Los Angeles Angels - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Angels finished just one game out of the second Wild Card spot winning 85 games. Most of the key pieces remain the same this year -- starting with Mike Trout -- but the rotation is deeper and the lineup does have a few fresh faces. The lineup isn't balanced, and there's a stud, some good hitters and some dead spots. They are somewhat stackable against right-handed pitching, but mini-stacking and hooking a couple lineup spots could prove to be the best way to maximize the point scoring from this group. The rotation is headlined by a flame thrower who isn't an elite arm, but is a very good one, and he's backed by some potentially good starters.

Park Factors

Angel Stadium is clearly a pitcher's park. It reduces run scoring by 9% to lefties and 10% to righties. It's also a tough park for hitting extra base hits in, depressing doubles/triples by 10% and homers by 9% to lefties and reducing doubles/triples by 6% and homers by 6% to righties. Pitchers of all batted ball types get a boost in value, but fly-ball pitchers are especially enticing since fly balls that stay in the park have a lower average than ground balls and line drives. None of the park factors are damning to hitters individually, but collectively they deal hitters a blow.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

* Tyler Skaggs' stats are from the 2014 season.

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Geovany Soto - 19/72

Carlos Perez - 44/72

Geovany Soto's pitch framing ranks over the last three years bounce all over the place. Last year represents his best rank in the last three years. In 2014, he was hurt most of the year, so after dropping the minimum pitches caught threshold to 500, he ranked 71st out of 91 catchers in per game pitch framing value, per StatCorner. In 2013, he ranked 29th out of 78 catchers in per game pitch framing value. Because Soto has oscillated from a below average pitch framer to an above average one in the last three years, it's best to view him as average and recognize he could provide a small boost or hurt pitchers a tiny bit catching them. Backup catcher Carlos Perez made his MLB debut last year and checked in as a slightly below average framer.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will hit leadoff?

There are a few candidates to hit leadoff, and no one who is the obvious selection. The most likely candidates for the gig a Yunel Escobar, the left field platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry, and right fielder Kole Calhoun is a long shot. Working backwards, let's look at Calhoun first.

The 28-year-old outfielder totaled 213 plate appearances hitting leadoff last year and totaled almost all of his plate appearances batting leadoff in 2014. The lack of power and offensive talent in the lineup prompted a move down in the order last year. Calhoun totaled 121 plate appearances hitting cleanup and the bulk of his time (334 plate appearances) was spent in the two-hole. By moving down from the lead-off spot, Calhoun was awarded more RBI opportunities and was more helpful to the team. He is more valuable to the Angels not hitting leadoff, and hitting second bumps his value up a tick in daily games due to having a combo of run scoring upside and RBI upside. His numbers against lefties have gone backwards each year and isn't an option in daily games against them. He is, however, a solid but unspectacular option against right-handed pitching. Calhoun posted a career-low 6.1% walk rate against righties last year and a career-high 22.9% strikeout rate against them. His production is going the wrong way, but a .174 ISO, .329 wOBA and 113 wRC+ (his marks in 2015) aren't too shabby.

The right field platoon could be appealing atop the order. Nava mostly gave up switch-hitting to hit left-handed against everyone last year. He had an awful year against righties (.057 ISO, .262 wOBA and 61 wRC+) in 2015, but he did walk often (13.3% walk rate). For his career, he has a 10.0% walk rate and .377 OBP that would look great nestled atop the order, and his .128 ISO against righties means hitting him leadoff won't remove thump from down order. Gentry payed in only 26 games in the majors last year, and he's posted a wRC+ above 100 just two times in seven partial seasons in the majors. Overall, he has exactly a 100 wRC+ against lefties. His .354 OBP against lefties would fit well atop the order, and his speed (77 stolen bases in 90 attempts in his career) would play well there, too. If the duo hits leadoff, each hitter could have punt value, but if they hit down order, they have almost no value.

Escobar is coming off a year in which he raked to the tune of a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+. His high-contact approach (11.8% strikeout rate last year) fits the top of the order well, but his OBP is batting average driven with just a 7.6% walk rate last season. He has, at times, shown more patience and has an 8.8% walk rate for his career. He's not a speedster (33 stolen bases in 1,213 games played in the majors), but if you squint, he kind of looks like a leadoff hitter. Escobar's strong offensive season was fueled by a .347 BABIP that's going to drop this year. Escobar's career BABIP is .306 and his batted ball data from last year isn't much different than it was in 2014 when he sported a .282 BABIP. If he hits leadoff, Escobar's run scoring upside will provide him modest daily baseball value, but third base has more depth than his previous position, shortstop. The ceiling is low for Escobar, and if he hits down order, he'll have almost no daily baseball value.

Who will be the fifth starter?

Four spots in the rotation are basically accounted for -- even if Jered Weaver probably should be the most expensive swingman in the majors as opposed to a lock for the rotation. The last spot is up for grabs, and there could be as many as four pitchers competing for the spot. The pitchers in the mix are Nicholas Tropeano, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker and Tyler Skaggs. Santiago posted a strong 3.59 ERA, but his ERA estimators are all almost (or more than) a run higher. I'll write him off as a long shot. Tropeano's work in the majors last year should warrant a fair shot at a rotation spot, but his 4.08 FIP and 4.81 ERA in 16 starts at the Triple-A level are hardly ringing endorsements for him starting for the parent club. That leaves Shoemaker and Skaggs as the most likely candidates to be the fifth starter.

Shoemaker was brilliant in 2014, but he struggled mightily last year. His strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate jumped a bit, too. Even with a few more walks last year, Shoemaker's control (6.2% walk rate) was considerably better than league average (7.7% was the league average walk rate in 2015, per FanGraphs). His strikeout rate was exactly league average, too. Shoemaker's fly-ball leanings (42.4% fly-ball rate) fits his home ballpark well, but it leaves him susceptible to home run issues, and they were a problem last year (1.60 HR/9). He'd make for a solid number-five starter in many rotation as a league average-ish pitcher with a bit more upside than that, but that profile might not be enough to beat out Skaggs for the last spot in the rotation.

Skaggs missed the entire 2015 season recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent on August 14, 2014. He's had ample time to recover, but he'll probably be under some type of innings restriction. The lefty has already stated he won't run into the same communication issues that Matt Harvey did last year, but what that means for how he and the club will map out his innings for this year is unclear. Skaggs was much better than his 4.30 ERA in 2014 suggested. The lefty also tallied a 3.55 FIP, 3.65 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA with a 50.1% ground-ball rate and 6.5% walk rate. Skaggs struggled to strand runners (63.9% LOB%), but he didn't have issues with stranding runners in the minors, making it unlikely to be a legitimate long-term issue. Before his elbow blew out, Skaggs' velocity on his fourseam fastball and sinker sat between 92-93 mph on average compared to hanging around 90 mph in 2011-2013. He backs his fourseam fastball and sinker with a changeup (85.11 mph on average in 2014, per Brooks Baseball) and curve (77.53 mph). The pitch mix gives him everything he needs to get lefties and righties out. Every pitcher recovers from Tommy John differently, but if Skaggs picks up where he left off, there's a lot of upside for him this year.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Mike Trout is arguably the best player in the majors and one of the best offensive players. Among qualified hitters since 2013, he cracks the top 10 in ISO against lefties and righties and ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties and righties as well. Suffice to say, Trout's one of the best daily baseball options in all game types against any handedness of pitcher. Trout will not only be on many rosters that cash big this year, he'll be the driving force behind those cashes.

Albert Pujols is arguably the best right-handed hitter of this generation. He isn't the same player he was in his peak, but his 40 homers last year are the most he's hit since 2010. He still makes a ton of contact (10.9% strikeout rate), but his batting average torpedoed to a career-low .244 last season. Predictably, his .307 OBP was the lowest of his career, too. Once one of the most reliable and highest-floor hitters in the game, he's now a boom-or-bust slugger (.236 ISO last season). Pujols' pop gives him plenty of upside for GPP usage, but his profile doesn't fit cash games well.

C.J. Cron was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft based on his bat, but he never really lit the upper minors on fire. He's been a slightly above average hitter in his year and a half in the majors, but his .184 ISO, .320 wOBA and 108 wRC+ fail to stand out at first base. He has a reverse platoon split in the majors, but in the minors, he has a standard platoon split. According to Minor League Central, he has a .229 ISO and .914 OPS in 397 plate appearances in the minors against lefties. The larger sample size that supports a standard platoon split makes it hard to believe he'll continue to hit righties harder than lefties in the majors. Cron's daily baseball value is limited.

The trio that round out the lineup is highly unexciting. Andrelton Simmons' glove is arguably the best in the game, but his bat is well below average. Simmons doesn't have much pop (sub-.100 ISO the last two years) and rarely steals bases (16 in 499 games). Geovany Soto can run into a mistake and put it in the seats (19 homers in 481 plate appearances since 2013), but his overall offensive profile hovers around average over the last three years. Finally, Johnny Giovatella is a light-hitting second baseman who has just 10 steals in 254 games played. None of these three are likely to have more than punt value in 2016.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Garrett Richards is the clear-cut ace of the staff. His strikeout rate took a step back from his breakout 2014 campaign (24.2% in 2014 and 20.4% last year), but his swinging strike rate actually went up from 10.8% to 11.1%. The hard-throwing righty ranked tied for 18th among qualified pitchers in swinging strike rate. I'm bullish on Richards strikeout rate approaching his 2014 mark this year. He'd already started to work his way back to 2014 strikeout form in the second half moving from a 18.3% strikeout rate in the first half to a 22.3% strikeout rate in the second half. His control is spotty (8.8% walk rate last year), but he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (54.9% ground-ball rate). Richards' mediocre to below average control makes him susceptible to an occasional clunker, but his high-octane arsenal, ability to overpower hitters and his knack for coaxing worm burners provides him sky-high upside. Richards is a stronger play in GPPs than cash games, but that's not to say he should be dismissed in cash games.

C.J. Wilson's season ended at the end of July. He underwent surgery to have bone chips and spurs removed from his left elbow, but he faces no restrictions entering the spring. Last season Wilson tallied a 8.3% walk rate was the second lowest of his career and his 19.9% strikeout rate wasn't awful. The lefty's ground-ball rate checked in at a career-low 43.1% in 2015, though. His ERA estimators were worse than his ERA, but Wilson's work suggests he's a high-threes to low-fours true-talent pitcher. That's playable in the right matchup as an SP2 or low-end GPP option on single-pitcher sites when the matchup is right.

Stock Watch

Up - Andrew Heaney

Skaggs isn't the only young lefty with upside for the daily baseball community to get a bit excited about, Andrew Heaney fits that bill, too. Heaney's profile isn't that different from Skaggs, though, while Skaggs is a ground-ball pitcher, Heaney featured just a 38.3% ground-ball rate last year. The former Marlin limited free passes (6.4% walk rate last season) and features a three-pitch mix (sinker, curve and changeup) that should allow him to retire lefties and righties. His sinker averaged 91.82 mph and his change (83.38 mph on average) and curve (80.04 mph on average) gives him options to change speed and movement keeping hitters off balance. Righties rattled off a .315 wOBA against him that was somewhat lucky (35.7% hard-hit ball rate), but the goods are there for Heaney to improve against them even if that just means he retains his current wOBA allowed in a less lucky fashion. The young lefty isn't a stud, but he looks more big league ready at this point than he did at the same time last year and a viable daily option.

Down - Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver's made a lucrative career out of beating his ERA estimators (3.40 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.21 xFIP and 4.05 SIERA in his career). Technically, he beat his ERA estimators last year, too (4.64 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 5.10 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA), but he was awful. Weaver's already low velo bottomed out last season. His fourseam fastball averaged 87.50 mph and his sinker average 86.49 mph in 2014, and those averages dropped to 84.30 mph and 83.52 mph, respectively. Weaver's swinging strike rate tumbled from 9.0% in 2014 to 8.3% last year, and his strikeout rate followed suit dropping from 19.0% to 13.5%. At 33-years old, it's hard to imagine Weaver recapturing the approximately three mph he lost on his fastballs last year, and if he doesn't, there little reason to believe he can rebound. Pick on Weaver with batters early and often. With just one year left on Weaver's contract, the Angels have little incentive to continue to trot Weaver out to the mound start after start if it's more of the same from last year.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.