MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball
Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.
Pitcher
It's a deep day for pitching. Beyond the trio of elite names listed above, a case can be made for Carlos Carrasco, Zack Greinke, and Chris Archer as blue chip arms. If you're willing to accept a little risk, you can even go “bargain" hunting with Lance Lynn or Noah Syndergaard.
Max Scherzer (R), Nationals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$11,800 | $11,100 | Chicago Cubs | Basic - 104, HR - 102 | 2.03 | 28.50 | 36.70 | --- |
While alternative abound, the top names look mighty tasty. Max Scherzer draws a high variance Cubs offense. The Chicago offense features plenty of power and even more strikeouts. Scherzer is on one of the best nine game stints of his career with 10.02 K/9 against 1.25 BB/9. He's averaged nearly 7.1 innings per start. Not only does that help his DFS point total, he also has a better chance to earn the victory. Scherzer does have notable platoon splits. In other words, watch out for Anthony Rizzo. He's opposed by Jon Lester which hurts his shot at a win.
Gerrit Cole (R), Pirates | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$10,000 | $10,500 | Miami Marlins | Basic - 94, HR - 76 | 2.28 | 27.60 | 54.80 | 7 |
Gerrit Cole is my favorite play of the day. He's continued his multi-year growth by buffing his strikeout rate to 9.95 K/9 while maintaining strong walk and ground ball rates. Like many young aces, Cole doesn't pitch particularly deeply into the game. He's averaged 6.1 innings per start this season. Much of that can be attributed to careful handling by the Pirates. The game is at pitcher-friendly PNC Park. That should help to keep the non-Stanton Marlins off the board. Miami has yet to announce their starter – it could be a bullpen day. A win seems quite likely.
Felix Hernandez (R), Mariners | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | Park Factors | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total |
$11,500 | $12,000 | Tampa Bay Rays | Basic - 102, HR - 90 | 3.4 | 26.50% | 62.20% | 6.5 |
Felix Hernandez provides a third elite option. The Mariners' ace is in vintage form with healthy strikeout and walk rates. He has an unusually high 19.4 percent HR/FB ratio, but a lack of other red flags means it's probably a small sample fluke. King Felix will pitch at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball against a decidedly mid-tier lineup. As a team, the Rays have a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (read six percent below average). And Hernandez is no typical righty.
Catcher
Buster Posey (R), Giants | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,000 | $4,800 | TBA | 0.359 | 0.153 | 134 | 4 | 8.5 |
The Brewers have yet to announce their starter for tomorrow. It was scheduled to be Wily Peralta, but he's landed on the disabled list. Some form of bullpen game is likely. Whoever draws the start is probably a good matchup for Buster Posey. Miller Park is a huge upgrade to his usual stomping grounds in San Francisco. As a result, Posey is a decent pick for power. He's best against lefties, but I'm assuming he'll face a righty. Even so, he's still the top catcher of the day.
Stephen Vogt (L), Athletics | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,500 | $5,000 | Alfredo Simon - RHP | 0.339 | 0.174 | 119 | 5 | 7.5 |
An alternative in the all-day contest is Stephen Vogt. The A's backstop is doing his best Victor Martinez impression. He has excellent contact ability with a hard hit rate over 30 percent. He's liable to put four or five balls in play against Alfredo Simon which translates to one or two hits. Vogt is a guy who makes his own luck with quality contact. Simon may not be the most exploitable starter, but he rarely piles up strikeouts.
First Base
Joey Votto (L), Reds | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,200 | $4,700 | Kyle Kendrick - RHP | 0.413 | 0.193 | 164 | 2 | 8 |
Joey Votto should be a popular pick against Kyle Kendrick. As we know, a healthy Votto is among the best hitters in the league against righties. He's a triple threat with power, contact skills, and plate patience. Of course, the matchup is even more interesting thanks to Kendrick. The Rockies righty will have to survive homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. He's coughed up quite a few home runs this season and could continue the ugly trend. Lefties hit .280/.351/.472 against Kendrick.
Miguel Cabrera (R), Tigers | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$5,100 | $5,100 | Scott Kazmir - LHP | 0.425 | 0.248 | 173 | 3 | 7.5 |
We wouldn't usually pick on Scott Kazmir, but Miguel Cabrera is a special case. Over the last three plus years, Cabrera has the third best wOBA against left-handed pitchers with more walks than strikeouts. Kazmir has small platoon splits so don't get too excited about the matchup. He's only available in all-day leagues.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis (L), Indians | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,700 | $4,700 | Colby Lewis - RHP | 0.349 | 0.15 | 125 | 1 | 8.5 |
When he's right, Colby Lewis is an underwhelming command and control pitcher who gets the job done by using the entire zone. He looks as sharp as ever this season. As such, the matchup for Jason Kipnis isn't an automatic gimme. Kipnis struggled through injuries last season, but he's fully healthy and mashing this year. He's showing the elite combination of power and speed that made him a popular fantasy pick in 2014. As the Indians' leadoff man, he'll have an opportunity to provide value.
Kolten Wong (L), Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,100 | Josh Collmenter - RHP | 0.303 | 0.133 | 92 | 1 | 7.5 |
Hot hitting Kolten Wong has moved into the leadoff role for the Cardinals. Like Kipnis, he combines power, speed, and contact ability. The result is a high floor, high ceiling fantasy profile. He's opposed by fly-ball pitcher Josh Collmenter. Wong skews towards ground balls, and studies have shown that ground-ball hitters do well against fly ball pitchers. More to the point, Collmenter is quite unimpressive. Lefties have a .274/.322/.421 line against him.
Shortstop
Every lineup has to punt somewhere, right? If we rostered the best player/matchup at every position, we'd end up $5,000 over budget. Shortstop looks like an excellent position to punt today. Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta may be the “best" of the bunch. I'm sure not impressed.
Troy Tulowitzki (R), Rockies | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,900 | $4,400 | Mike Leake - RHP | 0.387 | 0.212 | 131 | 3 | 8 |
Troy Tulowitzki is battling minor injury and major plate discipline issues. His contact quality is down, his power is down, and his strikeout rate is way up. He still profiles as a well above average hitter, but don't treat him like vintage Tulo. A matchup against Mike Leake is neither exciting nor worrisome.
Jhonny Peralta (R), Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,100 | Josh Collmenter - RHP | 0.327 | 0.152 | 106 | 5 | 7.5 |
Jhonny Peralta hits at the heart of the Cardinals lineup. St. Louis is a reasonable bet to tee off on Collmenter. Peralta obviously isn't the most interesting option, but the alternatives at shortstop all come with a low floor.
Third Base
Matt Carpenter (L), Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2014 | ISO 2012-2014 | wRC+ 2012-2014 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,000 | $4,600 | Josh Collmenter - RHP | 0.374 | 0.149 | 140 | 2 | 7.5 |
I love Matt Carpenter in cash game formats. His high contact approach and plate discipline results in very steady production. Now that he's hitting second for the Cardinals, he even has a few RBI opportunities. There's nothing complicated about this pick. The only downside is that the game is at pitcher friendly Busch Stadium.
Todd Frazier (R), Reds | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,800 | $4,800 | Kyle Kendrick - RHP | 0.342 | 0.193 | 115 | 4 | 8 |
There's no doubting that Todd Frazier is a better hitter against southpaws. As such, conditions are not quite ideal tomorrow against Kendrick. That said, his platoon splits are relatively modest. Kendrick has been exploited by all manner of hitters this season. He isn't a strikeout pitcher which helps to mitigate Frazier's biggest weakness. The Rockies have a lousy bullpen for when Kendrick is knocked out of the game.
Outfield
Michael Brantley (L), Indians | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,500 | $4,900 | Colby Lewis - RHP | 0.357 | 0.154 | 131 | 3 | 8.5 |
Michael Brantley appears to be over the back injury that slowed him at the start of the season. The Indians' outfielder simply doesn't swing through pitches (2.4% SwStr%). At this point, you can consider Brantley a solid cash game pick on any day against a right-handed pitcher. Lewis is rather unintimidating. The game is at Progressive Stadium which rewards left-handed power.
Mike Trout (R), Angels | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$5,100 | $5,200 | Andrew Cashner - RHP | 0.416 | 0.258 | 173 | 2 | 7 |
There is an expectation that I explain my picks. I suppose you could say it's my raison d'être. Sometimes it feels rather silly. Why do I recommend Mike Trout against Andrew Cashner? Because Trout is a monster. Beyond the basics, Trout loves to tee up low fastballs. Cashner is a ground ball pitcher. There are better conditions under which to use Trout, but today's looking pretty good.
Billy Hamilton (S), Reds | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,000 | $4,500 | Kyle Kendrick - RHP | 0.278 | 0.096 | 73 | 1 | 8 |
Honestly, I'm not keen on too many outfielders as blue chip properties today. Billy Hamilton probably stands out as a bizarre choice. With Kendrick on the bump, he should put plenty of balls in play. A hit, a stolen base, and a run would be more than enough to provide core value. There's certainly upside for more. This is the type of pick I usually advocate at second base (i.e. Dee Gordon), but I'm unimpressed with alternatives like Starling Marte versus whoever the Marlins start.
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