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2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

When we think of the Angels, we think of Mike Trout, and an aging Albert Pujols. That is about it. There are a few secondary names here we can look at, but this is still an unappealing offense. They ranked 16th in runs per game, but it was a grind to get there. The staff also boasted a bottom half ERA, which when you are rolling out Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver, that can be expected. The rotation can be a little bit better this season if Tyler Skaggs can find consistency, and Garrett Richards can find good health. The offense will likely be middle of the league in runs per game, and below average in power.

Offseason Moves

Additions: Cameron Maybin, Danny Espinosa, Luis Valbuena, Ben Revere

Subtractions: Jett Bandy

Park Factors

Mike Trout patrolling center field and this ballpark do not mix well for opposing hitters. Angel Stadium suppresses home runs and extra base hits from both sides of the plate, but even more so from the left side of the plate. The Angels offense averaged 4.1 runs per game at home, compared to 4.7 on the road. Matt Shoemaker, who is another name who needs to find good health, enjoyed a 3.05 ERA at home, compared to a 4.64 ERA on the road. Angel Stadium ranked 23rd in runs, and will continue to drive down offenses with the marine layer effect.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Yunel Escobar3B.314.068.365.149
2Kole CalhounOF.334.164.359.174
3Mike TroutOF.419.238.416.225
4Albert Pujols1B.325.173.350.239
5C.J. CronDH.353.201.284.149
6Cameron MaybinOF.351.096.353.122
7Danny Espinosa2B.293.141.297.261
8Andrelton SimmonsSS.295.076.323.113
9Martin MaldonadoC.292.168.300.102

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1Matt Shoemaker16021.43.52
2Ricky Nolasco7317.63.87
3Tyler Skaggs49.222.83.95
4Garrett Richards34.2233.32
5Alex Meyer21.225.53.93

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: C

DFS Studs:

Getting rid of Jered Weaver already made this rotation a thousand times better. The two studs of this one will need to remain healthy for long term fantasy success. Matt Shoemaker had a strong second half, allowing .290 wOBA, with a 3.00 ERA. Shoemaker also boasted better home numbers, as Angel Stadium is one of the premier pitcher parks. Shoemaker had a 13.1% swinging strike rate in 2016, with a 21.4% strikeout rate. Shoemaker had weird strikeout splits in the first and second half. His strikeout rate dropped 5%, yet was a much more consistent arm. Hopefully we can find a balance this year.

When Garrett Richards is healthy, he can be a top fantasy arm. Unfortunately he is a ticking time bomb that may or may not go off this year. If Richards can pitch to his potential, we will see a solid groundball pitcher, with a slightly above average strikeout rate. Richards can have a walk issue at times, which is frustrating against patient teams. We will be keeping our eyes on Richards early on in the season.

Tyler Skaggs is the other noteworthy name here, coming off of shortened season, where he had Tommy John surgery in 2015. He had a 23% strikeout rate in 2016, yet had a 10.6% walk rate. Skaggs will need to cut down the walks to make the next step, but the potential is there.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: D+

DFS Studs: Mike Trout

Mike Trout doesn't need much explanation for being one of the better all around fantasy players in baseball. On a daily level, I have some gripe with him. His price tag is always sky high, to the point where we really want a ton of upside if we are going that route. Trout is patient, as he had a 17% walk rate last season. The lineup around him is subpar, which downgrades his potential as well. Unless Trout becomes uber aggressive, he won't be one of my favorite pay up options.

Albert Pujols is coming off surgery, but remains a top ten first baseman. He hit 31 home runs last season, and drove in 119 RBI. He has fallen off the ladder in terms of comparing to the daily first baseman, like Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, etc. For Trout and Pujols to really hit their fantasy worth, the secondary players around will need to overachieve. Pujols being a strict DH should help his offensive production.

Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron offer the most upside out of the secondary plays here, and Calhoun has been a more reliable option. Calhoun dropped his strikeout rate, but dropped his home run total as well. He did have 35 doubles, Cron continues to have one injury a year derailing him from getting to a 20 home run season. He has decent power, but lacks a lot of upside at a loaded position. The middle infielders also remain low end options. The Angels offense will have to overachieve to get above the league average numbers.



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