Making Sense of MLB Stats: The Impact of Lineup Slot

Making Sense of MLB Stats: The Impact of Lineup Slot

MLB DFS is such a fantastic game because of the multiple layers of research that can be done to improve your game. By now, I am sure you are familiar with advanced stats such as wOBA, xFIP, ISO and many more (if you aren't, we will be having an upcoming article diving into these stats).

One important factor that can go undervalued or unnoticed is the impact of a lineup position on a DFS player. In the NBA, most of our daily fantasy value is created when a bench or role player is propelled into a starting lineup. As you know, your night will depend heavily on how well you are able to evaluate underpriced players based on opportunity.

The same can be said for daily fantasy MLB, however, our value is created from an increased opportunity within the batting order.

Daily fantasy sites price players based on performance as well as matchups. For the most part, players will be placed a majority of the time in a lineup slot based on their skill and opposing pitcher.

Below we will address each respective graph to address and explain how or why the batting order can be valued.

What the graph shows: The graph clearly displays a correlation to fantasy points per game and batting in the top half of the order. Lineup slots one through five all average over six fantasy points per game, while lineup slot six through nine all under less than six fantasy points per game. From data, our highest scoring lineup slot is number three barely edging out lineup slot number one.

How we use the data: Earlier we discussed that price is generated by performance and we see a distinct difference in performance based on lineup position. This can provide us value if we have a number-eight batter moved into the number-two slot due to his price being based on a lineup slot eight performance.

Likely reason for these results: One of the best ways to understand why a player's value significantly increases from a fantasy points per game perspective is by understanding the players who are influencing them. A batter in the seven-hole is greatly impacted by lineup number six, eight and nine. As we discussed earlier, those lineup positions score less than six fantasy points per game with the number-nine batter under three fantasy points per game. This means that if our seven-hole batter gets on base he likely isn't having anyone bring him in for a run.

The opposite is true if we put that batter in the number-two slot. An underpriced hitter in the number-two hole is sandwiched by the two highest scoring fantasy point per game lineup slots out of nine. The likelihood of this player getting on base and being driven in to score a run is significantly higher due to the players around him.

What the graph shows: Talk about a direct correlation to number of plate appearances per game versus batting order. We have a direct positive correlation to the number of plate appearances a player sees per game based on his lineup position. A batter batting first, second or third will likely see around one more plate appearance per game versus a batter in the eight slot.

How we use this data: We will say this again, player pricing on fantasy sites is based on performance. If we have a player gaining an increased opportunity in plate appearances he has a higher likelihood of outperforming his previous averages. An extreme example would be having two players in your lineup in the eight slot versus the first or second slot. We would be losing, on average, two plate appearances per game. When a single plate appearance can make or break your night we want to maximize the number of opportunities we have.

Likely reason for results: There is a very easy reason for the results and it is based on order and performance. Every team starts the game with 27 outs. This means that if a game goes the full nine innings and a team gets no hit, each player will go zero for three and the game will end on the number nine slot. However, if a team just records two hits, the number one and number two slot have four plate appearances versus the rest of the team receiving three. I don't know about you, but I will take a player getting four plate appearances versus three every single day.

What the graph shows: Our RBI dominant lineup slots are in the three, four and five slots. This should not come as a surprise as we have discussed the impact of lineup position. The number three and four slots will have players ahead of them on base at a more frequent measure than say the number eight slot. This means that those lineup slots are being put in position to drive runs in and accumulate fantasy points.

How we use this data: Targeting power replacement hitters or contact hitters in the three and four lineup slot will increase their RBI per game rate due to their respective lineup slot.

What the graph shows: This shows a direct correlation between runs scored per game and lineup slot. A player batting in the first slot will score more runs than a batter in the fifth spot. This does not mean the number-one hitter is better overall than the number-five hitter because we noted number five will score more runs.

How we use the data: By targeting a player who is typically batting in the eight-slot and has been moved to the top three, we can gain significant value due to them scoring more runs per game based purely on their batting order.

Closing

We have discussed each important aspect of batting order versus fantasy production, opportunity and value. It is now your job to monitor lineup cards and prices to determine which player is underpriced based on their lineup position. When you see an underpriced typical eight-hole batter in the second spot, you are gaining value and should consider him for your daily fantasy lineups.