Cincinnati Reds - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 78.5

For a team that projects to finish with a sub-.500 record, there are certainly some interesting pieces on this squad. The lineup has potential top shelf talent at a few positions, and the rotation has a pair of starters who could be regulars on daily baseball rosters. Don't dismiss this team from daily baseball consideration.

Park Factors

Get your boppers lined up to trot out at Great American Ballpark. Left-handed batters get a lift of 51% from a neutral park when it comes to finding the seats and right-handed batters get a 28% boost. Pitchers who coax ground balls and miss bats make for a great play at GAB, too, since they'll avoid the pitfalls of ceding taters and get an 11% strikeout boost against lefties and a 10% strikeout nudge upward against righties.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Devin Mesoraco- 53/79

Brayan Pena- 22/79

Devin Mesoraco is in the Reds lineup for his bat, not for his pitch framing skills. Unfortunately, that will do his starting pitchers no favors. When he gets a day off, though, Brayan Pena will help the starters more than Mesoraco. Truth be told, the drop in offense with Mesoraco out could actually hurt pitchers more than the extra help behind the plate provided by Pena.

Spring Training Storylines

Could Joey Votto hit second?

The projected lineup above has Joey Votto slotted third, but the best spot in the order for him is second. Since 2012, his .439 OBP is the highest among qualified hitters. Even more impressive, it's 34 points higher than the second best OBP in that time frame -- almost equal to the difference between second and 22nd in OBP. He's great against left-handed and right-handed pitchers, and a cash game stud due to his consistency in a sport where the best hitters fail so often.

How close to ready will Homer Bailey be by the end of spring training?

Homer Bailey has made a minor league start in spring training and is feeling fine. He was reportedly throwing his fastball around 90-91. Bailey underwent surgery on his forearm last September, and as long as he doesn't have any setbacks, he should build up his arm strength and be ready to rejoin the rotation in the middle of April.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Billy Hamilton is a far better season long player and real life baseball player than a daily baseball option. He could, however, become more useful if he makes just a few gains in the OBP department. As the leadoff hitter, getting on-base would allow him to use his blazing speed to steal a truck load of bases and pile up runs scored in a fairly talented offense. As it stands, the outfield is deep, and Hamilton isn't a player to go crazy rostering early in the season.

Todd Frazier isn't a hitter without faults, but he's positioned himself as one of the better hitters at third base. Last year he made the most of his power and park and swatted 29 long balls. He's good against lefties and right-handed batters, and his right-handed thump makes him a really appealing player to use when he's at home.

I've already gushed about Votto's on-base skills. He's more than just a guy who knows how to take a walk. The left-handed batter can really square pitches up, and he has the highest line drive rate of any qualified hitter since 2012, according to FanGraphs.

Mesoraco's offense was on full display in a breakout 2014 campaign. If Votto hits second, I'd expect the right-handed hitting Mesoraco to move up to third, though, there are some other lineup possibilities. The 25 homers he hit last year led all catchers, and his .260 ISO was the highest among catchers who totaled 400 or more plate appearances. The young catcher has massive power that is amplified in his home ballpark. He'll be one of the best catchers in daily baseball this year.

Jay Bruce is coming off a dreadful season. He posted the second worst BB% of his career and the highest K%. His power simply wasn't there, and the result was a 79 wRC+. Still, he'll be only 28-years old on Opening Day. He should be in his peak years, and a rebound season that lines up with his three straight years of belting 30 or more homers from 2011-2013. His down year should provide a sizable discount for rostering him early in the year, and I'll be taking full advantage by rostering him often before the price adjusts to a rebound.

In what figures to be a down year for the Reds, the addition of veteran outfielder Marlon Byrd was a curious one. He, however, adds more pop and length to the lineup. He enjoyed a career year in 2013, and was again above average offensively last year due to a change to his approach which has resulted in more strikeouts and extra power. As a right-handed batter who swings for the fences, GAB is a great fit. He'll be a sweet option for daily gamers when facing a left-handed pitcher.

Brandon Phillips has enjoyed a long and successful career. Last year was his worst offensively since 2005, though. Second base isn't a position noted for its offense, so Phillips will likely have some daily game value this year when the matchup is right. Zach Cozart will occasionally have some punt value at home against a left-handed pitcher, but that's about the extent of his daily game value.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Despite his small stature, Johnny Cueto piled up the innings and was great from start to finish in 2014. He ranked second in innings pitched, 24th in FIP, 10th in K% and 14th in K-BB% (18.4%). He's not a top 10 starting pitcher, but he's in the next tier of pitchers and a really good daily game option.

Bailey -- assuming his velocity returns as he regains arm strength -- is a better daily option than his surface stats from last year probably indicate. His 3.71 ERA was better than his 3.93 FIP, but homers hurt him and his rate was a little high, and his 3.53 xFIP probably best reflects how he truly pitched. He was brilliant in 2013, and an 11.0% swinging strike rate portend to a huge jump in strikeout rate. Bailey will open the season a little under priced, and like with Bruce, I'll be taking full advantage and rostering him.

Mike Leake's low strikeout rate prevents him from being a high ceiling pitcher at sites that reward punch outs heavily, but he'll have value in other games when he and the Reds are favored to win. Leake does a very good job of limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground at a high rate (53.4% ground ball rate in 2014). The combination works nicely with a passable strikeout rate, and it's good enough to project a mid- to-high threes ERA. Again, not a guy who will carry daily teams, but a possible bargain arm when the matchup is favorable.

Anthony DeSclafani made 13 appearances for the Marlins last year, five of which were starts, and he posted an ugly 6.27 ERA. A really high BABIP (.330) and a flukey left-on-base percentage sabotaged his work. He leaned heavily on his fastball and slider combo, throwing his changeup only 5.56% of the time, per Brooks Baseball. If he struggles with his changeup, the right-handed pitcher could be for a great candidate for stacking left-handed batters against.

Raisel Iglesias will be battling Jason Marquis for a rotation spot when Bailey is healthy. Iglesias is the potentially intriguing pitcher of the duo. The Cuban defector was signed last summer. FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal noted in a piece written this month that Iglesias throws his fastball 93-94, and while the Reds view him as a starter, other organizations viewed him as more of a reliever. His live arm is worth following early in the year, but there is too much uncertainty about him to trust using on daily baseball rosters.

Stock Watch

Up- Joey Votto

Votto's knee is a concern, but when healthy, he'll be in a Reds offense that see its stock on the rise. As a high on-base hitter, much of his value will be derived from run production stats. Therefore, it stands to reason that a better Reds offense makes Votto more appealing to daily gamers.

Down- Brandon Phillips

Phillips' years of being miscast as a number three hitter came to an end last year. Now slotted near the bottom of the order, his declining hitting skills won't be masked by RBI totals befitting a more talented hitter. His home ballpark and position will keep him in the daily game mix, but he's a low ceiling pick at this point in his career. His stock is down.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

Can Hamilton take a step forward offensively? Will Bruce bounce back? Can Votto stay healthy? Will Mesoraco follow up his breakout with another strong season? The answer to these questions will determine just how good this offense will be, but I'm bullish on the Reds and expect them to provide gamers with some excellent hitting selections.

The rotation isn't anything to get thrilled about. The fourth and fifth starter spots could be a revolving door if DeSclafani and Iglesias -- a pair of young starters -- struggle making the adjustment to the majors. Cueto gives the rotation a steady, top notch daily baseball pitching option. Bailey backs him as a starter who I like a lot, and Leake is serviceable at sites where wins are rewarded heavily and strikeouts aren't highly sought after.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports