MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Vegas Win Total Projection: 92.5
The Dodgers are one of only two teams that project to win more than 90 games, according to Pinnacle Sports, and they project to win more games than everyone except the Nationals. The lineup and rotation feature top-shelf talent as well as some bargains.
Park Factors
Homers get a pick-me-up at Dodgers Stadium with lefties getting a 23% boost and righties getting a 14% lift there compared to neutral parks. Run scoring, however, is actually suppressed by 6% to lefties and 11% to right-handed batters. The ideal pitcher to use at Dodgers Stadium is one who induces ground balls at a high rate since they'll avoid the homer issues while benefiting from the run suppression.
Park Factors |
LHB |
RHB |
K |
100 |
107 |
BB (unintentional BB +HBP) |
86 |
85 |
1B |
98 |
93 |
2/3B |
96 |
94 |
HR |
123 |
114 |
Runs |
94 |
89 |
gbH (GBs turning into hits/errors) |
104 |
95 |
ofH (Outfield FBs, excluding HR, turning into hits/errors) |
91 |
93 |
GB |
102 |
103 |
FB |
104 |
100 |
LD |
96 |
93 |
IF |
125 |
95 |
Projected Lineup
|
|
|
| Since '12 vs LHP ISO | Since '12 vs RHP ISO | Since '12 vs LHP wRC+ | Since '12 vs RHP wRC+ |
1 | Jimmy Rollins | S | SS | .106 | .156 | 77 | 104 |
2 | Carl Crawford | L | LF | .144 | .133 | 97 | 116 |
3 | Yasiel Puig | R | RF | .165 | .207 | 144 | 155 |
4 | Adrian Gonzalez | L | 1B | .154 | .191 | 105 | 131 |
5 | Howie Kendrick | R | 2B | .156 | .104 | 133 | 103 |
6 | Yasmani Grandal | S | C | .154 | .172 | 104 | 125 |
7 | Joc Pederson | L | CF | .000 | .000 | -34 | 88 |
8 | Juan Uribe | R | 3B | .148 | .132 | 84 | 114 |
9 | Pitcher | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Projected Rotation
|
|
|
IP |
K% |
FIP |
1 |
Clayton Kershaw |
L |
198.1 |
31.9 |
1.81 |
2 |
Zack Greinke |
R |
202.1 |
25.2 |
2.97 |
3 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
L |
152.0 |
22.0 |
2.62 |
4 |
Brandon McCarthy |
R |
200.0 |
20.9 |
3.55 |
5 |
Brett Anderson |
L |
43.1 |
16.1 |
2.99 |
Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks
Yasmani Grandal- 10/79
A.J. Ellis- 62/79
The offensive upgrade the Dodgers will enjoy at catcher as a result of their offseason acquisition of Yasmani Grandal is apparent to even casual fans. The pitch framing gains they'll get from moving A.J. Ellis to the bench in favor of Grandal will slip by the casual gamer but are probably even greater. Grandal was one of the best pitch framers in the league last year while Ellis was one of the worst, and all Dodgers pitchers will benefit from the switch as a result.
Spring Training Storylines
How much time with Yasmani Grandal cede to A.J. Ellis?
There is some sense that A.J. Ellis could serve as Clayton Kershaw's personal catcher. If that's the case, it could hurt Grandal's playing time. The former Padre should net the majority of starts, but whether that's a 60/40 split or something closer to 70/30 remains to be seen. Reports are positive regarding the impression Grandal is making on his teammates, though, and his offensive upside far exceeds that of Ellis.
Who will sit for Scott Van Slyke against lefties?
Carl Crawford seems like a reasonable guess as to who will take a seat in favor of Scott Van Slyke when the Dodgers face a southpaw, but maybe that won't be the case. Crawford has sandwiched a 128 wRC+ (2012) and 151 wRC+ (2014) around a dreadful 56 wRC+ (2013) over the last three years. Adrian Gonzalez, however, has slipped from a 128 wRC+ in 2012 to a 108 wRC+ in 2013 and a 68 wRC+ last year against southpaws. Van Slyke played 21 games at first base last year, and additional playing time at the position this year could be in the cards for him. One thing that is clear, he should be a safe bet to see regular playing time against lefties since he owns a .263 ISO and 151 wRC+ against them in 232 plate appearances since reaching the majors in 2012.
2015 Lineup Outlook
Jimmy Rollins joins a more formidable offense as a result of being dealt from the only organization he's ever played for (the Phillies) to the Dodgers. The switch-hitting shortstop shouldn't be used against lefties, but he's an above average hitter against right-handed pitchers and leading off for an offense that should do a ton of run scoring. He'll often be one of the best options at his position when the Dodgers face a righty, and he'll be cheaper than the truly elite players at shortstop.
Crawford pummeled lefties last year, as I noted above, but the left-handed hitter will probably be best utilized against right-handed pitchers. The former Devil Ray has been an average or better hitter against right-handed pitchers, as measured by wRC+, in 10 of 13 seasons in the majors. Two of his below average seasons came in his first two seasons in the league. Hitting second will award him big run scoring upside and a bit of RBI potential hitting behind Rollins. Consider the speedy outfielder a potential middle-tier or cheap outfield option when facing right-handed pitchers.
Yasiel Puig offers some of the most tantalizing tools in baseball. He has power and speed, and he's been a well above average hitter against right-handed and left-handed pitching. I'd expect him to eventually demonstrate a more traditional platoon split hitting left-handed pitchers better than righties. For now, he's a pricey pick who could be worth spending heavily on when facing a pitcher who struggles mightily with right-handed batters, regardless of the handedness of that pitcher.
Gonzalez is a non-option against lefties, but the club's projected cleanup hitter is still good against right-handed pitchers. His struggles against lefties could prove to be a blessing in disguise if they bring down his cost when he faces right-handed pitchers. Last year, A-Gonz totaled a 150 wRC+ and .236 ISO versus right-handed pitching. The uptick in ISO from 2012 and 2013 is great news for his 2015 outlook, and as the cleanup hitter in a strong offense, his run production upside is immense. He'll be cheaper than some of elite first basemen such as Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion and Paul Goldschmidt, but when he's facing a right-handed pitcher in an offensive-friendly ballpark, he might possess as much upside at a slight discount.
Howie Kendrick takes his talent from the other "Los Angeles" team to the Dodgers this year. He's a slightly above average hitter against right-handed pitchers, but he's best reserved for using against left-handed pitchers due to his excellence against them. Since 2012, Kendrick ranks tied for third among qualified second basemen in wRC+.
Grandal is a switch-hitter who is better batting left-handed. That's optimal since Dodgers Stadium amplifies homers more to lefties than righties and depresses run scoring to left-handed batters less than righties.
Joc Pederson is finally going to have a chance to play every day after hammering minor league pitching the last three years. He's raking this spring and projects to be an above average hitter with above average power and base stealing skills. If he's able to make a seamless transition to the majors (ignore his cup of coffee last year), there is potential for him to move up in the Dodgers order, which would improve his daily game value substantially.
Juan Uribe relied on an unsustainable BABIP to be an above average offensive player last year. As the eight hitter in a National League lineup, Uribe's upside is limited. He could be a bargain pick on rare occasions, but more often than not, he won't be on daily game rosters. He could eventually lose his starting job to stud prospect shortstop Corey Seager.
2015 Pitching Outlook
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game. There is no debating that. His price will be through the roof every time he takes the hill, but he'll often be worth spending on in cash games since he's reliable and scores tons of points. In GPPs, he'll hamstring spending to the point where it might be worth looking elsewhere if you're hoping to shoot the moon and win those contests. Of course, he's so dominant that hitting on him and a few bargain picks can also be good enough to take down a GPP. Basically, Kershaw is a stud, but you already knew that.
Zack Greinke would be the ace of many other staffs. He punched out more than a quarter of the batters he faced last year, ranked 14th among qualified starters in FIP and ninth in K-BB% (20.0%). He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (48.7% ground ball rate), and he's a daily baseball ace at DK and FD.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will open the year on the disabled list. He's experiencing shoulder pain and is shutdown for the next couple weeks. An MRI revealed no structural damage. When he's healthy, Ryu is excellent. In 2014, he ranked seventh in FIP among starters who pitched a minimum for 140 innings and 21st in K-BB% (17.4%).
Brandon McCarthy enjoyed a career year last season. It was the first in which he reached the 200 innings plateau, and he hit that number right on the nose. He has pinpoint control, tallied a hearty 52.6% ground ball rate and bested the league average in strikeout rate ever so slightly. McCarthy really thrived after being dealt from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees. As a member of the Yankees, he cut down on his sinker usage and bumped up his fourseam fastball and cutter usage, per Brooks Baseball. McCarthy doesn't generate the fanfare of his supremely talented rotation mates, but he's a really good pitcher in his own right and an excellent daily game option who will be much cheaper than the other Dodgers starting pitchers.
Brett Anderson is a nightmare to own in season long leagues since he's oft-injured, but daily gamers don't have to concern themselves with that. When he's healthy, he's basically Dallas Keuchel before Dallas Keuchel blew up last year. The former Athletic induces ground balls at a rate that will flirt with the league lead, pounds the strike zone and strikes out batters at a below average -- yet acceptable -- rate. He makes for a nice SP2 pick on DK and a strong pitching selection on FD when he and the Dodgers are betting favorites.
Stock Watch
Up- Yasmani Grandal
Grandal upgrades ballparks in a big way moving from Petco Park to Dodgers Stadium. He also goes from a dreadful lineup to an excellent one. He has a chance to emerge as one of the best offensive catchers in the majors this year.
Down- Hyun-Jin Ryu
No structural damage to Ryu's shoulder is good. Unfortunately, he dealt with similar shoulder discomfort last season. If not for the injury concerns, he'd be viewed as a highly useful daily baseball option. Until he's able to put his shoulder woes behind him, though, he's a non-option. You can't tally fantasy points from the disabled list.
Daily Fantasy Outlook
The offense is as deep as any in the majors. There isn't a player who can immediately be written off as a non-option. If manager Don Mattingly is willing to juggle his lineup depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, there is stack potential against left-handed and right-handed pitchers.
The rotation has star power at the top. It also features talent in the middle and at the back end. In other words, when healthy, it features five pitchers who daily gamers can turn to frequently. The rotation calls a pitcher-friendly ballpark home, throws to a great pitch-framing catcher, and is backed by a strong offense. That's the trifecta of awesome.
Resources
StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.
ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs
StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.
Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports
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