Atlanta Braves - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Braves season didn't start out terribly in 2015, but they finished with just 67 wins in a rebuilding year. They're still in full-fledged rebuild mode, and the daily baseball pickings are slim. Their lineup should be a great one for using pitchers against, especially left-handed pitchers. The rotation is young. The could be some yet-to-be-seen upside with their young pitchers, but it's likely gamers will be more inclined to roll with batters against the young hurlers. It's going to be a long year for Braves fans.

Park Factors

Turner Field is likely to be home to some of the best pitching performances in the 2016 season. Unfortunately for Atlanta fans, most of the good pitching will be done against their poor offense in a pitcher-friendly venue. The park suppresses run scoring by 7% to lefties and just 1% to righties, but gamers can feel comfortable using pitchers with any type of batted ball profile there since it reduces homers to lefties by 19% and 2% to righties. Even doubles/triples aren't a problem in Atlanta.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

A.J. Pierzynski - 51/72

Tyler Flowers - 1/72

Last year, A.J. Pierzynski served as the primary catcher for the Braves due to the struggles of Christian Bethancourt (who was dealt to the Padres this offseason). He was a well below average pitch framer, and the same was the case in 2014 when he ranked 43rd in per game pitch framing value, per StatCorner, among catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches. The White Sox non-tendered Tyler Flowers, and the Braves sought fit to sign a backstop who tied for the best per game pitch framing value last season. He should help the young pitching staff of the Braves with his work behind the dish, but it's important to note he ranked 44th in per game pitch framing value in 2014. If you were paying attention closely, you might have noted his 2014 rank was one spot below incumbent starter Pierzynski. Flowers ranked 30th out of 78 qualified catchers in 2013, so last year looks like an outlier. Can he help the pitching staff for the Braves? Probably. Is he truly an elite pitch framer? Probably not.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will hit leadoff?

Ender Inciarte accumulated 470 plate appearances hitting leadoff for the Diamondbacks last season. Erick Aybar tallied 226 plate appearances hitting leadoff for the Angels. Nick Markakis spent 285 plate appearances batting leadoff. This is the trio who should be expected to battle for the leadoff spot in a Braves' lineup that lacks punch. Aybar really shouldn't hit leadoff since the other duo is better suited for the job. Markakis fits the new-school mold of high on-base leadoff hitter (.370 OBP last year fueled by a .296 average and 10.2% walk rate). Inciarte is more of the classic style leadoff hitter with a .338 OBP, small walk rate (4.6%) but lots of contact (10.3% strikeout rate) and speed to burn (21 stolen bases and five triples that support his wheels). As the table below indicates, I'm leaning toward Inciarte taking the job with Markakis hitting third instead of second in order to split up lefties, but I don't have strong convictions about that.

Who will crack the rotation?

Julio Teheran is the team's number-one starter. Beyond that, Matt Wisler seems like a strong bet to crack the rotation but not necessarily a sure thing. There are up to six pitchers competing for the last three spots in the rotation, and all have serious flaws. Williams Perez made 20 starts in 23 appearances for the Braves last year, but they weren't very good. He keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate, but that's about all the good that can be gleaned from his numbers. He'll turn 25-years old in May, so the team may give him another crack in their rotation, and if they do, you'll want to pick on him with lefties since the 266 he faced last year rattled off a .374 wOBA. Oh, and righties ripped him up for a .330 wOBA, too.

Mike Foltynewicz throws really hard (average fourseam fastball velocity north of 96 mph, per Brooks Baseball). His heater had a 10.96% whiff rate and his slider and curve both had whiff percentages above 13% (13.95% on the curve and 14.56% on the slider). His changeup is below average, though, and he doesn't have a weapon to neutralize lefties with. The result was a .401 wOBA for left-handed batters last year. Even with the high-power arsenal, righties teed off for a .364 wOBA against him. The Braves didn't bail on developing him as a starter last year despite his struggles, and since they're not a playoff contender this year, I'd hazard a guess they'll give him one last crack at showing signs of life as a starter before turning him into a power reliever.

Manny Banuelos was once a prized prospect with the Yankees, but health issues and ineffectiveness have torpedoed his stock. His 2.23 ERA in 16 Triple-A starts last year isn't supported by his 3.46 FIP, and his 11.4% walk rate was ugly. Banuelos' PITCHf/x data and stats paint the picture of a punching bag as opposed to a promising young arm.

Others potentially competing for the rotation include Ryan Weber, Bud Norris and Casey Kelly. Weber allowed a .365 wOBA to the 61 lefties he faced in five big league starts last season. He's a classic pitch-to-contact ground-ball hurler. Norris served up a .384 wOBA to 212 lefties faced last year, and he's allowed a .354 wOBA to them in his career. If he's in the rotation, his track record suggests stacking lefties against him or using lefties as one-off options will often work out in your favor. Finally, Kelly has battled injuries and tallied just 40.1 innings in nine appearances (eight starts) in his big league career. He's responsible for a 6.69 ERA, 4.59 FIP and 4.01 xFIP. The righty was once a promising prospect, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2013 after battling elbow issues the entire 2012 season, and his upper minor's numbers never supported the scouting reports gushing about his upside. He's probably the longest shot of this group to make the rotation, but like essentially everyone else highlighted, his greatest value in daily games will probably be to use hitters against him rather than using him as a starting pitcher option.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Remember when Nick Markakis posted back-to-back seasons of 20 or more homers in 2007 and 2008? Yeah, those days are a thing of the past. He hit three homers last year and stole two bases. His 107 wRC+ in 2015 was only one point better than his 106 wRC+ in 2014. He's a total non-option against southpaws and a bland one against righties despite his 121 wRC+ against them last season. The ceiling is very low for Markakis.

The best hitter, and best player for the Braves is clearly Freddie Freeman. If the Braves wisely slot Markakis in front of him, he should have RBI opportunities, but the bats behind him hurt his runs scored upside. The sweet-swinging lefty doesn't do enough against lefties to justify using him against them, but he's excellent against righties. Among batters who had a minimum of 300 plate appearances against right-handed pitching last season, Freeman ranked tied for sixth with a 28.0% line drive rate, and since 2013, he owns a 28.4% line drive rate and tiny 3.4% infield fly-ball rate. He doesn't have top-shelf thump, but he can reach the seats at an above average clip and his line drive swing allows him to smoke doubles to the gaps with regularity. First base is deep, but Freeman will have appeal in all game types at various times throughout the year.

Adonis Garcia ripped 10 homers with a .220 ISO, .336 wOBA and 113 wRC+ in 198 plate appearances in the majors last year. That's cool, and good for him, but it's a fluke. I'll throw cold water on his breakout season by pointing out that he hit just three homers with a 95 wRC+ in 350 plate appearances at the Triple-A level before his promotion. He hit a total of 12 homers in 718 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in 2014 and 2015 combined. Perhaps he'll have intermittent daily baseball value, but his .291/.329/.407 triple-slash line with 15 homers in 934 plate appearances at the Triple-A level is a much better barometer for his true-talent level than his sub-200 plate appearance showing in the majors last season.

The trio of hitters projected to slot in front of the pitcher's spot in the order aren't much to get excited about. Aybar is a switch-hitter who's been a below average offensive player on the whole against lefties and righties since 2013. His 80 wRC+ in 2015 was his lowest since 2010 and his 15 stolen bases barely moves the needle. A.J. Pierzynski has been in the majors since 2002 and posted a wRC+ in excess of 100 six times, and three of those times were in his first three seasons in the majors. Last year's 118 wRC+ against righties was his second highest mark in his career, but it also came on the heels of yawn-inducing wRC+ marks of 89 in 2013 and 86 in 2014. Catcher isn't deep, but that doesn't mean Pierzynski will be more than a punt option on occasion in 2016. Finally, Jace Peterson was great with his glove last year, but his 90 wRC+ against righties is the most favorable offensive number in his statistical profile. Peterson's wRC+ slipped from 88 in the first half to 69 in the second half. He might be best suited for a utility role, and even if he remains the everyday second baseman, his bat isn't daily baseball relevant.

2016 Pitching Outlook

In the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Julio Teheran tallied a 3.03 ERA that bested his 3.58 FIP, 3.74 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA. Some regression shouldn't have come as a shock, but his collapse to a 4.04 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.19 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA were a harder fall from grace than most projected. The righty's 10.8% swinging strike rate lined up with his 10.6% swinging strike rate from 2013 and 10.9% swinging strike rate from 2014, and a slight uptick in strikeout rate this year should be in order. He did, however, walk more batters than in previous seasons with a 8.7% walk rate in 2015 after recording a 5.8% walk rate in each of the two prior seasons.

Teheran's biggest problem was serving up line drives. After allowing a 21.2% line-drive rate in 2013 and a 21.3% line-drive rate in 2014, it skyrocketed to 24.0% in 2015. Teheran's skills retiring left-handed batters also cratered. He allowed a .355 wOBA to lefties in 2013, improved greatly tallying a .301 wOBA allowed in 2014 and served up an eye-popping .386 wOBA to them last year. Queue up left-handed batters against him this season. Teheran has another nifty platoon split worth filing away in your memory bank. For his career, he has a 4.47 FIP, 4.33 xFIP and 18.1% strikeout rate on the road and a 3.36 FIP, 3.55 xFIP and 23.4% strikeout rate at home.

Teheran will basically be a one-man show in the rotation in terms of daily baseball relevant hurlers. Matt Wisler had a strong season in 2013 with a 2.79 FIP in 20 Double-A starts. In 2014, he posted a 5.14 FIP in 22 Triple-A starts, and last year, he recorded a 3.30 FIP in 12 Triple-A starts before tallying a 4.93 FIP, 5.10 xFIP and 4.98 SIERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in the majors. He projects as more of a back-of-the-rotation starter than a mid-rotation or front-end starter. Lefties abused Wisler last year raking to the tune of a .320/.416/.569 triple-slash line with a .419 wOBA against him. Stack lefties against Wisler.

Stock Watch

Up - Hector Olivera

Hector Olivera raked in Cuba, but the 30-year old who will turn 31 shortly after Opening Day struggled in year one in the U.S. He hit .272/.326/.376 in 135 minor league plate appearances before swatting two homers with a 97 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances in the majors. The tools that earned him a $62.5 million contract from the Dodgers are still there, and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs at the time and now Assistant Director of Baseball Operations for the Braves, described him as a potential All-Star back in early August. The Braves are hoping he can stick in the outfield, but if he doesn't have the chops to handle it defensively, a move back to his natural position at third base is a possibility. The data for analyzing is scant, so I'll trust the scouting reports for the time being.

Down - Ender Inciarte

Ender Inciarte swaps an offense that posted a .319 wOBA and 96 wRC+ against righties for one that recorded a .300 wOBA and 88 wRC+ against them. The speedy outfielder stole 21 bases last year but owned just a .125 ISO against right-handed pitchers. His value is tied to stealing bases, rattling off hits and scoring runs. Downgrading his offense hurts his chances of run scoring this season. He also may not be awarded as many stolen base opportunities this season. The Diamondbacks ranked second in stolen bases in 2015 with 132 and attempted 176 steals, and the Braves stole just 69 bases in 102 stolen base attempts. Inciarte isn't a total daily baseball dud, but his upside took a big hit and moving from a team with stackability like the Diamondbacks to a less stackable lineup like the Braves doesn't help his case for usage, either.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.