MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball
Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.
Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$12,000 | $12,500 | San Francisco Giants | Basic - 86, HR - 74 | 3.46 | 32.10% | 48.90% | 6 |
David Price | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$11,400 | $10,700 | New York Yankees | Basic - 104, HR - 100 | 2.48 | 23.80% | 42.10% | 7.5 |
Jimmy Nelson | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$7,400 | $7,000 | Cincinnati Reds | Basic - 106, HR - 122 | 2.02 | 28.60% | 69.20% | 7 |
Joe Kelly | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$7,100 | $6,400 | Tampa Bay Rays | Basic - 90, HR - 90 | 3.26 | 23.40% | 37.50% | 8 |
It's a day of aces. In addition to the two listed above, Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner, and Cole Hamels are also available. Technically, you should probably target them ahead of Jimmy Nelson and Joe Kelly. We've listed small sample 2015 numbers for today's pitchers. Note that the ground ball rates should be taken with many grains of salt.
With apologies to Clayton Kershaw, it will be hard for anybody to afford him – especially on FanDuel. On DraftKings, it's possible to combine Kershaw with a cheaper option like Kelly. As we know, Kershaw is absurdly good, and he'll pitch today at baseball's most pitcher-friendly park. There's a reason the over/under is set at six runs. If there's a downside, it's that he's opposed by Bumgarner which puts the win in question.
David Price is the new Cliff Lee. His combination of great stuff and elite command allows him to pitch deeply into games. Since the start of 2013, he's averaged seven and one-third innings per start. That's the DFS triple whammy – more innings, strikeouts, and wins. It's always good to target a victory, and Price should be in prime position with the Tigers facing Adam Warren.
Jimmy Nelson more closely resembles a GPP pick. However, with the addition of a seemingly plus curveball, he should be a relatively reliable option. In his pair of starts against the Pirates, his sinker, curve, and slider were all fantastic. Both breaking balls drew whiffs on half of all swings. In addition to the short track record, there are other problems with this recommendation. The game is at hitter-friendly Miller Park, and he's opposed by Cueto. Nelson's about $5,000 cheaper than Kershaw, so choosing him is about opportunity cost.
Speaking of opportunity cost, Joe Kelly is a cheap option who should earn an easy win. He's against the Rays at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. His velocity is up to 97 mph this year and his slider has looked sharp. The issue with Kelly is that he relies too heavily on his fastball and sinker. The straight heater is good, but the sinker is less impressive. He'll need to get more out of his offspeed stuff if he wants to reach his ceiling. Control tends to be a problem too.
Catcher
Salvador Perez | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,600 | $4,200 | Mike Pelfrey - RHP | .316 | .137 | 99 | 7 | 8 |
Stephen Vogt | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,600 | $3,600 | Jered Weaver - RHP | .329 | .165 | 113 | 6 | 7.5 |
It's a difficult day for catchers. Some sort of plague is sending most of the best ones to the disabled list. Those who remain, like Buster Posey, have terrible matchups. Salvador Perez is something of an exception. He's against Mike Pelfrey who wasn't even good in his heyday. He's still hanging around the league. Perez is sort of a right-handed, poor man's Pablo Sandoval. Pelfrey rarely whiffs anybody, so he's a good match for Perez. It's too bad he bats down in the order.
Stephen Vogt is another high contact option. After popping nine home runs in 287 plate appearances last season, he's showing possible breakout power. He's hit four bombs in 46 plate appearances thus far. He generally hits sixth or seventh for the A's, but he sometimes bats second too. He's against soft-tossing righty Jered Weaver. To date, Vogt has the fifth highest wRC+ in the league.
First Base
Anthony Rizzo | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,400 | $4,800 | Vance Worley - RHP | .371 | .214 | 134 | 3 | 7.5 |
Paul Goldschmidt | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$5,300 | $5,500 | Yovani Gallardo - RHP | .375 | .214 | 135 | 3 | 8.5 |
Vegas pegs the over/under for the Cubs-Pirates game at seven runs. I disagree. A matchup of Vance Worley and Jason Hammel should produce seven runs before bullpens are even involved. PNC Park is very pitcher friendly, but the Cubs possess a dynamic lineup. One of the core components is Anthony Rizzo. He'll have the platoon advantage against Worley. The downside is that the Pirates starting outfield consists of three center fielders. Those gap balls might not fall.
Paul Goldschmidt has picked up right where he left off last year. He's home tonight against Yovani Gallardo. Goldy is better against left-handed pitchers which is a minor bummer for today. However, he's still a career .282/.371/.498 hitter against same-handed opponents. Gallardo doesn't have big splits.
Second Base
Jose Altuve | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,000 | $4,200 | J.A. Happ - LHP | .388 | .144 | 148 | 1 | 7.5 |
Ian Kinsler | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,800 | $4,600 | Adam Warren - RHP | .312 | .144 | 93 | 2 | 7.5 |
Jose Altuve has the platoon advantage against J.A. Happ. Second base is a weak position, so it's a good idea to take advantage of his career .352/.389/.491 line against southpaws. The game is at Safeco Field.
A matchup against Adam Warren usually isn't drool worthy. The Tigers offense changes things. Ian Kinsler puts a lot of balls in play, and he's a good bet to record five plate appearances. He's already scored 12 runs this season. We can expect more of the same thanks to an excellent supporting cast. Beware his mediocre splits against righties - .263/.334/.429.
Shortstop
Hanley Ramirez | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
Not Eligible | $4,600 | Nate Karns - RHP | .355 | .186 | 128 | 4 | 8 |
Jed Lowrie | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,100 | $4,000 | J.A. Happ - LHP | .316 | .131 | 101 | 3 | 8 |
If you don't want to mess with the usual slop at shortstop, head over the DraftKings where you can pick Hanley Ramirez. The Red Sox cleanup hitter is set for a monster season so long as he remains healthy. He's popped five home runs to date, and a low .179 BABIP is the only blemish to his season line. He's up against a mediocre right-hander in Nate Karns. The game is at Tropicana.
The Astros lineup is in a state of flux. Jed Lowrie usually bats third. So long as he's in the heart of the order, he's a smart play versus Happ. If you're looking to diversify and avoid rostering multiple Astros, I would prioritize Altuve. Lowrie projects to something around .255/.320/.400 this year. This pick is more about situation than talent.
Third Base
Miguel Cabrera | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
Not Eligible | $5,600 | Adam Warren - RHP | .419 | 260 | 169 | 3 | 7.5 |
Kris Bryant | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,800 | $4,300 | Vance Worley - RHP | - | - | - | 4 | 7.5 |
There was some concern that Miguel Cabrera would start slow. He spent most of the offseason rehabbing from injury and barely made it back in time for Opening Day. It appears he doesn't need to train over the winter. He's hitting .400/.464/.620. Of course, that comes with a .450 BABIP. Once we regress everything, we're looking at typical Cabrera. The possible issue is with his home run power.
Kris Bryant is riskier than your standard cash game pick. Typically, you wouldn't want to roster somebody expected to strike out 30 percent of the time. However, his current price tag seems to undersell his talent. As with Rizzo, the biggest issue is the ballpark. PNC Park kills home runs, and the Pirates outfielders run down anything that hangs.
Outfield
Justin Upton | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,500 | $5,500 | Kyle Kendrick - RHP | .341 | .176 | 115 | 4 | 9.5 |
Matt Kemp | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,800 | $5,800 | Kyle Kendrick - RHP | .353 | .193 | 128 | 3 | 9.5 |
Giancarlo Stanton | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,900 | $4,700 | Cole Hamels - LHP | .433 | .318 | 178 | 3 | 7 |
Mookie Betts | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs. RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs. RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs. RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,500 | $4,200 | Nate Karns - RHP | .328 | .142 | 107 | 1 | 8 |
Nope, we didn't forget the Coors Field game. Justin Upton and Matt Kemp are the best (and most expensive) plays from that contest. They're up against fellow righty Kyle Kendrick. The Rockies brought in Kendrick because he's a sinkerballer. However, his fringy stuff probably plays down in the rarefied air. Elevation negatively affects pitch movement. As you well know, Upton and Kemp are excellent power sources at Coors. That they'll face a high contact pitcher like Kendrick only seals the deal.
Giancarlo Stanton is visiting Cole Hamels at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has allowed seven home runs in just three games. Perhaps he's tipping his pitches. It's possible he's having trouble with pitch movement or location. More likely, it's just a small sample fluke. In any case, Stanton is powerful and could turn one around on Hamels.
A .205 BABIP had hidden a solid start to the season from Mookie Betts. The high contact hitter should be a reliable source of everything you might want from a DFS pick. As the Red Sox leadoff man, he possesses an unusually high floor for his price tag. He also has a sufficiently high ceiling to save your roster if somebody – like Bryant – turns in a real stinker.
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