MLB Cash Game Picks: 4-14-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

The stats for Matt Harvey above are from 2013 since he missed the entire 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Harvey blew away the Nationals in his season debut striking out nine, walking one, allowing four hits and zero earned runs in a win. Equally important -- or perhaps more importantly -- his Brooks Baseball PITCHf/x data paints the picture of a guy who's back. His average velocity on his four-seam fastball was 96.06 mph and he totaled 15 whiffs on 91 pitches. The studly starter is far and away the biggest betting favorite tonight against a bad Phillies squad. Harvey features a high floor and exceptionally high ceiling, and he's actually a touch under priced for an ace who costs less than five-figures on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Another ace who isn't yet priced like one is Carlos Carrasco. He toyed with the Astros in his first start striking out 10 with three hits, one walk and zero runs allowed in 6.1 innings. Carrasco spent time split between starting and relieving last year, and he only started 14 games. With that in mind, I dropped the minimum innings pitched threshold to 90 in order to compare his work to the best in the game, and he compared favorably. Carrasco ranked second in FIP, fifth in strikeout rate and sixth in K-BB% (22.5%). He's a smaller betting favorite than I typically like to select as a cash games pick at pitcher, but he's such a stud and the low betting total of seven gets him a pass for not being a monster betting favorite.

Jake Arrieta didn't spend any time in the bullpen like Carrasco last year, but he, too, didn't have enough innings pitched to qualify for the ERA title in 2014. Using the same 90 innings threshold (Arrieta totaled 156.2) for sorting, Arrieta ranked third in FIP, tied for eighth in strikeout rate and 11th in K-BB% (20.5%). He pitched like an ace and joins Harvey and Carrasco as pitchers who do what aces do but fall short of the five-figure price range. He tied up the Cardinals in his first start spinning seven innings of scoreless ball with three hits, three walks and seven strikeouts. Arrieta is a slightly bigger betting favorite than Carrasco and also is pitching with a betting total of seven runs. You can't go wrong with any of these three starters at either site, all blend a high floor with a high ceiling.

One of these pitchers is not like the others, and he's Tim Hudson. The veteran hurler doesn't miss many bats, but he keeps the ball on the ground and typically fills up the strike zone. He had some issues with walking batters in his first start, but he was able to work around them and twirled 6.1 scoreless innings. Hudson is a good pitcher who is very cheap and is my "Vegas" pick, so to speak. He's pitching at AT&T Park, which is a pitcher-friendly venue, and the result is a low betting total of seven. Hudson has a nice betting line for a player of his cost. Hudson is a sweet SP2 pick in DraftKings games and a secondary cash games pick at FanDuel if you're looking to spend more heavily on hitting. I'd prefer the trio of studs listed above at FanDuel, but a few shares of Hudson is acceptable.

Catcher

Usually you want to reserve Buster Posey for usage against lefties since he's much better against them than righties, but tonight is a rare exception at DraftKings. He's too pricey to use at FanDuel in cash games, but he's only the fourth most expensive backstop at DraftKings. As his numbers above indicate, he's damn good against righties. I feel like that needs to be stressed since I mention he's much better against southpaws. It's a matchup with Christian Bergman that I love. Bergman has faced 144 right-handed batters and ceded a .419 wOBA. He's a bad pitcher, and Posey's a really good hitter. That's the type of matchup we aim for in cash games.

Miguel Montero received last night off with Jon Lester throwing to his personal catcher, David Ross, but he should be back in the lineup tonight. He's easily the top cash games pick on FanDuel when factoring in price point, and he's the only catcher who I'll use not named Posey on DraftKings. His lineup slot isn't ideal, but as a left-handed batter, a matchup with a righty is. Anthony DeSclafani has only pitched 39 innings in the majors, so it's important to look at his minor league numbers to get a more useful sample size. According to Minor League Central, he's allowed a .710 OPS to left-handed batters since 2011 compared to a .659 OPS to righties. Montero looks good to me.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo is another left-handed batter who makes for a great cash games play against DeSclafani. He's easier to budget for on FanDuel than DraftKings, and that will be my preferred site for using the Cubs slugger. Dexter Fowler failed to get on base in front of him last night, but I'd expect Fowler and unconventional National League number-nine hitter Tommy La Stella to award Rizzo some RBI chances from the two-hole tonight. Furthermore, Rizzo's .215 ISO against righties and ability to reach the seats makes every at-bat an RBI opportunity, whether a runner is on base or not.

There is more strikeout potential with Lucas Duda than I tend to like rolling with in a cash games pick, but there are too many factors working in his favor for me to pass on him. It starts with a bargain price. As a left-handed power hitter, Citizens Bank Park will award him a park factor of 120 for homers, according to StatCorner. He hits third for the Mets, so he'll have plenty of run production upside, and perhaps the best part is facing David Buchanan. Buchanan is arguably the worst pitcher starting tonight. Don't be fooled by Buchanan's small sample size success against lefties in the majors, he's allowed a .725 OPS to lefties in the minors since 2011.

Second Base

The switch-hitting Neil Walker is my top pick at second base in cash games at both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he's a cost saving alternative to my forthcoming top pick at third base at DraftKings. The cleanup hitter has a big platoon split and is much better against right-handed pitchers. That lines up great with Shane Greene's platoon split. Greene is much better against right-handed batters (.287 wOBA) than lefties (.345 wOBA). He has a small MLB track record, but his .777 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters in the minors since 2011 support his big league numbers. Take full advantage of his struggles against lefties by using Walker. As a bonus, I'll point out that Pedro Alvarez makes for a nifty GPP dice roll as a result of his huge power and left-handedness.

Another switch-hitter picked as my cash games second baseman, and another one hitting in a favorable lineup spot! Ben Zobrist doesn't have the sizable platoon split Walker has which is part of the reason he's my second favorite second baseman tonight. That said, he's an above average hitters against lefties and righties, making him less susceptible against a relief pitcher. There are two games tied for the highest betting total at nine runs, and the A's are in one of them. Brad Peacock gets an emergency start for the Astros and should be a punching bag for Zobrist and the A's. Batting left-handed tonight, Zobrist will get the benefit of Peacock's sky high .357 wOBA allowed to the 592 lefties he's faced in his career.

Shortstop

It's not as if the season is long at this point, but Jimmy Rollins should be fresh after a night off on Monday. He'll be re-inserted in his perch atop the lineup for the Dodgers. Rollins is an exceptional value at DraftKings and a more fairly priced play at FanDuel. Hisashi Iwakuma is a tough draw. The split finger specialist has allowed just a .290 wOBA to left-handed batters in his big league career, but the switch-hitting Rollins is in his preferred batter's box as a left-handed batter tonight. Also, his lineup spot helps him greatly in getting the nod over the other shortstops who are either too expensive to earn a tout given their variables today (namely Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes) or are equally talented to Rollins but have even less desirable circumstances.

Pass on Erick Aybar in DraftKings games in favor of Rollins, but Aybar is my top cash games pick at shortstop in FanDuel contests. His lineup spot isn't as desirable as Rollins', but all the other check marks in the pros and cons table go in favor of Aybar. The Angels in the other game with a betting total of nine tonight. As a left-handed batter, he'll hit with a park factor for runs of 110 in Texas. Finally, he gets a huge boost from Nick Martinez's struggles with left-handed batters. Martinez served the role of pinata last year and left-handed batters were children feverishly seeking a candy need beating him senseless. Martinez allowed a .358 wOBA to the 362 left-handed batters he faced compared to a .322 wOBA allowed to righties -- not exactly good either. Because Martinez is so bad against all batters, Aybar should have some run production chances even down order.

Third Base

Evan Longoria is a one-man show at third base. Rarely will there be a player who is so far and away the best play at their position that I'll bypass offering a secondary pick -- Walker at DraftKings not withstanding. Longo crushes left-handed pitchers. As I've noted the last few days, Devon Travis ranks atop the qualified hitters due to the year being so young, but I'm going to ignore him when referencing since 2012 statistics. Having gotten that aside out of the way, Longoria ranks tied for 12th among all qualified hitters in wRC+ and ISO against lefties since 2012. Rookie Daniel Norris never saw anything like Longoria in the minors. Norris won't get any favors from his home digs either, but Longoria will. As a right-handed batter, Longo will hit with park factors of 118 for doubles/triples, 122 homers and 103 for runs. In addition to using the Rays third baseman on all of my cash games rosters, he'll be a GPP lineup staple for me.

Outfield

On a day where Trevor Cahill takes the hill, I'm surprised Christian Yelich is the first opposing hitter to get the nod. That said, Yelich is a great get. The left-handed hitter has a good lineup spot and hits right-handed pitchers much better than lefties. The sinker throwing Cahill struggles mightily with left-handed batters. Cahill has faced 1,035 left-handed batters since 2012, and they've pummeled him to the tune of a .340 wOBA. Yelich couldn't ask for a better matchup.

One of my favorite options at any position tonight is Steve Pearce. He's first base and outfield eligible at DraftKings, and a good play at either position. Pearce's price at both FanDuel and DraftKings is part of the reason for my infatuation with him tonight, but far from the only reason. Pearce is a late bloomer who has only totaled 291 plate appearances against lefties since 2012. In other words, he's not a qualified hitter. Dropping the minimum number of plate appearances to 250, Pearce ranks tied for 15th among all hitters in ISO. His power could be on full display against the formerly dominant CC Sabathia. According to Brooks Baseball, Sabathia's fourseam fastball velocity is averaging under 90 mph this year. His margin for error with a no longer power fastball is thin. He's not the pitcher he once was, and with that in mind, I've decided to look at his since 2013 numbers. In that time frame, he's faced 897 right-handed batters and allowed a .357 wOBA. Get Pearce in tons of lineups.

Nelson Cruz is going to be highly rostered after a double-dinger night on Monday. I'll keep this short and sweet. He hammers lefties, and David Huff isn't a good one. Since 2012, he's allowing a staggering 23.2% line drive rate to right-handed batters. Cruz should hit him hard, and Dodger Stadium provides him a right-handed batter park factor of 114 for homers.

Curtis Granderson's first 27 plate appearances this year feature some good and bad. The bad is a lone single serving as his only hit, but he's walked nine times and struck out only three times. All are small samples, but his plate discipline is promising. The leadoff hitter will get a boost from the aforementioned struggles of Buchanan against left-handed batters. As a lefty power hitter, he'll also join Duda in enjoying the park factor of 120 for homers at Citizens Bank Park. Granderson is very affordable at DraftKings and Fanduel.