Milwaukee Brewers - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Brewers didn't finish last in the National League Central in 2015, so they had that going for them. They did win just 68 games, though, and they're clearly rebuilding. The rotation is young and largely unproven. The lineup features some punch, some yuck and some mediocrity sandwiched in there, too. Even their high-end talent isn't elite like it once was. It's going to be another sub-.500 year for them, but they'll produce some daily baseball options.

Park Factors

Even though there are some holes in Milwaukee's lineup, as a whole it gets a bump thanks to the hitter-friendly nature of Miller Park. It's one of the best venues in the majors for hitting homers boosting them 32% to lefties and 25% to righties. Unlike some of the homer-friendly parks around the league, run scoring also gets a lift with lefties getting a 12% bump and righties netting a 3% bump. Outside of the elite pitchers in the league, you'll mostly want to avoid using hurlers in Milwaukee. All bats, especially power bats, get a lift in value.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Jonathan Lucroy - 23/72

Martin Maldonado - 22/72

Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado both ranked as slightly above average pitch framers last year, and they both have upside for more. In 2014, Maldonado ranked sixth out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing value and Lucroy ranked 12th, per StatCorner. The young staff can use all the help they can get, and both Lucroy and Maldonado should provide some by coaxing umps into awarding strikes on the close calls. Equally important, their pitch framing skills won't turn would-be strikes into balls due to sloppy receiving. Because both are so close to one another in rankings, the pitchers won't gain much having one of them behind the plate as opposed to the other.

Spring Training Storyline

Can Domingo Santana handle center field?

According to Minor League Central, Domingo Santana played 10 games in center field since 2011, and he played zero games there in 2015. He did, however, play 24 games in center field last year. His defense received a -3.8 UZR grade, but the Brewers appear content to live with his below average glove to get his big power in the lineup. Santana swatted eight homers in 187 plate appearances in the majors after ripping 18 in 411 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His thump comes with its share of empty swings, though, and he struck out in 26.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances before moving to the majors and seeing that mark rise to 33.7%. He's not truly an all-or-nothing hitter, however, as he walked in 13.13% of his Triple-A plate appearances and 10.7% of his big league plate appearances last year. The right-handed slugger has had a nearly non-existent minor league platoon split since 2011, but he was much better against lefties than righties last year, per Baseball-Reference (.888 OPS versus righties and 1.018 versus lefties). His propensity for striking out hurts his cash games appeal, but his thunderous stick and homer-friendly digs plays well in GPPs.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Scooter Gennett's stats against lefties in the table aren't a typo. The Brewers would be foolish to use him against lefties, and someone will almost certainly platoon with him. When facing a righty, though, he should hit atop the Brewers' order. He came on like gangbusters in his rookie season in 2013, but since posting a 161 wRC+ that year, that mark has dropped to 117 in 2014 and 87 last year. His walk rate against righties has dropped each year, and his strikeout rate jumped to 16.3% (which isn't terrible by any stretch). He's probably not as bad as he was against righties last year, but he's without question not as good as he was against them in his rookie year. He's a low-ceiling player who benefits greatly from his home park and lineup spot who daily gamers can use on the cheap against righties. Don't expect him to carry your rosters, though.

Jonathan Lucroy followed up back-to-back healthy seasons by playing in just 103 games in 2015. He failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time since 2010, and his ISO (.127), wOBA (.313) and wRC+ (93) were his lowest since 2011. A healthier Lucroy should bounce back closer to his 2013 and 2014 numbers, but he's reportedly on the trade block, and a move away from Miller Park would be a downer. Lucroy's batted ball data last year is incredibly promising, so chalk up last year to a flukey/unlucky bad year. The 29-year-old catcher was actually better against righties than lefties last season (70 wRC+ against southpaw and 101 WRC+ against righties), but his three-year numbers suggest he should be fine against lefties. Lucroy is one of the best offensive catchers in the game, but as I noted, a trade would hurt his value.

In his second full season with the Brewers, Khris Davis improved from a classic, low-OBP slugger to a power hitter who is patient enough to work walks at a high rate (10.0%). He's now a three-true-outcomes machine with 43.86% of his plate appearances ending via walk, strikeout (27.7%) or homer in 2015. Davis has a nearly non-existent platoon split, and rather than paying attention to the handedness of pitcher he's facing, gamers would be wise to check out the probable pitcher's strikeout rate. Davis is a poor play against big punch-out pitchers, but pitch-to-contact hurlers are playing with fire when pitching to Davis.

The Brewers sure do seem to love themselves TTO hitters as they added Chris Carter to the mix after the Astros non-tendered him. An eye-popping 50.43% of his plate appearances in 2015 ended via walk, strikeout or homer. The bad news is that he struck out in 32.8% of his plate appearances, so clearly one true outcome dominated that percentage. In his three seasons as a full-time player for the Astros, Carter belted 90 homers, and the 24 he hit in 460 plate appearances last year were his low. He has top-shelf pop. Carter is better against lefties than righties, but his power plays against either handedness of pitcher. Not even his strong walk rate has been able to elevate his OBP above .310 the last two years, and the lack of consistency getting on base limits him to GPP territory. There aren't many players who can boast as much thump as Carter has, and he landed in a perfect place to exhibit it.

Jean Segura posted a 105 wRC+ in his first full season in the majors in 2013. Erase that version of Segura from your memory. In 2014, he managed a 66 wRC+ and that dropped to 62 last year. His ISO hasn't bested .100 since 2013, and he's hit just 11 homers in over 1,100 plate appearances in the last two years combined. His OBP has been south of .290. He belongs hitting near the bottom of an order, and that's where he's projected. He's not a total non-factor, however, as he stole 25 bases last year and has 45 steals in the last two years combined.

Jonathan Villar appears to be the stopgap at third base. While he'd be best used in a utility role, there's a little bit here to like. In 198 games and 658 plate appearances in the majors, Villar has stolen 42 bases in 56 attempts while reaching the seats 10 times. He stole 35 bases in 70 games and 313 plate appearances at the Triple-A level last year, too. Villar is a well below average offensive player, though, and little more than a punt who can pay his low salary off with a stolen base on occasion.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Wily Peralta was a punching bag in 20 starts last year. There's no friendly way to put it, and his ugly 4.72 ERA was supported by his ERA estimators. His ground-ball rate of 51.6% remained great, but his strikeout rate cratered to under 13%. Peralta couldn't get hitters of either handedness out last year. Righties sported a .349 ISO, but lefties were even less kind to him totaling a .534 slugging and .376 wOBA. With a career .303 wOBA allowed to righties, last year could prove to be an aberration. The struggles against lefties were nothing new, though, as he's allowed a .351 wOBA to them in his career. Stack lefties against Peralta and don't be shy about sticking a righty in there, too, if it makes for a full stack.

Jimmy Nelson makes it two members of the Brewers' rotation who can coax grounders on more than half of the balls put in play against them (50.6% ground-ball rate last year). Unlike Peralta, Nelson did a nearly league average job of striking batters out, too. In fact, most of Nelson's number line up with the league average. The big righty dominated the upper minors and has some untapped upside, but he won't tap into that upside until he can fix his bugaboo, getting lefties out. Lefties rocked him to the tune of a .376 wOBA and they slugged .495 against him. Nelson exhibited a platoon split in the minors, but he wasn't exactly murdered by lefties (.692 OPS since 2011, per Minor League Central). Last year, his secondary pitches revolved around his curve (21.11%) and slider (17.30%), according to Brooks Baseball, and his changeup was rarely thrown (1.26%). That type of pitch mix shouldn't provide optimism about him making big strides against lefties, but his curve had just a .196 batting against from left-handed batters. It also netted a 72.22% ground-ball rate, so he might not need his changeup to improve in order to avoid getting murdered by lefties again this year. Out of the chute I'd stack lefties against Nelson and use the big righty against righty-laden lineups, but he's a pitcher worth keeping tabs on all year as he harbors some upside.

Matt Garza turned in arguably the worst season of his major league career. There aren't many positives to be drawn from the numbers. For the second year in a row, he struggled to strand baserunners (65.6% LOB% last year after 66.6% LOB% in 2014). His .319 BABIP allowed in 2015 is 30 points higher than his career mark of .289, but don't just dismiss that as bad luck. Garza allowed a 33.0% hard hit ball rate, the second highest mark of his career. He's just a year removed from being a slightly above average starting pitcher, but there isn't nearly enough upside possessed by Garza to use him before he proves last year was only a blip on the radar.

Zach Davies is a prototypical ground-ball pitcher. He threw his sinker at a 63.39% clip in six starts and induced worm burners 57.6% of the time. His control was lackluster(10.8% walk rate), however, and not even a 10.0% swinging strike rate resulted in even an average strikeout rate. His changeup has a future 60 grade on the 20-to-80 scouting scale at FanGraphs, and it had a drool inducing 27.94% whiff rate, according to Brooks Baseball, so there might be something here. File his name away to keep an eye on, but don't rush out to use him early in the year since that above average changeup wasn't enough to push his strikeout rate above 20% at the Triple-A level last year.

Stock Watch

Up - Taylor Jungmann

The Brewers popped Taylor Jungmann with the 12th pick in the first round of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft as player who was polished and should move quickly, but not one with a ton of upside. He pitched at a mediocre level in High-A in his professional debut in 2012, and his numbers were ugly at the Double-A level in 2013. Repeating the Double-A level to start the 2014 season was just what the doctor ordered, but they he was more good than great in 19 appearances (18) starts at the Triple-A level (4.32 FIP, 23.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate). Repeating Triple-A was nothing like repeating Double-A for Jungmann as he was rocked to the tune of a 6.37 ERA (3.89 FIP) as his strikeout rate dipped a bit and his walk rate rose a bit. Surprisingly, he actually improved upon promotion to the Brewers. As a member of the Beer Makers he made 21 starts and posted a walk rate (9.4%) lower than he did in either Triple-A stint, and his strikeout rate was above average. His swinging strike rate (8.4%) doesn't seem to support his above average strikeout rate, and his best swing-and-miss pitch is his curve, but its 17.36% whiff rate, per Brooks Baseball, provides further reason for pessimism regarding him maintaining his strikeout rate. All of that said, his stock is up after mediocre seasons in the minors. His upside isn't great, but he looks the part of an average big league pitcher.

Down - Ryan Braun

Ryan Braun's stock hasn't dropped to the point he's a non-option in daily baseball, but it's definitely down. The 32-year-old outfielder's .207 ISO, .352 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against righties last year are his best marks since 2012, but they're more good than great. He is, however, one of the elite lefty killers in the game having posted a .233 ISO, .408 wOBA and 158 wRC+ against them last season. Braun's one of the most desirable players in the majors to use when facing a lefty, but gamers will have to be pickier about when they use him against righties these days.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.