Houston Astros - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The rebuilding Astros did something unexpected last year. They made the playoffs as the second Wild Card. The youngsters managed to win 86 games. They remain a young group, but they're also a talented group of players. The lineup has high-end talent but also some questions down order, and the rotation has useful starters throughout it headlined by the 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner. They're a highly stackable offense against lefties and righties. They should once again be a source of all sorts of goodies for the daily baseball community.

Park Factors

Minute Maid Park plays almost exactly neutral only enhancing run scoring by 1% to lefties. That's not to say it's a bad place to use hitters. On the contrary, power hitters receive a huge boost in a state where everything is bigger. Left-handed batters receive a 3% boost to doubles/triples and a 31% boost for homers, and righties get a 14% boost for doubles/triples and an 18% uptick in homers. Avoid using fly-ball pitchers in Houston and load up on muscle there. Ground-ball pitchers remain in play since run scoring in general neutral there.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Jason Castro - 15/72

Max Stassi - Not Ranked

The Astros are one of the most statistically savvy franchises in MLB, and a member of their front office, Mike Fast, was at the forefront of grading pitch framing when he worked for Baseball Prospectus. It should come as no surprise that their starting catcher, Jason Castro, ranks highly in pitch framing. He also ranked 21st out of 79 catchers who caught at least 1,000 pitches in 2014, so ranking above average is nothing new for the Stanford product. Max Stassi caught just 345 pitches last year, and among catchers who caught a minimum of 300 pitches, he ranked 96th out of 98 catchers in per game pitch framing value. In 2014, he also narrowly surpassed 300 pitches caught having caught 324. Once again using the 300 pitches caught threshold, he ranked 26th out of 96 catchers in per game pitch framing value. Given the small sample sizes and the huge disparity in rankings, it would be foolish to make a declarative statement about Stassis' framing skills. Since the Astros have placed a high priority on pitch framing, I'm willing to guess Stassi will perform closer to his 2014 level than his 2015 level. Regardless, Castro is the primary catcher and an asset for pitchers to throw to.

Spring Training Storyline

Can Jon Singleton handle first base full time?

The Astros chose to non-tender Chris Carter, and that leaves the first base job to Jon Singleton. At one point a hot prospect, Singleton has yet to deliver on his promise. In 448 plate appearances at the Triple-A level last year, he tallied a 14.3% walk rate with a .251 ISO, .377 wOBA and 128 wRC+. It was attached to a .254 batting average, though, so he's not without faults. He's totaled 420 plate appearances in the majors and struck out in a staggering 36.0% of them, but he's also done a great job of earning walks (14.3% walk rate). That final piece of the three-true-outcomes puzzle hasn't been there, however, with just 14 homers and a .160 ISO.

His reverse platoon split in the majors might be a mirage, though. Last year, He managed a pitiful .181/.257/.307 triple-slash line against southpaws in 187 plate appearances in the minors, according to Baseball-Reference. He did, however, hammer right-handed pitching (.290/.414/.595 triple-slash line in 319 plate appearances). His standard split played out in the minors in 2013 as well. Why didn't I definitively declare his reverse platoon split in the majors a mirage? Because his 2014 season in the minors featured a reverse platoon split (.276/.361/.497 versus lefties and .178/.317/.383 versus righties). The Astros will probably give him a chance to prove his worth as a full-time option at first base, but if he falters against southpaws, Marwin Gonzalez stands out as a possible platoon partner at first. If Singleton completely face plants, Evan Gattis could receive playing time at first base and open up playing time to Preston Tucker at the designated hitter. Tucker was excellent against righties as a rookie last year totaling a .238 ISO, .347 wOBA and 120 wRC+. He'd immediately have value against righties in the event he was thrust into regular playing time against righties.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Jose Altuve is a spark plug atop the Astros' order. He ranked fifth in the majors with 38 steals last year after ranking tied for second with 56 in 2014. His elite base stealing skills make him a high-ceiling play, but he's not a speedster who swing a noodle bat. Since 2013, the diminutive second baseman ranks ninth in wOBA and 10th in wRC+ against southpaws among qualified hitters. He's a terror against lefties, and while he's only been an average hitter against righties since 2013, his high-contact approach, lineup spot and stolen base skills keep him in the mix as a solid play at the keystone position.

George Springer missed significant time due to injury for the second time in as many seasons in the majors, but he was very good offensively when on the diamond. Strikeouts along his trek to the majors raised questions about his ultimate offensive outlook, but he cut his strikeout rate down from 33.0% in 2014 to 24.2% last year. That dramatic change bodes well for him long term. He's a very patient hitter who's walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances in the majors. Springer rounds out his profile with above average power that plays well in him home park and stolen base skills. The toolsy outfielder stole 16 bases in 20 attempts last year, and he stole over 30 bases in each of his full seasons in the minors. Springer's ceiling is through the roof, but his strides making contact last year should smooth out some of the variance in his game and make him a strong play in all game types, not just GPPs. As the table shows, Springer's been better against lefties in his young career, but he's a strong play against righties, too.

It's not hyperbole to say that Carlos Correa is probably already the best offensive shortstop in the majors. Correa's 22 homers led all shortstops, and the uber-talented American League Rookie of the Year Award winner didn't even reach the majors until June 8. He also stole 14 bases in 18 stolen base attempts. His plate discipline belies his youth (9.3% walk rate), and he wasn't overwhelmed by the stuff from big league pitchers striking out in just 18.1% of his plate appearances. Correa annihilated left-handed and right-handed pitching and did so in the minors, too. Unless he's facing the likes of Clayton Kershaw or other elite pitchers, Correa will be in the discussion for top shortstop on every day of the regular season. Even against elite hurlers, Correa's an elite play in GPPs. Correa's awesome.

Colby Rasmus accepted the qualifying offer from the Astros, and he'll return to patrol the outfield for them this year. He's an all-or-nothing hitter. Rasmus stuck out in 32.5% of his plate appearances against righties but also had a .243 ISO, .329 wOBA and 107 wRC+ last season. The outfielder had posted just one season of a wRC+ above 100 against lefties prior to last season (2010), but he'd been trending the right direction over the two previous years. Last season, he walked in 14.3% of his plate appearances against southpaws with a .218 ISO, .365 wOBA and 132 wRC+. He struck out frequently against them (30.0% strikeout rate against lefties), making him a boom-or-bust play against left-handed pitchers, too. Rasmus' power fits his home park perfectly, and the volatility in his game plays well in GPPs. Even with his strong season against lefties in 2015, he's a better option against righties, but as a player you're chasing a tater (or taters) with, his power is real and worth a dice roll on occasion against lefties as well.

Evan Gattis is a classic slugger. In his first season with the 'Stros, he set a new career high with 27 long balls, but his low average and impatient approach resulted in just a .285 OBP. His raw power is well above average and plays well at Minute Maid Park, but his unrefined approach at the dish makes him a GPP only play at a deep position.

Luis Valbuena hit a career-high 25 homers last year with a career-high .214 ISO. Like some of his lineup mates, he's a boom-or-bust play with a big strikeout rate, above average patience and above average pop. He was awful against lefties, which is nothing new for him, but his numbers against righties last year were better than his three-year totals in the table above (.234 ISO and 121 wRC+ in 2015). Add Valbuena to the growing list of GPP only plays on the Astros, but unlike Rasmus and Gattis, he's only in play against righties.

Jason Castro's above average wRC+ and ISO against righties in the table are aided greatly by his big 2013 season. He's been a below average offensive player against righties in the two seasons since (87 wRC+ in 2014 and 92 wRC+ in 2015). His .189 ISO and 10 homers in 264 plate appearances against right-handed pitching last season were respectable, and he'll have some punt value in his home park against righties this season.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Dallas Keuchel has posted a sub-three ERA each of the last two years, and this time, his ERA estimators supported it. The lefty kicked his strikeout rate up by more than 5.5% from 2014 to 2015, and he even pared his walk rate down from 5.9% to 5.6%. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner is a ground-ball inducing machine, and his 61.7% ground-ball rate was the second highest among qualified starters. He was remarkably consistent last season and pitched at least six innings in 32 of 33 starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in 28 starts. Keuchel's combination of floor and ceiling are tantalizing, and his skill-set fits his homer-friendly home ballpark perfectly.

Collin McHugh broke out during the 2014 season like Keuchel did, but he was unable to completely duplicate his success. He did have a solid season, though. McHugh improved his ground-ball rate from 42.1% in 2014 to 45.4% last season, and that should help him do a better job of avoiding the homer pitfalls created by his home park. After striking out over a quarter of the batters he faced in 2014 (25.4%), he fell just a hair short of a 20% strikeout rate last season. The righty's swinging strike rate of 10.3% was better than the league average of 9.9% last season, so he should get his strikeout rate back over 20% this season. He's a better than average starting pitcher who's backed by a strong offense, so he should be a popular daily play throughout the year.

Mike Fiers doesn't bring the blazing heater that typically accompanies an excellent strikeout rate like his, but he has a variety of pitches that do the trick. Last year, his fourseam fastball had a 9.83% whiff rate, the curve had a 10.14% whiff rate, his slider netted a 11.96% whiff rate and his changeup led the way with a 16.46% whiff rate, according to Brooks Baseball. None of them are an elite bat-missing pitches, but the wide variety of looks and options makes his above average strikeout rate easier to buy even with a 9.8% swinging strike rate (9.9% was the league average, according to FanGraphs). Fiers' low ground-ball rate (37.6% last year) didn't hurt him too badly with Milwaukee or Houston, but it's definitely not ideal for his home digs. His career numbers point to a mid-to-high-threes ERA with around a punch out an inning. Sign me up for that.

Doug Fister's 2015 didn't go according to plan. In fact, he didn't even remain in the rotation for Washington all year and started in just 15 of his 25 appearances. As a starter, he earned a 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA with a paltry 12.7% strikeout rate. He continued to pound the strike zone (4.8% walk rate as a starter last season), but his ground-ball rate eroded from 48.9% in 2014 (after two years of ground-ball rates above 50% with the Tigers in 2012 and 2013) to 42.0% as a starter for the Nationals. Yuck. He's got work to do in order to work his way back into the graces of daily baseball gamers, and even at his best, his low strikeout rates prevented him from being a high-ceiling option. Attacking him with hitters early in the year until -- or if -- he's able to showcase he has a rebound in him is a reasonably prudent move.

Stock Watch

Up - Lance McCullers

Carlos Correa stole the rookie headlines for the Astros, but boy oh boy was McCullers awesome. Below average control in the minors left many prospect evaluators pegging him for a high-leverage reliever role in the majors, but he made big strides throwing strikes last year and blew big leaguers away. His 46.5% ground-ball rate was solid and his strikeout rate was borderline spectacular. He tied it together with a palatable 8.3% walk rate. Overall, the ERA estimators liked his work as it resulted in a 3.26 FIP, 3.50 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. McCullers is only 22-years old and has had control issues at times, so there could be some ups and downs in his sophomore season, but as the up arrow to the left of his name suggests, his stock is up and I'm expecting more ups than downs this year.

Down - Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez got off to a slow start, and his bat crumbled with the Astros. In 163 plate appearances with Houston, he turned in just a .141 ISO, .290 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Not all was bad in his time with the Astros, though, as he stole 10 bases in 13 stolen base attempts. After back-to-back years of reaching the seats 20+ times, he hit only 12 homers in 477 plate appearances. The move from the Brewers to the Astros is actually a small backwards move for him for park factors for homers (125 at Miller Park for righties). Gomez isn't suddenly a daily baseball dud, but his stock is down after back-to-back seasons of tallying a wRC+ north of 125.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.