MLB Cash Game Picks : 5-4-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, L, Dodgers
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$11,300	$12,000	@Brewers	2.81	33.3	50	3 and -187

Felix Hernandez, R, Mariners
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$11,000	$12,200	@Angels	2.20	27.5	63.5	3 and -130

Dallas Keuchel, L, Astros
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opponent	FIP	K%	GB%	Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML
$8,500	$8,000	Rangers	2.83	16.3	65.3	3 and -196

Clayton Kershaw is having a "down" year and ranks 15th among qualified pitchers in FIP. If that doesn't speak to how good he is, I don't know what does. He's leading qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and K-BB% (27.9%). Seriously, this is what a "down" year looks like from Kershaw. The Brewers stand almost no chance against Kershaw tonight. They rank dead last in wRC+ (25) against lefties this year and have the fourth highest strikeout rate (25.4%). Predictably, Kershaw is the biggest betting favorite tonight. The seeds are planted for a special performance tonight.

Felix Hernandez is a modest betting favorite by his standards, but he has a great matchup. The Angels rank 28th in wRC+ (72) and they own the 13th highest strikeout rate (20.6%) against right-handed pitchers. And if you weren't aware, King Felix is pretty good. He ranks tied for fifth in FIP, 10th in strikeout rate and sixth in K-BB% (22.9%). He's also about as consistent at they come pitching seven or more innings in three of five starts and pitching five innings in his shortest outing. He'll give you a great turn, but Kershaw is better for the price tonight.

Dallas Keuchel edges out some other great pitchers, namely Madison Bumgarner and Tyson Ross. The two pitchers he edges out are pitching against one another, making it difficult to rely on either to pick up a win. Keuchel, on the other hand, is a huge favorite to win. His odds to win have hovered right around those of Kershaw, and he could close at first pitch as the biggest betting favorite tonight. Quite the bargain his price on FanDuel and DraftKings. He lacks the strikeout upside of Kershaw and King Felix, but that's roughly the only knock on him. Keuchel ranks 17th in FIP and once again leads qualified hurlers in groundball rate. I will be pairing Keuchel with Kershaw on all of my DraftKings cash games rosters and will he'll give Kershaw a run for his money as most owned starter on FanDuel in cash games for me.

Evan Gattis, R, Astros
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,400	$4,800	Ross Detwiler LHP	0.354	0.247	126	4	4.5

Stephen Vogt, L, Athletics
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,000	$3,400	Phil Hughes RHP	0.335	0.162	116	3	3.5

Evan Gattis getting the tout as the top catcher in cash games is as much about Ross Detwiler as it is about him. Gattis' numbers above illustrate he hits for power and is a well above average hitter when facing a lefty. His power gets a boost from playing at Minute Maid Park where the right-handed batter park factor for doubles/triples is 111 and homers is 123. Back to Detwiler, though, he's dreadful against right-handed batters. Since 2012, the southpaw has served up a .355 wOBA to 1,009 right-handed batters.

Stephen Vogt went deep twice yesterday, and that will drive his ownership up today. That doesn't matter in cash games. Vogt has been the third best hitter in the game this year as measured by wRC+ (207), and he's at his best against righties (211). He's walked in more plate appearances than he's struck out, and it's easy to see why he's ascended to third in the order for the A's. Phil Hughes is actually better against left-handed batters than righties, but everything else comes up roses for Vogt and he's one of the more affordable top options at his position.

Paul Goldschmidt, R, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$6,100	$5,700	Tyler Matzek LHP	0.444	0.291	182	3	4.5

Justin Morneau, L, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$4,000	$4,100	Josh Collmenter RHP	0.355	0.200	131	4	4.5

Paul Goldschmidt's price point is gigantic on FanDuel and DraftKings, however, he has the highest floor and ceiling of any hitter tonight. He crushes lefties and has very variable working in his favor. Tyler Matzek has served up a .368 wOBA to the 459 righties he's faced in his big league career. As a right-handed batter, Goldy will hit with park factors of 113 for singles, 112 for doubles/triples, 118 for homers and 130 for runs at Coors Field. If you can budget for him, Goldschmidt is a no-brainer at first base, but there is almost no way he can be budgeted for with Kershaw on FanDuel.

Justin Morneau isn't cheap, but he is relative to Goldy and not overpriced by any means. He's not Goldschmidt good, but he's privy to the same positive variables as his opponent at first base. The pitcher he's facing, Josh Collmenter, has allowed a .322 wOBA to right-handed batters. As a lefty, the park factors Morneau will hit with are 107 for singles, 115 for doubles/triples, 120 for homers and 133 for runs. It's also worth noting how incredibly good Morneau has been against righties at Coors Field. Last year, he had 209 plate appearances against righties at Coors Field and totaled a .219 ISO, .416 wOBA and 152 wRC+, and in 30 plate appearances this year, he's totaled a .143 ISO, .455 wOBA and 178 wRC+.

Jose Altuve, R, Astros
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$4,900	$5,400	Ross Detwiler LHP	0.391	0.140	151	1	4.5

Robinson Cano, L, Mariners
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,600	$4,100	Matt Shoemaker RHP	0.414	0.238	167	3	3.5

There is no such thing as a "must use" player in daily fantasy, but Jose Altuve against a southpaw has become possibly the closest thing. Altuve's excellence against lefties is illustrated in the tables above, but Detwiler's putridness against righties isn't. Just a reminder -- as I noted in Gattis' write-up -- Detwiler has allowed a .355 wOBA to righties since 2012. When Altuve reaches base, his fantasy point scoring potential isn't limited to being driven in. He's one of the best base stealers in the game. Altuve has nine stolen bases in 11 chances and stole 56 in 65 tries last year.

Robinson Cano is money in the bank against righties. Since 2012, he ranks third among qualified hitters in wRC+ and wOBA. That's among all qualified hitters, not just second basemen. He hits in a cushy lineup spot, and he's facing a pitcher, Matt Shoemaker, who doesn't exactly tie up left-handed batters (.318 wOBA allowed in his career). Shoemaker's velocity was at a high last starter, per Brooks Baseball, but it's still down on the year as a whole and even in that start it was below his average velo last year. Diminished velocity is bad news for pitchers trying to retire opposing hitters, and good news for those hitters.

Kyle Seager, L, Mariners
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$2,800	$3,600	Matt Shoemaker RHP	0.355	0.185	130	5	3.5

Yasmany Tomas, R, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,000	$4,700	Tyler Matzek LHP	0.144	0.000	-19	6	4.5

Kyle Seager is more left-handed exposure to the diminished velocity of Shoemaker. To further elaborate on Shoemaker, he's been a mess this year. He owns a 4.84 FIP and has allowed a 46.3% flyball rate. His high flyball rate has resulted in coughing up four homers in four starts. Seager is off to a slow start, and that's reflected in his price on FanDuel and DraftKings. His track record against righties is strong, though, as his table above illustrates. The hot corner stinks tonight, and Seager will award you a cheap option -- important on a Kershaw/King Felix slate.

Yasmany Tomas hit fifth for the Diamondbacks against lefty Brett Anderson yesterday. Hitting there again tonight would be a boon for his value. He's not a player I'll use on DraftKings due to his eligibility being limited to the outfield, but he's a great play at third base on FanDuel. He'll hit with the aforementioned right-handed batter park factors in the Goldy lineup, and he'll be hitting just a couple spots behind that stud. Tomas' has far too little statistical data to meaningfully dig into, but the scouting reports of above average power are enticing for using him tonight.

Jhonny Peralta, R, Cardinals
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$2,500	$4,000	Travis Wood LHP	0.355	0.186	125	5	4

Jhonny Peralta is hands down my favorite play at shortstop tonight. He checks most of the boxes. It's starts with him hitting in a top-five lineup spot. Peralta is better against lefties than righties, and Travis Wood is worse against righties than lefties. Wood has allowed a .329 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012. No, Busch Stadium isn't a great offensive venue, but that's roughly the only knock on Peralta. He'll provide great salary relief on FanDuel and a fair price on DraftKings.

Corey Dickerson, L, Rockies
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$4,800	$5,000	Josh Collmenter RHP	0.395	0.259	138	2	4.5

A.J. Pollock, R, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary	DraftKings Salary	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Vegas Team Run Total
$3,700	$4,400	Tyler Matzek LHP	0.355	0.209	122	2	4.5

Corey Dickerson is a monster at home against righties. Since reaching the majors in 2013, he's totaled 309 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at Coors Field and totaled a .363 ISO, .489 wOBA and 202 wRC+. Those numbers are staggering and almost unbelievable. He'll get the same park factor and pitcher matchup benefits cited in Morneau's write-up, and while he's more expensive than Morneau, he's also the better hitter. Dickerson is my favorite expensive Coors Field option in cash games because he allows more roster flexibility than Goldschmidt. Also, his ceiling isn't all that much lower than Goldy's.

Trying to make sense of manager Chip Hale's playing time rotations and lineups is becoming a waste of effort. Lefty Ender Inciarte hit leadoff against left-handed pitcher Brett Anderson, but thankfully he got it right hitting A.J. Pollock second. As long as Pollock hits leadoff or in the two-hole, he makes for a great play at Coors Field tonight. He offers a nice blend of power (.209 ISO) and contact (12.8% strikeout rate) against lefties in his career. Pollock isn't a slouch on the bases either. He stole 14 bases in 17 chances last year in just 75 games played, and he's stolen four bases this year. Toss in the park factors, high betting total and Matzek's shortcomings against right-handed batters and you have an awesome cash games option in Pollock.

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