2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

Miami was a bottom five offense in 2016, averaging 4.07 runs per game. It was a down year for Giancarlo Stanton, who is set to rebound in 2017, which should jump the Marlins offense a bit. The pitching is bailed out by a premium pitcher's park, but the rotation will take a huge step back with the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez. Miami added a few pitchers that should be serviceable this year, but this is still a below average rotation. The Marlins will probably be a .500 team again, but it wouldn't surprise me if they stay in the Wild Card race in September.

Offseason Moves

Additions: Dan Straily, Edinson Volquez, Jeff Locke

Subtractions:

Park Factors

Marlins Park is a pitcher's paradise, and even with them moving the fences in, it hasn't made much of a difference. The offseason additions will enjoy these ballparks, although Volquez and Locke played in pitcher's parks as well. Marlins park suppressed home runs from both sides of the plate, and was average for extra base hits. In 2016, Marlins Park ranked 26th in home runs, and 27th in runs.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Dee Gordon2B.286.075.255.041
2Martin Prado3B.303.103.452.144
3Christian YelichOF.386.215.312.100
4Giancarlo StantonOF.331.237.391.295
5Marcell OzunaOF.315.154.384.306
6Justin Bour1B.356.228.229.067
7J.T. RealmutoC.348.123.269.140
8Adeiny HechavarriaSS.258.071.250.090
9PitcherP----

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1Wei-Yin Chen123.119.24.50
2Tom Koehler176.2194.60
3Edinson Volquez189.116.34.57
4Dan Straily191.120.54.88
5Adam Conley133.121.24.20

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: D+

DFS Studs:

This rotation wasn't great last season, but having one of the league's best pitchers on your team masked the problems. This year, that will not be the case. Miami went out and grabbed Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily, and Jeff Locke. They will benefit moving to Miami, which is an above average pitcher's park. The returning guys, Wei-Yen Chen struggled last season, allowing a 1.61 HR/9, which was odd moving out of Baltimore that his HR/9 would go up. I have little hope for Chen improving his numbers. Tom Koehler is someone who consistently hovers around the four ERA mark, and has below average stats to back him for every getting under it. Koehler continues to have a poor WHIP, owning a 1.47 WHIP last season. His walk rate was also in the double digits.

Adam Conley is actually viable, but in a deep tournament sense on most slates. His walk rate is extremely high, but offers up a 9.9% swinging strike rate in his career. Conley allowed a .292 wOBA at home, compared to .347 on the road. All these pitchers are much more usable in Marlins Park, so keep that in mind. If Conley can resort to his first half last season, he will be a GPP at most. If his second half numbers continue, stay away.

After the Marlins went out and grabbed Volquez, some might have been excited. His diminished strikeout rate is an issue in the daily format, and he has had an xFIP above four for six years in a row. Volquez allowed over a .340 wOBA to both sides of the plate, and his time might be catching up with him. Straily over performed his ERA estimators, and is home run prone. I worry about him this season, even moving out of Cincinnati, where he oddly had a 2.90 ERA at home. A low groundball rate, and right-handers hitting him well have me worried.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: C+

DFS Studs: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich

Miami possesses three relevant outfielders, and 2016's stud was Christian Yelich. He had a 14 home run increase from 2016, which resulted in a big bump in ISO to .185. Yelich can steal a base, but don't count on him to. Yelich hit better outside of Miami, which is no surprise. He had a .222 ISO on the road, compared to a .143 ISO. Yelich's increased fly-ball rate, and 41% hardball rate against right-handed pitching, has me ready to deploy in 2017.

Giancarlo Stanton was injured, and failed to hit 30+ home runs in consecutive seasons. He still had a .249 ISO, and still carries a high strikeout rate. Stanton has potential to hit 35+ home runs, and be a 100 RBI guy. This offense around him isn't bad either, and can set him up to do so. Once again, the daily world doesn't have to worry about the injury history, just more so him not basically being Chris Carter. Marcell Ozuna had 23 home runs last season, and hit .266. After a down 2015, he came back around in 2016, and got back to crushing lefties. He had a .306 ISO off of them in 2016. Martin Prado was in a similar boat against southpaws, boasting a .452 wOBA.

After a surprise PED suspension, Dee Gordon had 30 SB in 2016, after having 58 in a prior season. Stolen bases are the only reason to target Gordon,



Comments
No comments.