MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball
Pitcher
Hisashi Iwakuma | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total & ML |
$8,300 | $8,800 | Astros | 3.25 | 21.7 | 50.2 | 7 and -158 |
Jake Arrieta | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total & ML |
$9,200 | $9,500 | @Pirates | 2.26 | 27.2 | 49.2 | 7 and +113 |
Matt Shoemaker | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total & ML |
$8,500 | $8,100 | Athletics | 3.26 | 22.8 | 41.2 | 7.5 and -139 |
Catcher
Miguel Montero | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,300 | $3,300 | A.J. Burnett RHP | 0.336 | 0.138 | 108 | 4,6,7? | 7 |
Derek Norris | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,800 | $3,800 | Jorge de la Rosa LHP | 0.380 | 0.192 | 147 | 2,4,5? | 9.5 |
Manager John Madden has moved Miguel Montero around the lineup a bit, so it's possible he'll hit in an unfriendly spot in the order. If he hits down order, his value takes a hit. The left-handed hitting catcher is far better against righties than lefties, and A.J. Burnett struggles with lefties. Since 2012, Burnett has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed batters.
Derek Norris is a beast against left-handed pitchers. He hit cleanup with a lefty on the hill yesterday, but the Padres were also without Justin Upton. A healthy return from Upton would result in Norris hitting elsewhere in the order, but a top-five lineup slot is a safe bet. After dispatching of a pair of qualified hitters from this year with just a dozen plate appearances (which I'll be doing for all references to qualified hitters in this piece), Norris ranks tied for 17th in wRC+ against lefties among qualified hitters since 2012. That's all hitters, not just catchers. His price point is great and allows for a ton of spending elsewhere.
First Base
Miguel Cabrera | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$5,000 | $5,400 | CC Sabathia LHP | 0.422 | 0.245 | 170 | 3 | 8.5 |
Justin Morneau | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,000 | $3,800 | Odrisamer Despaigne RHP | 0.374 | 0.203 | 133 | 4 | 9.5 |
Miguel Cabrera would make for a strong selection every day of the year, but today's matchup with CC Sabathia makes him worth budgeting for at first base on either site and a great play at the hot corner on DraftKings. Miggy ranks tied for fifth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA and 11th in ISO against lefties since 2012. Comerica Park is a great ballpark for Cabrera to rake in as well with right-handed batter park factors of 113 for doubles/triples, 103 for homers and 110 for runs, according to StatCorner. He's one of the safest bets as a hitter to rack up fantasy points today.
Justin Morneau is in year two with the Rockies, and he's in a great lineup spot hitting cleanup. He's long raked against right-handed pitchers, but he kicked that up to a whole new level when facing a righty at Coors Field last season. He totaled 209 plate appearances against righties at home last season and racked up a 152 wRC+, .219 ISO with a miniscule 6.7% walk rate. You'll notice when checking out the Positional Analysis article today that Joey Votto is listed as the second choice at first base, but this isn't an oversight listing Morneau as the second option in cash games. Votto is priced too close to Cabrera to advocate using him over the Tigers' star, and Morneau's gap in pricing makes him the second best cash games option at first base.
Second Base
Robinson Cano | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,800 | $4,900 | Asher Wojciechowski RHP | 0.418 | 0.243 | 169 | 3 | 7 |
Ian Kinsler | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,900 | $4,400 | CC Sabathia LHP | 0.365 | 0.159 | 129 | 2 | 8.5 |
Robinson Cano is the best offensive player at the keystone position. He's considerably better against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Since 2012, he ranks tied for second among all qualified hitters in wRC+, third in wOBA and 10th in ISO. Those ranks would be impressive for a first baseman or corner outfielder, and they're essentially unheard of at second base. The sweet-swinging lefty is facing one of the worst starters, Asher Wojciechowski, tonight and hitting in the heart of his team's order. The low total isn't ideal, but he's on the favored side of things.
Ian Kinsler rakes versus southpaws. Almost the entire Tigers lineup does, for that matter. With that being the case, grabbing their two-hole hitter should result in plenty of fantasy points. Sabathia's skills erosion is well documented, and while his underlying stats indicate he's been unlucky, his diminished stuff suggests he simply doesn't have the goods to get hitters out at a high rate anymore. The lefty has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012, but that balloons to a .357 wOBA when eliminating his 2012 season. Kinsler should be licking his chops standing in against Sabathia, and daily gamers will enjoy watching him pile up points tonight.
Third Base
Kyle Seager | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,500 | $4,700 | Asher Wojciechowski RHP | 0.357 | 0.187 | 132 | 5 | 7 |
Will Middlebrooks | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,000 | $3,900 | Jorge de la Rosa LHP | 0.327 | 0.185 | 103 | 5 | 9.5 |
Kyle Seager is off to a decent start and his 10.0% strikeout rate is promising for his uptick in batting average this year sticking. He's long raked against righties, and he gets to take cuts against one of the worst pitchers toeing the slab tonight. The number-five hitter should have RBI chances hitting directly behind white hot Nelson Cruz and two spots back from my top play at second base. Seager's performance at home against right-handed pitching has improved every year in the majors, and last year he totaled a 188 wRC+, .435 wOBA and .315 ISO at Safeco Field against righties.
This is a bit of a shocking cash games pick, but Will Middlebrooks is cheap exposure to the monstrous 9.5 over/under run total. His lineup slot is more good than great, but with a high total, he isn't in much danger of missing out on at-bats the first four batters will be awarded. As a right-handed batter, he'll be hitting with park factors of 114 for singles, 111 for doubles/triples, 119 for homers and 134 for runs. He's only a slightly above average hitter when facing southpaws, but the other variables push his value up a notch or two tonight.
Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$5,300 | $5,900 | Odrisamer Despaigne RHP | 0.399 | 0.220 | 140 | 3 | 9.5 |
Billy Hamilton | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,900 | $4,800 | Wily Peralta RHP | 0.292 | 0.106 | 83 | 1 | 7.5 |
One would much prefer Troy Tulowitzki facing a southpaw, but a home tilt against a righty isn't a bad consolation. Just how good has he been at home against right-handed pitchers in recent years? He's been fantastic. Tulo has totaled a wRC+ north of 150 every year since 2012 with the exception of his seven plate appearances this year. He's very expensive, but he's far and away the best offensive player at shortstop.
Billy Hamilton sat yesterday, but he said he was okay and ready to play after suffering a groin strain Saturday. Check to be sure he's in the lineup, but all signs point toward that being the case. Hamilton is only outfield eligible on FanDuel, but he's a cheaper alternative to Tulo at shortstop on DraftKings. His speed is his calling card, and if he gets on base, expect him to attempt to steal. He leads the league this year in stolen bases with eight and swiped 56 last year. His chances of getting on base are higher than usual facing Wily Peralta tonight. Peralta has allowed a .344 wOBA and .343 on-base percentage to left-handed batters in his big league career.
Outfield
Corey Dickerson | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,900 | $4,700 | Odrisamer Despaigne RHP | 0.397 | 0.259 | 139 | 6 | 9.5 |
Matt Kemp | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,300 | $5,400 | Jorge de la Rosa LHP | 0.391 | 0.230 | 153 | 3 | 9.5 |
Shocking, another pick from the Rockies and Padres game at Coors Field. If you aren't aggressively attacking the 9.5 run total, you're going to lose the bulk of your daily games tonight. Corey Dickerson makes for one of the best picks in that game. Dickerson reached the majors in 2013, and he's been a terror for right-handed pitchers at Coors Field ever since. He has 291 plate appearances at home against righties and managed eye-popping numbers of a .350 ISO, .484 wOBA and a 199 wRC+. Odrisamer Despaigne has a deep arsenal, but he can throw the kitchen sink at Dickerson and I like the outfielder's odds of getting the best of him.
If Upton is in the lineup, I'd prefer him ever so slightly to his teammate Matt Kemp. Because that's not a given, Kemp gets the green light as my second favorite outfield selection in cash games. He wraps up tons of exposure to the big betting total. The former Dodger does a great job of squaring up baseballs when facing southpaws. Since 2012, he owns a 24.5% line drive rate with just a 1.0% infield flyball rate against lefties. That type of loud contact has resulted in the strong numbers you see in his table above, and they make him a great option in daily games tonight.
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