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2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

If you want to talk about an offseason haul of youth, Chicago laid out the possible groundwork for their future. They traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, landing Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Yoan Moncada. We will see them sprinkled in throughout the season, but we are still some time away from them being big fantasy targets in our game. The Sox offense doesn't lose much with Eaton gone, but they do lack a true number one ace. Jose Quintana is next in line, unless he gets traded this season. Carlos Rodon has big strikeout potential, and limiting his walks last season has me interested in 2017. The White Sox offense was hit and miss in 2016, and a frustrating one to guess on. That will likely carry over, but there is a lot of value here.

Offseason Moves

Additions: Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Yoan Mancada

Subtractions: Chris Sale, Adam Eaton

Park Factors

Chicago decided to change the name of this stadium to something horrible, but I am referring to it as U.S. Cellular anyway. Alright fine, Guaranteed Rate Field ranked tenth in home runs last season, but 21st in runs. This is one of the better home run parks in baseball, but is below average in extra base hits, and plays only slightly above average on an overall level. Right-handed bats had a slight power edge in 2016, while lefties played close to average.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Tim AndersonSS.308.154.342.130
2Tyler Saladino2B.300.137.348.101
3Melky CabreraOF.338.155.360.174
4Jose Abreu1B.348.159.352.238
5Todd Frazier3B.323.229.339.278
6Cody AscheDH.305.155.337.209
7Avisail GarciaOF.303.137.297.152
8Geovany SotoC.316.180.400.286
9Peter BourjosOF.289.162.300.060

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1Jose Quintana20821.63.56
2James Shields114.114.56.93
3Carlos Rodon16523.54.01
4Miguel Gonzalez133.216.83.73
5Lucas Giolito21.110.98.21

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: C+

DFS Studs: Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana isn't flying under the radar anymore. He finished top ten in quality starts, which is a thing now with the new FanDuel scoring. There were rumors of him leaving Chicago last season, and that will probably be the case again this season. He has logged 200+ innings in four straight seasons, and constantly hovers in between the 3.00 and 3.50 ERA mark. He does a great job keeping the ball in the park, and has an average strikeout rate (21.6%). Quintana allowed over three earned runs just eight times in 32 starts.

We can be quick with James Shields. He is a stacking against pitcher, and not one to target in 2017.

As long as Carlos Rodon is healthy, he can certainly bring fantasy upside to the table. He limited his walks last season, compared to 2015, where he had a 4.59 BB/9. The home runs were up a little bit, which is expected for a league average groundball rate in Chicago. Rodon can miss some bats, with a 10.1% swinging strike rate, yet I do want to see it climb a little higher. Rodon is a young arm to keep an eye on this year, and with all the hype around other names, he should fly under the radar early on in the year.

The White Sox went out and traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, in return they landed Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Both were optioned to the minors to start the season, but will be guys that come up throughout the year. Derek Holland should be the guy to come in play here while they polish up in the minors. Holland isn't a prime DFS target.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: C

DFS Studs:

The White Sox were likely a team you got wrong more often than not. I was in that boat. They ranked 21st in ISO and 22nd in wOBA. With Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, and Melky Cabrera in the top four, and in a friendly ballpark, I expected a little more. They paid Tim Anderson to be a focal part of the offense, yet a leadoff man is not expected to have a 27% strikeout rate, and a 3% walk rate. His lineup spot will bring cheap value, especially if they let him run freely. He did have decent numbers against lefties as well.

Hard to knock Jose Abreu, but 25 home runs is a bit disappointing from a promising power first baseman. His hardball rate has dropped 2% each year in the majors so far, alongside his home run count. Abreu did have a better second half last year, boasting a .383 wOBA and a .195 ISO. His strikeout rate was cut down, and he got the line drive rate up. Abreu will by a sneaky play early on while many try and figure out if he is back to his 2014 ways or not.

The Todd-Father, Todd Frazier, hit 40 homers last season, which was a career high. The strikeout rate took a bigger jump last season, which resulted in a poor .225 average. A .236 BABIP doesn't help either. Frazier should come back to being a .240 to .250 hitter this season, with 30+ home runs. He is also good to nab a still every now and then.



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