectations a smidge, but he'll be a desirable daily baseball pitching option this year more often than not.

Who will hit leadoff?

Mets manager Terry Collins would prefer Juan Lagares wins the leadoff job, but his poor walk rate (4.4% last season) will make it difficult to get on base enough to retain the job should he win it. Of course, he could walk more, but his minor league track record doesn't provide much hope for that happening. Lagares' defensive skills will keep him in the lineup every day, and his ability to hit lefties at an above average clip could result in him hitting leadoff against southpaws on occasion. Curtis Granderson, however, should be the favorite.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Granderson hit just .227 last year. His poor batting average masked gains in reducing his strikeout rate (28.1% in 2013 and 21.6% last year) and an above average offensive performance as a whole (108 wRC+). He remains a patient hitter who works walks at a very high clip (12.1%), and his patient approach lends itself to a stellar on-base percentage that would look good atop the Mets batting order.

The second spot in the order could prove dependent on who leads off. Assuming the left-handed Granderson leads off, as I am, it would provide motivation to slot a right-handed batter second. Michael Cuddyer received the majority of his plate appearances from the two-hole last year with the Colorado Rockies, so he is familiar with the role.

David Wright hitting third is a safe bet. Save for one plate appearance as a pinch hitter last year, he tallied all of his time hitting there. Wright's coming off an injury riddled season in which he managed only a 100 wRC+, but in 2012 and 2013 he totaled a 142 wRC+ and 156 wRC+, respectively. He's on the wrong side of 30, but don't write him off yet. Wright is an above average hitter against right-handed pitchers over the last three years, but he's death on lefties. When a southpaw toes the rubber, it would behoove daily gamers to get Wright into some lineups.

Lucas Duda went boom last season. He muscled up to reach the seats 30 times and sport a .228 ISO. His patience in the batter's box resulted in an 11.6% BB, and he finished the season with a 136 wRC+. Having gushed about his overall exploits in 2014, I'll caution that he's not a good play against southpaws. Deductive reasoning would lead astute readers to the conclusion he's a great play against right-handed pitchers then. Those readers are correct. A whopping 28 of his homers were hit against right-handed pitchers and he owned them to the tune of a .270 ISO and 158 wRC+. El Duderino is a really good daily baseball selection in all game types when facing a right-handed pitcher.

Travis d'Arnaud's season was something of a tale of two halves. In the first half of the season he struggled enough to get demoted to Triple-A. By season's end he moved up into the heart of the order seeing time hitting fifth, cleanup and third. Parsing data into to small of a sample size is an ill-advised move, but d'Arnaud is a young former top prospect with a small sample as it is. It looks like the light went on for him after his demotion, and he totaled a 124 wRC+ in the second half of last year with a .209 ISO. The once promising prospect appears to be turning into the above average hitter scouts and scouting types expected, and that makes him a nifty daily game option at catcher.

Daniel Murphy could just as easily hit second as he could hit down order. His value in daily games will be impacted greatly by his lineup slot. If he hits second, as he did much of last year, he'll be one of the better second base options when facing a right-handed pitcher. If, however, he hits down order he'll be merely a good play at the position. Regardless of where he hits, he's not worth using against southpaws.

Wilmer Flores failed to impress with his bat in the majors, but being miscast as a shortstop opens the door to him being an above average hitter at a weak offensive position. In 241 plate appearances at the Triple-A level he hit .323/.367/.568 and had a 137 wRC+, per FanGraphs. The Pacific Coast League is an offensive player's paradise, and Las Vegas, the Triple-A affiliate of the Mets, is a great environment for hitting. Even with a grain of salt -- and regression -- Flores would be a much better offensive option at shortstop than most of his peers. As long as Flores' defense doesn't result in a spot on the pine, he'll be an intriguing potential bargain pick.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Having thoroughly addressed Harvey above, I'll move on to the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom. The sophomore pitcher's underlying statistics fully supported his glowing surface stats. His 2.69 ERA was a near carbon copy of his 2.67 FIP. It's unlikely he'll continue to enjoy a 6.9% HR/FB rate, especially with changes to Citi Field's dimensions, but with a respectable 45.4% ground ball rate and great punch out and walk rates, he'll be fine. Don't sleep on deGrom just because he's yet to fully be embraced as a household name.

Jon Niese doesn't receive much fanfare, but his 3.40 ERA and 3.67 FIP aren't a far cry from career marks of a 3.87 ERA and 3.72 FIP. The 28-year-old starter produced his lowest walk rate of his career in 2014 (5.7% BB). He's not the type of pitcher to carry daily teams at sites like DraftKings that heavily reward strikeouts, but he's usable there and an even stronger play at FanDuel when the Mets are favored with him on the hill.

Bartolo Colon was something like the right-handed version of Niese last year, at least from a low strikeout rate and solid FIP perspective. Their daily game value will be similar, and Colon will also be more valuable at FanDuel than DraftKings since his strikeout rate is more acceptable than good. The biggest differences between Colon and Niese lie in the walk rate department (Colon walked just 3.6% of the batters he faced last year) and age. Colon is ancient -- in baseball years -- at 41-years old. There is some cliff season potential, but I'm not ready to make that leap in projection yet.

Dillon Gee projects to move into the rotation with Wheeler likely to go under the knife. Gee is little more than a stopgap until stud prospect Noah Syndergaard is ready. Enjoy picking hitters against Gee early in the season, because by June I'd expect Syndergaard in the rotation. The prospect's 4.60 ERA in Triple-A is largely the product of the league he pitched in. His 3.70 FIP is more indicative of how he pitched, and his 24.9% K and 7.4% BB are worth getting excited about.

Stock Watch

Up- Curtis Granderson

There might not be a player in the Mets lineup who will benefit more from the dimension changes at Citi Field. Duda could push him for that distinction, but Granderson's value should get a shot in the arm from changes that will probably make it easier for him to hit a few more balls out of the yard. Also, if Granderson is able to retain his reduced strikeout rate, his batting average should increase since a repeat of his .265 BABIP (35 points below his career rate) is unlikely. And if you're into the impact of hitting coaches on hitters, you'll likely be a fan of Granderson reuniting with former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.

Down- Michael Cuddyer

Citi Field dimension changes aren't going to make it play like Coors Field. That's bad news for Cuddyer, who called Colorado home for the past three seasons. His inflated BABIPs are going to come back to earth, and that coupled with his advanced age helps net him the down arrow.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

While I suggested Lagares could hit leadoff against lefties, Granderson has been an above average against them each of the last four years. With either of them hitting first, a mini-stack against southpaws would be an option if Cuddyer hits second in the order. The lineup has daily options 1-through-9, and even the stars of the offense will probably be priced a bit below the elite hitters around the league. There will be bargains to be had with their down order hitters, too.

The rotation is headlined by a pitcher, Harvey, who could reclaim his place among the game's best. Behind him, three pitchers will have daily game value that varies from site to site. The trio from second-through-fourth in the rotation will have more value at FanDuel than DraftKings, but all will be playable across platforms at various times throughout the year. The rotation will be even better when Syndergaard inevitably reaches The Show.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports




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