MLB Cash Game Picks : 4-21-15

Picking a third pitcher was tough since there are a number of others --Chris Archer comes to mind -- who are also in the mix. This pick is Vegas driven. Jon Niese is the second biggest betting favorite in a game tied with three others for the lowest betting total of seven. That's a combination too good to ignore, as is opposing Trevor Cahill. Niese's low strikeout rate doesn't elicit much excitement, but he pounds the strike zone and bests the league average in walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a high rate. The result is a pitcher who can tally a quality start, score points through innings pitched and hopefully picking up a win. He's less valuable on DraftKings than FanDuel due to the low strikeout rate and the fact he's only average in terms of limiting baserunners, but his price puts him in cash games play on both sites.

Catcher

Buster Posey has some red flags tonight. The first is a low betting total and the second is playing at AT&T Park. His price point is great at DraftKings, though, and he's ownable at FanDuel as well thanks to facing a lefty. Posey annihilates southpaws. After eliminating two qualified hitters from this year, Posey ranks third in wRC+ and fourth in wOBA against southpaws since 2012. Brett Anderson keeps the ball on the ground at a very high rate, so a homer will be tough to come by for Posey, but Anderson doesn't strike many batters out and Posey will have a good shot at accumulating hits as a result.

Derek Norris delivered for gamers last night from the two-hole for the Padres. He should do so once again tonight. He's back at Coors Field where he'll hit with right-handed batter park factors of 115 for singles, 111 for doubles/triples, 119 for homers and 135 for runs, per StatCorner. The lefty he's facing, Tyler Matzek, has allowed a .362 wOBA to the 421 right-handed batters he's faced in the majors and a .766 OPS to right-handed minor leaguers since 2011, according to Minor League Central. With a betting total of 10, Vegas is expecting another big scoring outburst.

First Base

Shocking! Another hitter at Coors Field tonight. Justin Morneau moved to fifth in the order last night, but Nolan Arenado was out. Arenado hopes to play today, but Corey Dickerson -- who hit second last night -- is dealing with plantar fasciitis and could be out tonight. Morneau's lineup spot is uncertain, but I like his odds of hitting in the top five in the order against another righty tonight. As a left-handed batter, Morneau will hit with park factors of 107 for singles, 112 for doubles/triples, 123 homers and 137 for runs. He pummeled right-handed pitchers at home in his first year with the Rockies last season and totaled 209 plate appearances tallying a .219 ISO, .416 wOBA and 152 wRC+ with just a 6.7% strikeout rate. Morneau is an easy pick at a fair price tonight.

The Brewers are sluggish out of the gate, but Adam Lind is not. He should hit in the cleanup spot tonight, making for a great run production slot in a game with a betting total of eight runs. Lind's excellence hitting right-handed pitching meshes well with Jason Marquis' remarkable struggles against lefties. Marquis has ceded a staggering .386 wOBA to lefties since 2012. Finally, as a left-handed batter, Lind will hit with park factors of 129 for homers and 106 for runs.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis heads a left-handed batter barrage taking aim at roughing up right-handed pitcher Hector Noesi. The righty has been terrible in his career owning a 4.89 FIP. Since 2012, Noesi has allowed a .343 wOBA to 742 lefties. Kipnis will spearhead the attack as the leadoff hitter for the Tribe. Vegas has a decent betting total of eight runs and the Indians are the favorites, so a big motivating factor for using Kipnis is the likelihood of his teammates driving him in if he gets on base.

I love Brian Dozier against southpaws. After eliminating Devon Travis from the qualified hitter pool, Dozier ranks second among qualified second basemen in wRC+, third in wOBA and first in ISO against lefties since 2012. He's been hitting cleanup for the Twins, which is great for run production. Jason Vargas isn't especially bad against right-handed batters, but I can't pass up Dozier's bargain bin price point at FanDuel when constructing rosters.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre has actually been better against right-handed pitchers than lefties since 2012. He owns a .371 wOBA and 132 wRC+ against lefties in that time frame compared to his marks against righties in the table above. In his career, Beltre has been better against lefties than righties, but he's been well above average against his same-handed pitching foes. Chase Anderson, the pitcher he's facing tonight, owns a reverse platoon split allowing a .354 wOBA to righties and a .329 wOBA against lefties. Usually a reverse platoon split should be taken with a grain of salt, but Anderson's extends to the minors where he allowed a .731 OPS to right-handed batters compared to a .636 OPS to lefties since 2011, according to Minor League Central. The positives are rounded out by right-handed park factors at Chase Field of 116 for doubles/triples, 109 for homers and 106 for runs.

Alex Rodriguez has kicked the door in after missing all of last year due to suspension. He's ascended to third in the order for the Yankees. His strikeout rate is high at 31.4%, but he's launching baseballs with four homers and the 12th largest average home run and flyball distance, according to Baseball Heat Maps. The veteran righty is demonstrating excellent plate discipline working walks in 17.6% of his plate appearances. A matchup with Kyle Lobstein is too good to ignore. Lobstein is a mediocre lefty who doesn't miss many bats. With a diminished likelihood of a strikeout facing Lobstein, Rodriguez's stock is up tonight.

Shortstop

Shortstop stinks tonight. I could probably insert that sentence into most daily game write-ups on most nights. Tonight, though, the price points are also especially bad. Jimmy Rollins is priced fairly at FanDuel as the fifth most expensive shortstop and a steal on DraftKings where he's the 26th most expensive shortstop. That's not a typo. He's priced outside the top-25 shortstops on DraftKings. As the leadoff hitter for the Dodgers, he's already got one huge check mark in the pros column -- in addition to the glowing check mark for his price on DraftKings. Facing Lincecum isn't a huge plus, but it's not a deterrent either. Since 2012, Lincecum has allowed a .313 wOBA to lefties and a .331 OBP. Lincecum really struggles with controlling the running game allowing 22 steals last year in 33 games and three already this year in two games. Rollins is one of the most efficient base stealers in the history of the game, so if he reaches base tonight, expect him to test the Lincecum/Posey battery.

Asdrubal Cabrera has become the default cash games pick at shortstop when pricing and variables stink for the others. The switch-hitter isn't a huge point scorer, but his floor is elevated greatly by hitting third for the Rays. In addition to hitting third, I like a matchup with southpaw Wade Miley a great deal. Miley reached the majors in 2011 and has faced 2,174 right-handed batters since then giving up a .327 wOBA to them. Furthermore, Evan Longoria was a tough cut at third base and he'll be hitting behind Cabrera, enhancing his odds of run scoring.

Outfield