Atlanta Braves - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 73.5

The Braves are not a good baseball team this year. In fact, they're one of the worst. Even bad teams have daily game talent, though, and the Braves are no exception. The lineup features one upper-echelon hitter and the rotation has a pair of very good pitchers headlining it. Beyond that, the pickings are slim for daily gamers.

Park Factors

Turner Field is a good ballpark for pitchers. It increases strikeouts by 14% versus left-handed batters and 8% to right-handed batters while slightly decreasing run scoring. If you're a right-handed batter, you'll have a 7% easier time hitting homers here than at a neutral park, but you'll also be dinged 9% in double/triples.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Christian Bethancourt- 64/79

A.J. Pierzynski- 43/79

Former catcher Evan Gattis wasn't a strong pitch framer, so the returning arms shouldn't be downgraded much as a result of throwing to Christian Bethancourt. A.J. Pierzynski is also a below average framer, but he'll be a welcome sight behind the dish.

Spring Training Storylines

Who fills in for Melvin Upton Jr. in center field to open the year?

With Melvin (formerly B.J.) Upton Jr. expected to be sidelined until May, someone else will have to start in center field to start the year. The result is likely to be akin to shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Eric Young Jr. is the favorite to move from left field to center field. He's a speedster who has stolen 76 bases over the year two years combined. He's also only a .252 career hitter with very little power. If his speed results in him moving to the leadoff spot, it's possible he could have punt value when facing a bad pitcher. With Young moving over to center field, left field will probably be a platoon with Zoilo Almonte facing right-handed pitchers -- he's not interesting in daily games -- and Jonny Gomes facing lefties. Gomes has big power and owns a 133 wRC+ and .188 ISO against southpaws since 2012, meaning he's a possible bargain pick when he starts.

Who wins the fifth starter competition?

The winner of the fifth starter job could have daily baseball relevance. Of course, depending on who wins the job, the reason for the relevance will be different. Eric Stults is penciled in as the fifth starter at the moment, and he'd be a great player to stack batters against. Since 2012, Stults is tied for the 14th wOBA allowed to right-handed batters (.335). The former Padre for most of the last three years has also been dreadful on the road, allowing a .334 wOBA. Wandy Rodriguez has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and is also in the competition, and like Stults, he'd be a great target for stacking right-handed batters against.

Youngsters Mike Foltynewicz and Manny Banuelos were acquired in separate trades and have upside. Foltynewicz throws very hard and might be better suited for the bullpen, but hard throwers who can miss bats are always worth monitoring. Banuelos was a well-regarded prospect for the Yankees before missing the entire 2013 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was healthy enough to make 26 appearances (25 starts) in the minors last year. His results were ho-hum, but another year removed from surgery could result in improved numbers.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Nick Markakis was signed by the Braves to bolster their lineup, and it's possible he could hit lower in the order. Leadoff is the best spot for him, though, since his power is only middling and his on-base skills are vast. He owns a .358 OBP for his career and totaled a .342 OBP in 2014. Because the Braves are a poor offensive squad, they'll need to be facing a poor pitcher in order for Markakis to have much run scoring and daily fantasy upside.

Andrelton Simmons could be the most valuable daily option. He won't be the best player in the offense, but because he plays a position where offense is lacking, he projects to hit in a favorable lineup slot and he isn't likely to be very expensive, he could provide the most bang for your buck. He's one of the best contact hitters in the game tallying the 11th lowest strikeout rate (10.4% K) among qualified hitters in 2014. He'll need to improve his type of contact, however, if he's to improve upon his .263 BABIP. The young shortstop hits a high percentage of infield fly balls, but he made serious strides last year. His 17 homers in 2013 point to some power upside.

Freddie Freeman is a very talented line drive hitting machine. Since 2012, his 28.0% line drive rate is the second highest among qualified hitters. His ability to square up balls leads to high BABIPs and high batting averages. He's also a very patient hitter who walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances last year. Freeman's power isn't great enough to use him at the deep position of first base when he faces a southpaw, but he should get some usage against righties, against whom he's raked.

Chris Johnson might be the worst cleanup hitter in the majors, and that's not hyperbole. Hitting cleanup will artificially inflate his value by awarding him maximum RBI potential, and the result is a surprisingly useful option in daily games at the hot corner who should remain cheaper than the top players there. The optimal time to use Johnson is when he's facing a southpaw since he's hit them hard over the last three years, but also because he has been a below average offensive player against right-handed pitchers.

The Artist Formerly Known as Boss Man Junior is injured and isn't expected to return to the field until May. He's been horrible since signing with the Braves before the 2013 season. With his current employer he owns a 66 wRC+ in 1,028 plate appearances. In his last season with the Rays, though, he totaled a 108 wRC+. He's only two years removed from being an above average hitter, but don't use him in daily games until he demonstrates he can recapture some of his past hitting skills.

Second base is a mess, and Jace Peterson is battling with, primarily, Alberto Callaspo for the starting job. Neither is daily baseball relevant. Behind them is the catcher spot which should be manned by the combination of Bethancourt and Pierzynski. Bethancourt has made top 100 prospect lists, but not because of his bat. He reportedly has good raw power, however, that hasn't translated to games. Maybe he'll tap into it this year, but there is no incentive to gambling on that happening before he shows signs of life.

2015 Pitching Outlook

ERA estimators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA aren't as glowing of Julio Teheran's work, but he's been very good and bested the estimators two years in a row. For years, Jered Weaver and Matt Cain would outperform their ERA estimators, and while it's a bit premature to declare anything definitively, Teheran could be the next man to follow in their footsteps. His 21.0% K was good last year, but his 10.7% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs, could result in more strike threes this year. The 24-year-old starter will be a better play at DraftKings and daily sites that score strikeouts more favorably than at FanDuel, where wins are wins are weighted more heavily.

Alex Wood's future role was debated as he made his way through the minors. He has an unorthodox delivery that prompted some to question his viability as a starter, but 212.1 innings pitched to the tune of a 3.18 FIP with a 23.6% K and 7.0% BB in his first two years in the majors should erase concerns about his ability to handle big league hitters as a starter. The southpaw will give Teheran a run for his money for top billing in this rotation, but like his right-handed pitching teammate, he'll be best used at sites that reward strikeouts heavily since the Braves won't be favorites in many games this year.

Shelby Miller was acquired in an offseason trade shipping outfielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals. The right-handed Texan's sophomore campaign was far less impressive than a rookie year in which he managed a 3.67 FIP with a 23.4% K in 31 starts. Last season his walk rate ballooned while his strikeout rate eroded, and a 3.74 ERA bested his 4.54 FIP by a wide margin. Miller throws very hard, but according to Brooks Baseball, only his cutter generated a whiff percentage north of 10% in 2014. He did blow away hitters in 2013 with an 11.58% whiff rate on his fourseam fastball, but he'll need one of his secondary pitches to emerge as a bat misser if he wants to be daily baseball relevant this season.

Mike Minor will open the year on the disabled list with a sore shoulder, but an MRI revealed no structural damage. He's coming off a bad season and will need time to shake off the rust from a layoff from throwing. The southpaw is worth monitoring due to the success he enjoyed in 2013 (3.37 FIP and 22.1% K in 32 starts), but don't use him until he proves his shoulder injury and messy 2014 are behind him.

Stock Watch

Up- Andrelton Simmons

A revamped roster vaults Simmons into a more prominent slot in the lineup. The 25-year-old shortstop played only 44 games in the upper minors (Double-A) in 2012 before making the leap to the majors. Now 1,416 plate appearances into his big league career, the time is right for him to make offensive gains. He's unlikely to become an upper-echelon hitter at shortstop, but above average plays at a position with a dearth of offensive options.

Down- Freddie Freeman

Freeman's skills are fine, and he's entering what should be his peak years. Unfortunately, a bare lineup will incentivize pitching especially cautious to the lone excellent hitter in the lineup. Freeman's patience will be put to the test as pitchers nibble and give him very few offerings he can hammer.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The daily outlook is bleak for the offense. Only Freeman is a star level hitter, and Simmons is the best bet for regular daily baseball usage. This is a group of hitters daily gamers will want to use pitchers against often, especially at pitcher-friendly Turner Field.

At sites where wins make up a smaller percentage of daily baseball scoring for pitchers, Teheran and Wood will make for strong plays. They'll get a boost pitching at home thanks to some favorable park factors. Miller and Minor have some rebound potential, but both will need to show something before daily gamers invest. The fifth spot in the rotation should see a number of pitchers cycling through it, some of whom -- perhaps all -- will make for great daily game targets for stacking against.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports