Chicago Cubs - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 82.5

The Chicago Cubs were the cellar dweller in the National League Central last year. They project to contend for the division title this year. The club signed manager Joe Maddon -- who did a masterful job winning games for the cash conscious Tampa Bay Rays -- to be their skipper. They also added talent to the rotation and lineup through free agency and trades. The youthful core of this team will be the key for the Cubs making a run at the World Series this year, and from a daily fantasy perspective, they'll be the difference between this team being a good source of daily options or a great one.

Park Factors

Wrigley Field enhances run scoring ever so slightly for lefties, 1%, and righties, 4%, but does a significant job of boosting doubles/triples for lefties and righties, 13% and 5%, respectively. Right-handed batters also get a 10% pick-me-up on homers. It's important to note, the winds off Lake Michigan can play a notable role in how the park plays, so it's best to check the weather forecast in hopes of finding out if the wind is blowing in or out at Wrigley Field.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Miguel Montero- 7/79

David Ross- 5/79

You won't find a better pitch framing catching tandem than Miguel Montero and David Ross. They both do a great job of picking up strikes on close pitches and not costing their pitchers strikes by fumbling their framing of the pitches thrown in the strike zone. These two will squeeze every extra ounce of value out of the starting pitchers for the Cubs.

Spring Training Storylines

How will Arismendy Alcantara be used?

It has been speculated Maddon might use Arismendy Alcantara similarly to how he used Ben Zobrist with the Rays. In other words, Alcantara might see playing time in a super utility role playing third base, shortstop, second base and outfield. If he's playing nearly every day, he'll be an interesting daily baseball option depending on what position he's eligible at on the daily site you choose. The youngster hit 10 homers and stole eight bases in just 300 plate appearances last year. He struggled with strikeouts (31.0% K), but was better than that in the minors. With more playing time in the majors, he should pare down his strikeout rate a great deal.

Who will be the fifth starter?

A potentially excellent Cubs offense makes the fifth starter battle more intriguing than it would have been in recent years. The left-handed Travis Wood might be a slight favorite over right-handed Edwin Jackson, but neither is coming off a good season. Wood's control failed him last year, and for a pitcher without big swing-and-miss stuff, he couldn't afford for it to wane. E-Jax limped to a 6.33 ERA, but his 4.45 FIP suggests he had some awful luck piling on top of his already poor performance. Both Wood and Jackson have upside as bottom barrel starters in FanDuel games where you're chasing wins. When each is going right, they also have some GPP upside as boom-or-bust pitchers who aren't terrible at striking out batters, though, neither is a huge strikeout artist.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Dexter Fowler kicks things off. He was acquired via trade from the Houston Astros. He's a physical specimen who has done more teasing of what he might do than fully delivering power numbers or stolen bases. Having said that, the switch-hitter has still been an above average offensive player due in large part to a keen understanding of the strike zone and the strong walk rates that result from his discerning eye. He owns a 13.0% BB since 2012, and that lines up well with his 13.1% BB last season. He's playable against either handedness of pitcher, but he's a stronger option against southpaws.

Starlin Castro isn't a lock to hit second, but I believe he'll hit there. His since 2012 numbers are weighted down by a dreadful 2013. Throw out his 69 wRC+ against lefties in 2013, and you'll see he posted a 107 wRC+ against them in 2012 and a 117 wRC+ last season. If he hits second, Castro and Fowler will give southpaws fits. Overall, Castro is an above average offensive player at shortstop and a fine option against right-handed pitchers, too.

Anthony Rizzo exploded last year. He crushed 32 homers, with a .240 ISO and 153 wRC+. He was a heralded prospect who flashed his potential at the big league level, but huge gains against lefties helped him emerge as a force at first base. He's one of the best hitters in the game, and daily gamers should accept his breakout as legitimate. Rizzo is best used against right-handed pitchers, but after tallying a 163 wRC+ against southpaws in 2014, he is very much in play against them as well.

Get your popcorn ready. There will be Kris Bryant fireworks to begin the year, one way or another. If he's optioned to Triple-A, his stay there probably won't last until the end of April since it will be nothing more than a means of delaying him from reaching free agency by manipulating his service time. If he's sent to the minors, expect his agent, Scott Boras, to make a bigger stink than he already is. It is possible -- albeit unlikely -- he opens the year in the bigs. Regardless, Bryant is going to play the bulk of the year at the hot corner and will make for an exciting daily baseball option. His high strikeout rate could limit him to GPP usage early, but his elite power makes him arguably the top prospect in baseball and a very high ceiling selection. He's annihilating pitching in spring training, and while those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, his power is very real.

Jorge Soler is yet another tantalizingly talented young player homegrown in the organization. Soler spent most of last year in the minors and managed a .340/.432/.700 triple slash line in 236 plate appearances, most of which were accrued in Double-A and Triple-A (30 plate appearances at the Rookie level). He walked at a rate of 13% or higher at each rung of the minor league ladder last year and has top shelf thump in his bat. Soler quickly burst onto the scene in the majors totaling a 146 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances in which he swatted five homers. He may have some hiccups in his rookie season, but Soler projects to be a very useful daily game option in the outfield this year.

Montero frequently hit in the heart of the order for the Diamondbacks, but a deeper Cubs lineup will push him down in the order. That's okay, he should have plenty of RBI chances hitting behind the high-OBP trio of Rizzo, Bryant and Soler. Don't use Montero against lefties, but consider him a very good option against right-handed pitchers.

Javier Baez has one of the highest offensive ceilings in baseball. It can also be completely undermined by his sky-high strikeout rate. Baez's high strikeout rates have made him a boom-or-bust player, but his boom resulted in 32 homers last year (23 in Triple-A and nine in the majors). A 41.5% K in 229 plate appearances is reason for concern, but even in game one this year Baez is an acceptable GPP play for gamers chasing the long ball and shooting for the moon. If he's able to curb his strikeout rate, he could emerge as one of the best hitters at the keystone position.

Chris Coghlan has mostly been a forgotten man since capturing the 2009 National League Rookie of the Year Award. Last year he did his best Phoenix impression rising from the ashes and posting a 123 wRC+ in 432 plate appearances. His .169 ISO speaks to modest power, and a 9.0% BB helped him post a .352 OBP. His ceiling, though, is limited even when he's clicking on all cylinders.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Jon Lester picked a good time for a career year. His walk year in Boston proved to be a brilliant one when he twirled the ninth best FIP and 11th best K-BB% (19.4%). The southpaw's strikeout rate surged thanks to generating his highest swinging strike percentage (9.9%) since 2010, and it fully supports his jump in K%. A move from the American League to the National League should help him in his quest to remain one of the top pitchers in baseball, and he'll be a very good daily baseball choice.

Jake Arrieta had a breakout season. He delivered a post-hype emergence that resulted in him posting the second best FIP among pitchers who threw a minimum of 150 innings and he also ranked sixth in K% and eighth in K-BB% (20.5%). He's a right-handed ace who pairs nicely with lefty ace Lester. If you're not rostering Arrieta often this year, you're probably not going to be winning money as often as you could be on the nights he starts.

Jason Hammel made more than half of his starts with the Cubs last year before being dealt to the Oakland Athletics. He returns to the Windy City and will look to pick up where he left off in the National League.

Kyle Hendricks' FIP suggests his 2.46 ERA was a bit lucky, but his rookie season was a success. His ceiling is limited due pedestrian stuff that resulted in a 14.6% K, but his dental floss thin 4.7% BB rate and 47.8% ground ball rate will help him pitch at an acceptable level to help daily gamers on occasion. When he and the Cubs are favored, he'll be a decent option at FanDuel. However, unless he starts punching more batters out, he'll be a little light on scoring potential to appeal to gamers at DraftKings.

Stock Watch

Up- Jason Hammel

As a member of the Cubs, Hammel started 17 games spanning 108.2 innings and totaled a 3.19 FIP with a 24.2% K. He didn't enjoy as much success with the A's, so a move back to the club that maxed out his talents has to be viewed as a boon for his value. Hammel's stock is way up.

Down- Chris Coghlan

Coghlan's return to big league relevance in his age 28-29 season makes for a feel-good story, but I'm skeptical of a repeat. His leash is likely to be short with Alcantara lurking on the bench without a permanent defensive home.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

If the projected lineup holds true, there is great stack potential for the 1-through-4 hitters. The number of young hitters in this lineup provides some uncertainty about how good it will be, but the sky is the limit. In a perfect world, the Cubs lineup will be a goody bag of talent for daily gamers to pick through.

The rotation is headlined by two upper-echelon starters in Lester and Arrieta. Both the lefty and the righty will have big daily baseball value across all daily fantasy sports websites. If Hammel is able to recapture the success he had with the Cubs early last year, he'll make it three very good arms to pick from. The back of the rotation isn't as exciting, but the fourth and fifth starters could have value for gamers chasing wins at FanDuel.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports