MLB Cash Game Picks: 5-13-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher

There are four valuable pitchers today, but two will square off in Philadelphia. Francisco Liriano versus Cole Hamels figures to be a low scoring game with an uncertain outcome. They're both justifiable picks, although I'm worried the decision could fall to the bullpen.

Matt Harvey is the top choice of the day, and he has the price tag to prove it. He's opposed by the Cubs at a time of year when Wrigley's park factors change by the day. Check the prevailing winds around game time. The Cubbies lead the majors with a 26.1% strikeout rate. That's almost two percent higher than the next worst team. They're becoming a popular target for DFS owners looking to reach the 10 strikeout threshold. As we well know, Harvey has the stuff and command to overwhelm any opponent. Chicago's offense does have explosive upside, so this pick is not without risk.

We list FIP in our charts, and it makes James Shields look pretty darn terrible. At issue is a 25 percent HR/FB ratio. If you're familiar with the stat, you probably know it tends to hover around 10 percent for most pitchers. We even have a stat called xFIP that normalizes homer rate. Shields has a career best 3.06 xFIP. As for the matchup, Shields is opposed by the Mariners and Taijuan Walker. The M's hurler has scuffled this season with an 8.13 ERA and 5.28 FIP. As a result, I believe Shields is likely to get the win. He may not dominate the competition, but he looks like a high floor, medium ceiling option.

Catcher

With a high average and decent power, Buster Posey is a reliable choice on any day. When he's up against a left-handed pitcher at a hitter-friendly stadium, he becomes a must play. He's a career .328/.388/.572 hitter against southpaws, and that includes half of his games at AT&T Park. Houston's Minute Maid Park is above average for run scoring and power. And it's not like he's about to face Randy Johnson. Brett Oberholtzer is on the wrong side of ordinary.

I'm not sure why you would pay more to roster Russell Martin against Miguel Gonzalez, but he's probably the next best catcher for cash games. As many expected, Martin is hitting for more power in the American League East than Pittsburgh. He spent his past two seasons playing half his games at PNC Park. The Rogers Centre is a much friendlier environment. He won't have the platoon advantage tonight. However, Gonzalez is a flyball pitcher with a home run problem. Martin could add to his seven home runs. His 23.5% strikeout rate is well above his career rates while his swinging strike rate remains above average. Expect fewer strikeouts going forward.

First Base

Miguel Cabrera is a very good hitter. This pick is as much about Ricky Nolasco as it is about Cabrera. Nolasco's fastballs aren't fooling anybody. The whiff rates are ridiculously tiny. He appears to have been unlucky with his offspeed stuff, but it's possible he's tipping the pitches in some way. After a slow-for-Cabrera start to the season, he is doing his thing. He has a .410 wOBA, six home runs, and an identical 15.3 percent strikeout and walk rate.

If you prefer to a hitter with the platoon advantage, take a gander at Adrian Gonzalez. After an early season power outburst, he's reverted to a more ordinary home run rate. However, he continues to pile up multi-hit and multi-RBI games. He's opposed by Jarred Cosart - a merely decent groundball pitcher. Dodger Stadium is decent for left-handed power with a 108 HR park factor last season.

Second Base

Brian Dozier draws a lefty. For many owners, that's enough to merit a pick. He's a below average hitter against same-handed pitchers, but he turns it on against southpaws. A career .283/.349/.502 line out of the leadoff spot is always desirable. That's doubly true when the opponent is a mediocre starter like Kyle Lobstein. In a small sample, he's allowed a respectable .259/.323/.366 slash to right-handed hitters. However, his 87 mph fastball and low strikeout rate should give Dozier plenty of opportunity to do some damage.

If you like high floor talents, Dee Gordon is a reasonable choice. His current .425/.453/.520 line is supported by a .482 BABIP. Once reality reasserts itself, his cost should come down (especially on DraftKings). The lefty hitter is aggressive at the plate which helps him to avoid strikeouts. Whereas most DFS picks amount to a hunt for power, a Gordon selection is all about balls in play. With his speed and spot atop the lineup, you're looking for five shots at a single, a stolen base, and a run.

Shortstop

The mighty Troy Tulowitzki has looked strangely ordinary this season, and it's not because he's on the disabled list. The issue is his plate discipline. He's swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone and he's also making less contact than ever before (said contact rate is still exactly league average). Strangely, he has two walks and 23 strikeouts on the season. The game will be played at sea level (Los Angeles). That's usually a reason to avoid Tulo.

While we've noted several negative traits, there are reasons to jump on the bandwagon. He'll face lefty Hector Santiago. Tulowitzki has strong career numbers against southpaws, and they've extended to this season.

If you're open to a big step down from Tulowitzki, you could consider Jean Segura. He's hitting atop the Brewers lineup against southpaws. Milwaukee will see Jose Quintana. Segura doesn't feature notable platoon splits, nor does Quintana. This selection is all about leveraging a good spot in the lineup against a merely decent pitcher. Shortstop doesn't offer us many alternatives unless you happen to like Jung-ho Kang against Hamels.

Third Base

Donaldson isn't particularly special against right-handed pitchers, but he's still an above average hitter. As we noted with Martin, O's starter Miguel Gonzalez is homer prone and the game is at Toronto's power-friendly stadium. Donaldson bats second in a potent lineup. In past seasons, Donaldson has only been worth the price of admission against lefties, but he's performed well this year. We'll see if that's a small sample aberration or a function of his new home.

Arenado is a career .301/.359/.530 hitter against southpaws. Santiago has a .236/.331/.410 line versus right-handed hitters. Combine the two, and the Rockies cleanup man has a solid matchup. As with Tulo, the move to sea level won't help his numbers. However, his combination of power and contact ability offers opportunity for profit. Just be sure to mentally adjust for the Coors Effect.

Outfield

Carlos Gomez is a classic lefty masher, although a few quirks in his career arc makes it hard to point to specifics. For example, he hit .258/.352/.476 with a .270 BABIP against southpaws in 2014. A .361 BABIP against right-handers led to an identically valuable batting line despite weaker peripherals. In any event, look for Gomez to hit cleanup as part of a heavily right-handed lineup against Quintana. He's always been an aggressive hitter, but he's taken it to an extreme this year. He's swung at 64.6 percent of all pitches – 46.6 percent is league average. That's all small sample noise, but it's worth noting his present lack of patience.

Mike Trout may not have the platoon advantage, but he will face a sinker baller. Jordan Lyles is a perfectly acceptable starter against most hitters. Trout feasts on low pitches, and he should expect to see some tonight. Over 80 percent of his contact is classified as medium or hard hit – one of the highest rates in the league.

Technically speaking, Nelson Cruz is reasonable high floor, high ceiling pick. He's locked in with a massive .393 ISO and .346 BABIP. Those numbers scream regression, but they also hint at a hitter who's outclassing the opposing pitching. As we discussed in the intro, Shields has pitched well but for a home run problem – yet another probable source of regression. I'm not inclined to actually pony up for Cruz. Still, it's hard to ignore his overall profile as a safe cash game choice.

Joc Pederson's price has increased substantially in the last week. His combination of power and spot atop a strong lineup are intriguing. He's a flyball hitter, although the split isn't extreme. He still matches up well with a ground ballhurler like Cosart. His high strikeout rate – 32.5% – makes him an iffy choice for cash games. Ideally, you'd like a hitter who ends more than 50 percent of his plate appearances with a ball in play. I say that tongue in cheek; we can probably count on a much lower walk rate going forward.