Milwaukee Brewers - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 79.5

For a team with a sub-.500 projected record, the Brewers feature a ton of offensive talent who will appeal to daily baseball gamers. The rotation lacks star power, but there are useful starters in all five rotation spots -- at least there might be.

Park Factors

Miller Park is a home run hitter's idea of a cozy venue. Left-handed batters receive a 25% boost there when compared to neutral parks, and right-handed batters get a 24% bump. Unlike some homer-friendly parks, Miller Park also boosts scoring 4% to lefties and 7% to righties. This park will make an already formidable offense a great source of daily game treasures.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Jonathan Lucroy- 12/79

Martin Maldonado- 6/79

Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado are both excellent pitch framers. Their skills snagging extra strikes and failing to lose them when pitches are thrown in the strike zone will greatly aid a mostly young rotation.

Spring Training Storylines

Who hits leadoff?

Carlos Gomez's speed and well above average offensive skills belong at the top of the order to soak up all the extra at-bats he can get. However, his power might be appealing to drop a little lower in the order against right-handed pitchers with Scooter Gennett moving up to the top spot in the order. At worst, Gomez should hit first when a lefty is on the hill.

Will the team use Adam Lind to break up the righties in the heart of the order?

Aramis Ramirez is an above average hitter against right-handed pitching, so it's not as if he needs to be moved out of the cleanup spot when one's on the rubber, however, Adam Lind hammers them. It would make sense to move him up to the cleanup spot against a right-handed pitcher, but it's unclear if that will happen. Hitting cleanup would obviously enhance his value. Monitor the situation.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Since the Brewers allowed Gomez to cut loose and be himself -- meaning they didn't instruct him to pound the ball into the ground to utilize his speed -- he's blossomed into one of the best offensive players in the game. His power and speed combination are rare, and his ability to hit left-handed and right-handed pitching hard makes him a pricey daily baseball option worth consideration whenever the club faces a bad pitcher at home. His sizable cost will be worth budgeting for especially when the club faces a southpaw.

Jonathan Lucroy is one of the best hitters at the catching position. There were only nine qualified catchers in 2014, so I decided to drop the plate appearance minimum to 400 in order to expand the player pool, and with the reduced plate appearance minimum Lucroy ranked fourth out of 23 catchers in wRC+ (133). His hitting skills and lineup spot make him a great daily investment, and he's a near must use when facing lefties at home.

Ryan Braun has National League MVP hardware and he was a beast at his best. Now on the wrong side of 30, he's not the terror to opposing pitchers he once was. It's possible rumors of his demise are exacerbated by him battling injuries in recent years, and quotes from Braun suggesting his thumb is feeling 100% for the first time in a couple years should be viewed as a positive. Get him in your daily lineups against southpaws, and if he truly is 100% healthy, he could emerge as a solid play against right-handed pitchers under the right circumstances as well.

As I noted above, the club could benefit from dropping Ramirez to fifth in the order against right-handed pitchers. The move would take a small bite out of his value, but he's not a great play against his same-handed counterparts anyway. Ramirez is, however, a great pick against left-handed pitchers with his exceptionally high .300 ISO versus them since 2012.

Lind is a non-option against southpaws. It's as simple as that. He's a strong play against right-handed pitchers whether he's hitting fifth or cleanup, though. First base is deep, so he's not an elite player at the position, but he's a solid pick behind the best offensive players there.

Khris Davis justified the team's decision to free up an everyday role for him last year by hitting 22 homers with a .214 ISO. He has big power, and his home park helps him with his most tantalizing fantasy asset. His strikeout rate (22.2%) cuts into his batting average potential, and he doesn't walk much. Davis is a better GPP pick than a cash game selection, and because he murders lefties, he's best deployed when facing one.

Gennett no longer will be serving in a platoon with Rickie Weeks since Weeks took his talents to Seattle. Of course, an everyday role doesn't mean Gennett should be used against lefties. He's been lost against them, but he's been very good against right-handed pitchers. If he hits leadoff against right-handed pitchers -- as I speculated he might above -- then his value surges. Even down order, he'll have value if priced right since second base isn't loaded with big bats.

Jean Segura's 2014 campaign wasn't what his supporters would have hoped for after he tallied a 104 wRC+ the year before. He still stole 20 bases, and his low strikeout rate would help support an improved average if he made better contact. There's potential for a rebound, but don't trot him out in your daily lineups until he shows signs of improvement.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Kyle Lohse won't get daily gamers psyched up to roster him heavily. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher, but his pinpoint control has helped him best his FIP marks by a wide margin each of the last four years. He's the type of cheap pitcher who plays nicely at FanDuel when the Brewers are favored, but is little more than a bargain SP2 in DraftKings games.

Matt Garza's ceiling exceeds that of Lohse. His strikeout rate last year was his lowest since 2010, and his swinging strike rate was actually below the league average. It's probably the result of increased fastball usage. If he's willing to throw the slider more this year, as he has in season's past, expect his strikeout rate to creep back over 20%.

Wily Peralta does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and his control improved a great deal last year. The key to him fully unlocking his talent will be picking up more strikeouts. His slider resulted in a 15.12% whiff rate and his changeup netted a 17.26% whiff rate last year, per Brooks Baseball. The goods are there for him to net more strike threes, and I'll be rostering him early in the season in hopes his strikeout rate goes up while his price isn't reflective of his new found skill.

Mike Fiers fourseam fastball averages just a smidge over 90 mph. What, you expected more when you saw his strikeout rate? Despite his lack of velocity, he managed an 11.25% whiff rate on the pitch, according to Brooks Baseball. It's possible the league will figure him out, but his 9.5% swinging strike rate last year indicates they haven't yet. The nearly 30-year-old pitcher has dominated in the minors and pitched well at the big league level. I'm confident in using him out of the gate, but his lack of top shelf stuff makes it imperative to keep closer tabs on him than the usual high strikeout pitcher.

Stock Watch

Up- Jimmy Nelson

The Brewers dealt Yovani Gallardo, and Jimmy Nelson moves into the rotation. The big right-handed pitcher pitched absurdly well in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League managing a 2.97 FIP with a 26.5% K. In 14 games pitched (12 starts) in the majors, he managed a 4.93 ERA. A high BABIP killed him, as did struggles with stranding base runners. When those things normalize, Nelson should be able to pitch to the tune of a high-3s ERA. He'll be under priced early, and makes for a nifty SP2 in DraftKings games and a fine option when favored in FanDuel contests.

Down- Jean Segura

Segura tallied a 104 wRC+ in 2013, but totaled only a 67 wRC+ last year. In 166 plate appearances in his rookie season back in 2012, he totaled a 68 wRC+. See what I'm getting at? Segura's true offensive talent level likely falls between his 2013 and 2014 numbers, but as a down order hitter he'll be little more than a punt play. His stock is unquestionably down from where it was at this time last year.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

There are five hitters in the Brewers lineup who have a wRC+ north of 125 since 2012. They are a great stack choice when facing a lefty at home or in another offense-enhancing park. Beyond that, they have some talented hitters who can do damage against righties, too. Even their worst hitter, Segura, might have some low-end value in daily games this year.

The rotation lacks a bonafide star -- or anything resembling one. If you squint hard enough, Garza could be an SP1 at DraftKings if he leans on his slider more often and has a favorable matchup. Peralta could also step into SP1 status if he figures out how to use his changeup and slider to punch out more batters. The other three starters look like solid SP2s at DraftKings and usable bargain picks in FanDuel games when the Brewers are betting favorites.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports