Miami Marlins - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Marlins finished a distant third in the National League East with 71 wins last year. They simply couldn't overcome substantial missed time by their stud hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, and their ace pitcher, Jose Fernandez, among others. There's young talent with upside in the lineup, and the rotation is fronted by one of the top pitchers in baseball. There may be some daily baseball options beyond the ace in the rotation, too.

Park Factors

Hitting dingers in Miami is a tall task. The park suppresses homers to righties by 23% and lefties by 30%. Lefties get double punished with a 12% knock to run scoring. Right-handed batters, though, shouldn't immediately be dismissed as an option in Miami since they get a bump to run scoring by 5% and doubles/triples by 5%. Right-handed line-driver or gap-power hitters profile as solid plays in Miami. Also, righty-heavy lineups might have some sneaky stack value in Miami since the perception is that the ballpark is death on offense. Fly-ball pitchers stand out as beneficiaries from the home run suppressing nature of the park.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

J.T. Realmuto - 57/72

Jeff Mathis - 24/72

J.T. Realmuto played in just 11 games in 2014 and 126 in 2015, so the sample of his pitch framing is still small-ish, but his limited work in 2014 backs up his below average framing rank in 2015. Realmuto didn't enter the professional ranks as a catcher, and thus, his lack of above average pitch framing skills shouldn't come as a surprise. Jeff Mathis' 2015 pitch framing ranks make him a slight asset behind the dish, and it's supported by a similar rank (31 out of 79) in 2014. On days Mathis gets the nod behind the dish, the probable starter gets a small uptick in value but not a big one.

Spring Training Storylines

Where will Christian Yelich bat?

Christian Yelich totaled 218 plate appearances in the two-hole last year and 181 plate appearances batting third. His skills fit well as a table setter hitting second, but the club could opt to move Martin Prado up to second in the order and use Giancarlo Stanton in the cleanup spot with Yelich hitting third. The lineup arrangement in which Prado hits second and Yelich hits third would allow the Marlins to stagger lefties and righties all the way from first through sixth in the order. Dee Gordon's reverse platoon split doesn't necessarily require the team to stagger lefties and righties in the top two spots, though, and Yelich's high OBP (.366 last year and .365 for his career) and middling power (.116 ISO last year and identical mark for his career) are a better fit for second than third. Either spot would provide him daily baseball value, but hitting third would award him a bit more RBI upside without hurting his run scored upside.

Who fills the rotation behind Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen?

Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen are firmly locked into the rotation. Jarred Cosart's strong arm should net him a rotation spot even if his statistics don't support a guaranteed rotation spot. Tom Koehler's numbers fit those of a back-end starter, and he led the team in starts last year with 31. That likely leaves the fifth spot as the only spot truly up for grabs.

Justin Nicolino is a lefty who dominated the low minors but missed fewer bats in the upper minors. He struck out only 11.8% of the Double-A batters he faced in 2014 before sporting a 12.9% strikeout rate at the Triple-A level and 7.6% strikeout rate in the majors last year. His control is above average, but his stuff is that of a swingman or long reliever as opposed to a steady back-end starter. He is only 23-years old, though, and if the team thinks it can coax more out of his pitches, he could crack the rotation. He started a dozen games last year, and he'll likely pick up some starts this year, but he probably isn't the best option for the number-five starter when the team breaks camp if they fancy themselves contenders.

Brad Hand made a dozen starts and 26 appearances out of the bullpen for Miami last year, and he was much better out of the bullpen than starting (4.89 FIP and 4.64 xFIP as a starter and 2.80 FIP and 3.66 xFIP as a reliever). David Phelps also worked as a starter and a reliever last year making four appearances in relief while starting 19 games. Phelps' 4.03 FIP and 4.35 xFIP were back-end starter quality, but they were nothing to get excited about. Edwin Jackson made 47 appearances as a reliever last year and zero starts for the first time in his big league career. He might get a crack at starting, but in his last three years as a starter (2012-2014), he posted a 5.00 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 3.90 xFIP. While the ERA estimators might suggest he was unlucky during that three year stretch, his .357 wOBA allowed to 1,055 lefties during that time frame indicates he just doesn't have the goods to get lefties out. If any of these starters round of the rotation for the Marlins, load up on hitters against them.

The most intriguing fifth starter option is Adam Conley. The southpaw made 15 appearances that included 11 starts for Miami last season. As a starter, Conley tallied a 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 3.66 FIP, 4.09 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA. His batted ball profile was neutral with a 40.4% ground-ball rate and 40.9% fly-ball rate. He did a good job of avoid the sweet spot of bats allowing just a 18.7% line-drive rate and 22.7% hard hit ball rate. If he pitched enough innings to qualify, his hard hit ball rate would have been the third lowest in the majors behind only Dallas Keuchel and Jake Arrieta, the Cy Young Award winners from the American League and National League. Conley had a 10.3% swinging strike rate, better than the league average of 9.9%, per FanGraphs. According to Brooks Baseball, Conley's three-pitch mix of a fourseam fastball, change and slider featured two put-away pitches. The slider had a whiff percentage of 15.92% and the changeup's mark was 17.24%. His fourseam fastball even had a useful 8.74% whiff rate. His average fastball velocity of 91.52 mph is good for a lefty, and with his changeup averaging 83.85 mph and the slider sitting at 84.91 mph on average, he has all the good necessary to work through an order multiple times and retire lefties and righties. The 25-year old starter is hands down the most intriguing of the fifth starter candidates, and he might even challenge Chen for the second most valuable daily baseball starting pitching option for the Marlins this year.

2016 Lineup Outlook

I was as skeptical as anyone of Dee Gordon's breakout 2014. All he did was hit .333 and steal 58 bases in his encore and first season with the Marlins in 2015. His tiny walk rate of 3.8% last year puts a lot of pressure on him hitting for a high average to get on base. Gordon's .383 BABIP last year is high even for a speedster, but his career mark is .346 so regression shouldn't crush his value. The second baseman improved his contact rate and whittled his strikeout rate down from 16.5% in 2014 to 13.9% last season. Gordon can be used against lefties and righties, and the key numbers to analyze when determining his daily baseball value on a given day are the stolen base allowed numbers for the probable starter and catcher battery he's facing.

Christian Yelich is built to be a table setter. He's walked in 10.2% of his career plate appearances and walked 9.0% of the time last year. He's used a line-drive and ground-ball batted ball profile (22.0% line-drive rate and 61.9% ground-ball rate) to rack up a .290 batting average in his career, and the juicy walk rate has helped yield a .365 OBP. The bad news is that his lack of fly balls caps his home run upside, but his batted ball profile also supports his high BABIP (.365 for his career and .370 last year). He also helps offset his modest power with some solid stolen base skills. Last year, he stole 16 bases in 21 attempts and in 2014 he stole 21 in 28 attempts. The ceiling isn't through the roof, but Yelich has multi-hit upside with the ability to add a stolen base and runs scored. He's a below average hitter against lefties, though, so only use him against righties.

Giancarlo Stanton is incredibly unlucky when it comes to his health, but the good news is that his injuries have been of the freakish variety as opposed to the type to be worried about re-occurring. He's arguably the best power hitter in the game and led the majors last year in average home run and fly ball distance (322.96 feet), according to Baseball Heat Maps, and also led the way in max exit velocity, average exit velocity, average fly ball and line drive exit velocity and average home run distance, per Baseball Savant. Among batters with a minimum of 300 plate appearances against southpaws since 2013, Stanton ranks first in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. He's the best lefty-killer in the game. He's also one of the top hitters in the majors when facing a righty ranking eighth in ISO, tied for 16th in wOBA and tied for 20th in wRC+ among hitters with a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances against them since 2013. Stanton is a daily baseball stud who is a big ticket item worth spending on in all game types.

Justin Bour is a traditional slugging first baseman. He received a cup of coffee in the majors in 2014, but last year was his first full year in the bigs. The big man crushed 23 homers in 446 plate appearances, and all of them were hit against right-handed pitchers. He's awful against lefties, but his .249 ISO, .359 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in his first year in his rookie season are somewhat attention grabbing. He's not the most patient hitter with just a 7.5% walk rate against right-handed pitching last season, but his power plays well in GPPs, and as a cherry on top, he should be a cheap option at first base.

Martin Prado has an extreme platoon split that extends beyond the three-year sample in the table above. For his career, Prado owns a .165 ISO, .359 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against southpaws and a .121 ISO, .324 wOBA and 101 wRC+ against righties. Last season, he had a .140 ISO, .362 wOBA and 130 wRC+ against lefties and a .096 ISO, .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Suffice to say, he's a much better play against lefties than righties.

J.T. Realmuto's bat didn't turn heads at the High-A level in 2012 or the Double-A level in 2013, but it woke up in his repeat visit to the Double-A circuit in 2014. That season, he posted a .374 wOBA and 132 wRC+ with eight homers and 18 stolen bases in 423 plate appearances. He didn't have a big platoon split, but he was better against lefties that year and tallied a .170 ISO and .402 wOBA, according to Minor League Central. He played in 11 games in the majors that year, and after playing three games in Triple-A last season, he was promoted to the majors for the duration of the year. His above average athleticism allowed him to swipe eight bags. The young catcher had a notable platoon split and ripped lefties to the tune of a .191 ISO, .335 wOBA and 112 wRC+. Realmuto has a nifty blend of skills rarely seen at catcher and is a value option with upside against lefties.

Adeiny Hechavarria is an elite defender at shortstop. Unfortunately, you don't get fantasy points for defense. He has middling power and speed. Add in the fact he should be hitting eighth, and there's basically nothing to like about him from a daily fantasy perspective.

2016 Pitching Outlook

It wasn't exactly smooth sailing for Jose Fernandez in his return from Tommy John surgery last year. He hit the disabled list in August with stiffness in his right shoulder and a right bicep strain. That's the only hiccup in his return, though. Fernandez was superb in 11 starts spinning a 2.62 xFIP, 2.77 SIERA and 24.5% K-BB% in addition to his jaw-dropping numbers in the table above. The righty's 13.3% swinging strike rate would have ranked tied for sixth among qualified pitchers if he had pitched enough innings to be a qualified pitcher. Once again playing the if he pitched enough innings to be a qualified pitcher game, he would have ranked second in FIP, fourth in xFIP and sixth in SIERA. He's a stud and on the short list of pitchers who has a compelling case as the best pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw.

Tom Koehler is a below-average starter. His 4.53 FIP was half a run higher than the league average in 2015. He's not someone to use on daily baseball rosters. Normally, this would be the part of a bad pitcher's analysis where I suggest using a certain handedness of hitter against him. Unfortunately, Koehler's splits are all over the map and not extreme. For his career, he's allowed a .314 wOBA to lefties and a .330 wOBA to righties. However, last year he allowed a .332 wOBA to lefties and just a .313 wOBA to righties. His numbers against lefties have bounced all over the map in his career and his wOBA allowed to righties has improved every year in the majors. Feel free to use good hitters against Koehler, but average to worse hitters don't get much of a bump in value due to facing him.

Jarred Cosart is a below average pitcher who pitched above who overachieved his peripheral numbers in 2013 and 2014, but he turned into a pumpkin last year. The story with Cosart in some ways mirrors that of Koehler. Cosart allowed a .376 wOBA to 98 righties in 2013, a .293 wOBA to 379 of them in 2014 and a .342 wOBA to 154 of them last year. Lefties have totaled a .297 wOBA against him in his career, but that total is aided greatly by a .236 wOBA allowed in his rookie season in 2013. He's walked a whopping 12.6% of the lefties he's faced in his career, but he keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate (61.9% ground-ball rate in his career) and has avoided hard contact (25.3% hard hit ball rate). For now, it looks like gamers should target righties against Cosart. Lefties are less exciting to use against him as a result of his big ground-ball rate and the lack of hard contact he's serving up. If, however, lefties manage more hard hit balls against him this year and cast into doubt his ability to limit hard contact, they'll also enter the mix for daily baseball usage against him.

Stock Watch

Up - Wei-Yin Chen

Wei-Yin Chen might seem like an odd stock-up player if you simply glance at his ERA and compare it to his ERA estimators last year. They would seem to scream regression, but in four big league seasons, Chen has totaled a 3.72 ERA compared to a 4.14 FIP, 4.06 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA. The number that stands out as luckiest in his statistical profile from last year is his 80.5% LOB%. The league average in LOB% last year was 72.9%, according to FanGraphs. Beating the league average in LOB% is nothing new for Chen as he's done it all four years he's pitched in the majors, and his career mark is 76.7%. His career LOB% is right in line with his marks in 2013 and 2014, and that's probably a safe number to project him to regress to. Chen's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he posted a career-high 19.3% strikeout rate last year that was only a tick below the league average of 20.4%. His 5.2% walk rate was better than the league average of 7.7% last season, and his .290 BABIP allowed is identical to his career mark.

Moving to the National League provides him a boost this season, as does swapping Orioles Park at Camden Yards as his home ballpark for Marlins Park. Orioles Park at Camden Yards boosted homers to lefties 28%, homers to righties by 7%, runs to lefties by 17%, and runs to righties by 2%, according to the rolling three-year averages at StatCorner. The homer-suppressing nature of Marlins Park is sweet for Chen since he induced ground balls at just a 40.5% rate last year and owns a 38.5% ground-ball rate in his career. There's a lot to like about the 30-year-old southpaw.

Down - Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna had fewer than 50 plate appearances in the upper minors before reaching the majors in 2013. He kept his head above water in his first taste of the majors and even kicked things up a notch in year two hitting 23 homers with a .186 ISO, .338 wOBA and 115 wRC+. His undisciplined approach (6.7% walk rate and 26.8% strikeout in 2014) caught up to him last year. He walked less (6.1% walk rate), but he did cut back on his strikeouts (22.3% strikeout rate). Unfortunately, his reduction in strikeout rate was accompanied by a drop in pop (.124 ISO last season). He did receive further minor league seasoning with a demotion to Triple-A, and he proved too much for minor league pitching. He's still only 25-years old and has upside, but his stock is down from last year. On the positive side of the ledger, Ozuna pummeled lefties last season with a .384 wOBA and 145 wRC+ in 94 plate appearances against them, but his .153 ISO was lower than his 2013 mark of .182 and his 2014 mark of .191. Ozuna is a worthy outfield option against southpaws, but his numbers crumbled against righties and he's a non-factor against them initially this season.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.