MLB Cash Game Picks : 4-28-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

It's a night with Clayton Kershaw starting, and that means it's a night where he's in the discussion for the best pick at pitcher in cash games. The lefty was the best pitcher in baseball last season ranking first in FIP, strikeout rate, K-BB% (27.8%) and a host of other categories, according to FanGraphs. His 4.07 ERA through four starts and 24.1 innings this year is misleading. Kershaw owns a 2.79 FIP and 1.95 xFIP. His 21.4% HR/FB is bound for regression, as is his .393 BABIP and he'll improve stranding runners. In other words, his ERA is a product of a perfect storm of unsustainable numbers. The southpaw has struck out 34.3% of the batters he's faced, more than he struck out last year, and his walk rate is just fine at 6.9%. There's nothing wrong with Kershaw, and if you can budget for him, he's a great starting point in cash games on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Johnny Cueto is my favorite option tonight. He's the second biggest betting favorite -- bigger than Kershaw -- costs significantly less than the Dodgers' ace and he isn't opposing Madison Bumgarner. Cueto's strikeout rate exploded last year, and he's kicked it up to another level this year. His strikeout rate of 29.1% is the eighth highest among qualified starters this year, and he's rarely walking batters (4.6%). The Brewers have been a wreck this year, and righties are manhandling them. They rank 26th in wRC+ (74) and are tied for the sixth highest strikeout rate (22.4%). The floor and ceiling are very high for Cueto and the dollars you can save using him instead of Kershaw will help flesh out a much more formidable offense.

Michael Wacha is the biggest betting favorite. The team betting total for the Phillies tonight is three runs, according to Pinnacle Sports, tied for the lowest on the night. Those are two huge check marks in favor of using Wacha. The young right-hander is facing a Phillies team that ranks tied for last in wRC+ (59) and he's pitching at home, which is essentially a neutral ballpark, according to StatCorner. Wacha has been good in three starts this year totaling 20.1 innings with a 14.8% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, 55.7% groundball rate and 3.77 FIP. His 1.33 ERA is partly attributed to an unsustainable strand rate, but his ability to keep the ball on the ground and throw strikes raises the floor very high. There aren't any red flags in his PITCHf/x data, so the strikeouts should come, too, and revert back closer to his career rate of 21.7%. Most of my DraftKings teams will feature a Cueto and Wacha pairing, and Wacha is so much cheaper than Kershaw and Cueto on FanDuel that I'll mix him into my cash games rosters as well.

Catcher

Stephen Vogt stands head and shoulders above the other catchers tonight. In fact, there isn't another cash games catching option within the same zip code. He's ascended to third in the A's order, and he's been awesome this year totaling an 11.8% walk rate, just a 14.7% strikeout rate, .293 ISO, .447 wOBA and 191 wRC+. The lefty is validating his 2014 breakout very quickly, and he's facing a struggling righty whose skills against left-handed batters are rapidly eroding. Jered Weaver has pitched 22.1 innings in four starts allowing a 4.87 FIP and missing almost no bats (12.4% strikeout rate). Getting back to his skills erosion against lefties, Weaver allowed a .321 wOBA to them last year and has served up a .447 wOBA to the 51 he's faced this season.

Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst pitchers on tonight's slate, and Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game. You do the math. Since 2012, Pelfrey has allowed an astronomical .384 wOBA to 418 right-handed batters. The righty-heavy lineup will provide the Tigers' number-three hitter ample run production upside. Pelfrey hasn't exactly held lefties in check either, allowing a .321 wOBA to them since 2012. This year, Pelfrey's 2.65 ERA masks a 5.43 FIP. The combination of Cabrera's sterling numbers above and the likelihood of the Tigers scoring in bunches against Pelfrey results in Cabrera making for the top play in cash games at first base tonight. Unfortunately, with pricey aces on the hill, it will be very difficult to budget for him, and you might prefer my bargain option below.

Matt Adams is a dreamy choice for gamers who are spending on Kershaw or Cueto. He is the always necessary cheap pick, but one who can really hit. He's priced outside the top-five first basemen on DraftKings and is tied for the 20th most expensive first baseman on FanDuel. He's priced behind recently designated for assignment Allan Dykstra. That's total silliness. Adams hits cleanup and gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher, Severino Gonzalez, who is making his first big league start. Severino has faced 648 minor league batters since 2011 and allowed a .742 OPS, according to Minor League Central. You'll want some left-handed batters facing the rookie, and Adams is the cheapest -- and arguably the best -- option.

Dee Gordon still isn't walking much, but he has made huge gains with contact this year. Gordon has shaved his strikeout rate from 16.5% last year to 12.1% this year. He's not going to retain his .447 BABIP, but as a speedy high contact hitter, he might be a true talent .300 hitter. When he gets on base things get really exciting from a daily fantasy perspective. He led the majors in steals last year with 64, and he's second this year with eight. Unfortunately, he's been caught stealing six times. His efficiency in previous years leads me to believe he'll right the ship, but it's worth noting for DraftKings gamers since getting caught stealing results in losing points. He should be a strong bet to get on base tonight against Rafael Montero. The young Mets' hurler has faced only 108 major league hitters and allowed a .412 wOBA. He hasn't been as bad against lefties in the minors, but Montero does predictably struggle more with lefties than righties.

My second favorite two-bagger comes from the same contest. Daniel Murphy's early season .174 batting average and 59 wRC+ will immediately turn some gamers off. Don't be alarmed, though, his walk rate is sitting at a career high 9.1% and he's making a ton of contact with a career low 6.5% strikeout rate. Murphy's offensive numbers will be on the rise. The left-handed batter slots in a favorable place in the Mets' order, and his platoon split favors facing right-handed pitching. The righty he's facing, David Phelps, has allowed a .321 wOBA to lefties since 2012, and that wOBA has been aided by splitting time as a starter and reliever.

I've already highlighted the shortcoming of Gonzalez against lefties, and Matt Carpenter will put him to the test immediately as the leadoff hitter for the Cardinals. Carpenter's batted ball profile against righties always gets my attention. Since 2012, he ranks fourth among qualified batters in line drive rate (26.3%) and rarely gives away an out with an infield flyball (1.4% infield flyball rate). I constantly harp on the volatility of line drive rate and the need to take in-season line drive rate with a grain of salt due to how long it takes to normalize, but this is multiple years of data illustrating Carpenter can really square the ball up. He's a legitimate line-drive hitter who can work walks at a high rate and is facing a rookie pitcher making his first start. In a game where failure is the norm for even the best hitters, there isn't a batter I'd feel more comfortable laying money on reaching base today than Carpenter.

For starters, go ahead and disregard Kris Bryant's numbers above. He has nine plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this year. Bryant terrorized southpaws in the minors after getting drafted in 2013 and entering pro ball. He totaled 189 plate appearances against lefties in the minors and slashed .371/.481/.868. That means he had a .497 ISO and 1.349 OPS. Think he can rake against lefties? Pirates starter Jeff Locke hasn't exactly been nails against righties. Since 2012, he's allowed a .314 wOBA to 1,148 right-handed batters and he's been tattooed with a 21.1% line drive rate allowed. The Cubs' cleanup hitter is slightly under priced for his skill set.

Starlin Castro's completely forgettable 2013 season drags his since 2012 numbers down. That year, Castro had an ugly 69 wRC+. For his career -- which started in 2010 -- he owns a 111 wRC+ and his lowest mark after excluding 2013 is 107 in 2012. Last year, Castro posted a .343 wOBA and 117 wRC+. He's mastered the art of making life difficult for southpaws. Castro has hit sixth for the Cubs in three straight games, but he hit fifth in three straight before that. If he hits fifth in the lineup, his value gets a hearty boost. Even as the number-six hitter, Castro is a great play.

Jordy Mercer is a favorite of DFS gamers when a lefty get the nod against the Pirates. His numbers against lefties in the table above illustrate why. Last year, manager Clint Hurdle would bump him up into the top five in the order with regularity when the club faced a southpaw. We haven't seen him do that yet, but Mercer has also been banged up. He becomes a steal of a value play if tonight is the first night Hurdle shoots him up the order. If not, there is plenty to like about Mercer, including his minimum salary on FanDuel, where he's a damn near must play. Mercer's excellence against lefties pairs nicely with Travis Wood's struggles with righties. Since 2012, Wood has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed batters. Also, his batted ball profile allowed that includes a 22.7% line drive rate and 44.1% flyball rate will help Mercer tap into his pop tonight.

Nelson Cruz will be difficult to roster on teams with Kershaw or Cueto, but he'll be a popular pick of mine on rosters I use Wacha. Cruz hammers left-handed pitchers, and Ross Detwiler is completely inept against right-handed batters. Since 2012, Detwiler has allowed a bloated .353 wOBA to righties. In addition to the glowing numbers above, Cruz has an impressive 12.6% walk rate and 16.6% strikeout rate against lefties since 2012. His ability to make contact at a high rate while being selective makes him a dangerous hitter with above average power against southpaws.

I don't love Andrew McCutchen's price on DraftKings, but he's only $3,900 on FanDuel. There is no such thing as a "must use" player in daily games, but this price is a steal for a player of McCutchen's talent level. McCutchen falls just short of being a qualified hitter against lefties since 2012, but among hitters who have 400 plate appearances against them, he ranks first in wRC+ and wOBA. He's a stud, and he gets a break from his pitcher-friendly digs to play at Wrigley Field, where right-handed batters hit with park factors of 99 for double/triples, 107 for homers and 99 for runs, all of which are better than those featured at PNC Park.