Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead, you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points, respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher


Zack Greinke, R, Dodgers

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opponent FIP K% GB% Vegas Opp.
Run Total & ML
$10,100 $9,800 @Brewers 3.01 21.1 50.0 3 and -164
Zack Greinke is the second biggest betting favorite on the night, according to Pinnacle Sports, but he's my favorite cash games target. The Brewers aren't as bad against righties as lefties, but they're no great shakes against right-handed pitchers. They rank 26th in wRC+ (82) and have the fourth highest strikeout rate (22.7%) against right-handed pitchers this year, per FanGraphs. Greinke ranks 25th in FIP, keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate and pounds the strike zone and misses bats which results in the 29th best K-BB% (15.6%). He's pitched at least six innings in all five of his starts and allowed no more than three earned runs in a turn. Greinke is also backed by the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitchers, and he should get plenty of run support.



Stephen Strasburg, R, Nationals

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opponent FIP K% GB% Vegas
Opp. Run Total & ML
$9,500 $10,200 Marlins 2.55 22.6 43.5 3 and -176

Stephen Strasburg has frustrated daily gamers, but advanced metrics point to brighter days ahead, and Vegas has him pegged as the biggest betting favorite tonight. Strasburg has been plagued by a ridiculous .402 BABIP allowed through five starts. His career BABIP allowed is .303, and according to the new batted ball data at FanGraphs, he's inducing the highest percentage of soft contact since his rookie season and his hard contact rate is the lowest it has been since a five start 2011 season. ZiPS and Steamer projection systems peg him for around a three ERA, give or take a little, going forward. His metrics suggest that should be the case, and the Marlins provide him an opportunity for a big night. They rank 20th in wRC+ (89) and have the eighth highest strikeout rate (21.7%) against righties this year.


Shelby Miller, R, Braves

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opponent FIP K% GB% Vegas
Opp. Run Total & ML
$8,700 $8,200 Phillies 4.24 19.3 48.8 3 and -155

Shelby Miller is a little less talented than the pitchers I tend to like to roll with in cash games, but there are a lot of factors working in his favor tonight. He's the third biggest betting favorite, so that's a good starting point. The righty has a cupcake matchup against the Phillies. They rank 29th in wRC+ (59) against right-handed pitchers. In other words, they're the second worst team when facing a righty this year. As for Miller, no, he's not as good as his 2.17 ERA. There are positives to be gleaned from his numbers, though. Miller has significantly changed his pitch mix in his first year with the Braves, shaving his fourseam fastball usage almost exactly in half while boosting his sinker and cutter usage, per Brooks Baseball. The change in fastballs he's throwing has resulted in a monstrous jump in groundball rate from 39.9% in 2014 to 48.8% this year. His control is lackluster this year, but the Phillies have done a poor job of working walks, so concerns about that are reduced. The young right-handed pitcher's swinging strike rate is up and so is his strikeout rate. The Phillies don't punch out a ton, so his strikeout upside is mediocre, but I don't expect the contact they make to be damaging.


Catcher


Stephen Vogt, L, Athletics

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$3,500 $3,900 Trevor May, RHP 0.339 0.167 119 5 4
This isn't chasing last night's performance. Stephen Vogt has been awesome all year and was very good last year. He hit fifth yesterday, and whether he's hitting third or fifth he'll have a favorable lineup spot. His showing yesterday pushed his season wRC+ up to 222, the second highest mark among qualified hitters trailing only Nelson Cruz's 223 wRC+. The A's catcher also cracks the top five in ISO with a .346 mark. His plate discipline has been exquisite with a 14.0% walk rate and he hasn't sacrificed contact for power with just an 11.8% strikeout rate. Trevor May is one of the worst pitchers on tonight's slate having served up a .367 wOBA to the 154 left-handed batters he's faced in his big league career. Vogt remains under priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is easy to budget for.



A.J. Pierzynski, L, Braves

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$2,700 $3,400 Chad Billingsley, RHP 0.334 0.184 108 4 4

A.J. Pierzynski is cheap for a cleanup hitter. That alone makes him an enticing option at catcher. He's a slightly above average hitter against righties since 2012, and he'll be facing a pitcher, Chad Billingsley, who last pitched in the big leagues in 2013. Billingsley has battled back from injury and hasn't broken the 100-innings plateau since 2012. He hasn't exactly lit the Triple-A level on fire this year totaling a 4.82 FIP in four starts, and a messy outing from him is certainly possible. If that proves to be the case, Pierzynski should be in the middle of the action.


First Base


Adrian Gonzalez, L, Dodgers

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$4,200 $4,900 Matt Garza, RHP 0.369 0.204 138 4 4
Adrian Gonzalez reached base in all four of his plate appearances last night working three walks and getting hit by a pitch. Unfortunately, he only came around to score one run. Overall, a fine showing. He's been a monster against right-handed pitchers with his wRC+ and ISO trending upwards each of the last few years, and he's been a stud this year blistering righties to the tune of a .416 ISO, .521 wOBA and 243 wRC+ in 88 plate appearances. Another appearance in Miller Park is ideal for him tapping into his pop. According to StatCorner, lefties enjoy ballpark factors of 105 for singles, 101 for doubles/triples, 124 for homers and 107 for runs. He'll take cuts against a struggling Matt Garza who owns a 5.48 FIP through five starts this year.


Lucas Duda, L, Mets

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$3,300 $4,000 Bud Norris, RHP 0.365 0.222 138 4 3.5
Lucas Duda is oh so affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. He hasn't flashed the big power of his breakout 2014 campaign, but it's hard to argue with his .350 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers so far this year through 78 plate appearances. Pair his production this year with his gaudy since 2012 numbers in the table above and you've got yourself a nice hitter who is under priced. It gets better though, he's facing a pitcher who struggles mightily with left-handed batters. Bud Norris has allowed a .361 wOBA to 1,229 left-handed batters faced since 2012.


Second Base


Jose Altuve, R, Astros

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs LHP
2012-2015
ISO vs LHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs LHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Run Total
$4,800 $5,300 Wandy Rodriguez, LHP 0.392 0.142 152 1 4.5
Jose Altuve gets another left-handed pitcher tonight. Wandy Rodriguez isn't Ross Detwiler level inept against right-handed batters -- few are -- but a .320 wOBA allowed is nothing to write home about either. Last year's batting champion has remarkably kicked it up a notch this season, and he's a terror for southpaws, as the table above indicates. His floor is elevated roughly as high as any other hitter's due to his lineup spot, leadoff, and contact skills (8.1% strikeout rate this year). His ceiling is quite high, too, thanks in large part to his great base stealing skills. He's already nabbed 10 bases in 26 games played this year and he stole 56 last season. Altuve is the most expensive second baseman on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he can be budgeted for without rostering trash.



Dustin Pedroia, R, Red Sox

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs LHP
2012-2015
ISO vs LHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs LHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Run Total
$2,900 $3,800 Drew Smyly, LHP 0.371 0.163 134 2 3.5

If you're not using Altuve on your cash games roster, you damn well better be getting a steep discount to look elsewhere while retaining some ceiling and floor. Dustin Pedroia fits that bill. Pedroia, too, has a favorable lineup spot and is excellent against lefties. He's not as dynamic of a player as Altuve is, but he might have a more favorable pitching matchup. Drew Smyly has allowed a .326 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012, and his wOBA was aided a bit by his time in the bullpen in 2013. Last year, he allowed a .334 wOBA to righties working as a starter.


Third Base


Kris Bryant, R, Cubs

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs LHP
2012-2015
ISO vs LHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs LHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Run Total
$3,500 $4,300 Tyler Lyons, LHP 0.272 0.091 69 4 3.5
Do you feel it? I feel it. Tonight is the night Kris Bryant hits his first big league homer. Bryant smacked 43 homers across the Double-A and Triple-A levels combined last year and crushed three in just 33 plate appearances at the Triple-A level to open this year. His power is unquestionably among the most elite in the league. His plate discipline has been otherworldly thus far with a 22.2% walk rate through his first 72 big league plate appearances, and the power finally manifests itself in a tater tonight. No, Busch Stadium isn't a homer-amplifying venue with a right-handed batter park factor for homers of 84. The pitching matchup is what inspires confidence in me. He's facing lefty Tyler Lyons of the Cardinals who has allowed a .338 wOBA to right-handed batters in his limited big league service time. He doesn't miss many right-handed bats (17.5% strikeout rate) and has given up hard contact on 34.8% of batted balls by righties since 2012, the third highest mark among probable pitchers tonight. Hard contact from Bryant could mean a souvenir for a lucky fan tonight.



Alex Rodriguez, R, Yankees

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$3,300 $4,000 Marcos Estrada, RHP 0.335 0.180 109 3 4

Speaking of hard contact and homers, Alex Rodriguez has provided fans with six souvenirs this year. Four of his six homers this year have been hit against righties, and he's facing one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball tonight in Marco Estrada. The righty owns a silly 1.40 HR/9 in his career. Among pitchers who have totaled a minimum of 400 innings since 2012, his 1.41 HR/9 ranks as the third highest. He's given up more hard contact to right-handed batters than any other probable pitcher tonight, and the Rogers Centre is not the ballpark for ceding flyballs (45.6% flyball rate since 2012) or hard contact with a right-handed batter park factor of 118 for doubles/triples and 120 for homers. It could get especially dicey for Estrada if he allows a flyball to A-Rod since the third baseman/designated hitter ranks 19th in average flyball and homer distance this year, according to Baseball Heat Maps.


Shortstop


Starlin Castro, R, Cubs

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs LHP
2012-2015
ISO vs LHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs LHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Run Total
$3,100 $3,800 Tyler Lyons, LHP 0.319 0.116 99 5 3.5
Starlin Castro is my slam dunk pick at shortstop in cash games and GPPs when factoring in price, upside and pitching matchup. His since 2012 stats against lefties don't jump off the page, but that's the result of a flukey bad 2013 campaign that looks like an outlier at this point. With the exception of the 69 wRC+ against lefties he posted that year, he's never posted a wRC+ lower than 107 against lefties in a season. Last year, he totaled a 117 wRC+ against southpaws in 127 plate appearances, and for his career, he owns a 112 mark -- and that includes his ugly 2013 season. He typically hits sixth but has been bumped up to fifth in the order when the Cubs face a southpaw on occasion, so I'm guessing he'll hit fifth tonight. The coveted top-five lineup spot will help his value immensely.



Outfield


Brett Gardner, L, Yankees

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$3,800 $5,000 Marcos Estrada, RHP 0.335 0.151 110 2 4
Brett Gardner's spot in the two-hole could prove to a be a fruitful one, likely hitting directly in front of A-Rod. I didn't do so in A-Rod's write-up, but I'll mention that I declared him my pick for dong of the day on the Fantasy Baseball Cafe message board already today (visual proof here). Gardner will be hitting directly in front of him, and getting on base could result in scoring a run when A-Rod reaches the seats. Anyway, I'm not just chasing a run scored from Gardner. Estrada has ceded a 47.3% flyball rate to left-handed batters since 2012, and flyballs result in extra base hits. Gardner tapped into never-before-seen power last year swatting 17 homers, and he's already hit two this year in 92 plate appearances. Last year was the first time he reached double digits in homers, and he is on pace to do so once again this year with a season of good health. In addition to his power, Gardner brings elite speed to the table. In a down year last season from a stolen base perspective, he still stole 21 bases. This year, he's on pace to blow past that mark with eight already. As tantalizing as the ceiling is, Gardner's floor is on the rise, too, with him sporting the lowest strikeout rate of his career (12.0.%) and a walk rate of 10.9% that bests his career rate of 10.0%.



Joc Pederson, L, Dodgers

FanDuel Salary DraftKings Salary Opp Pitcher & Handedness wOBA vs RHP
2012-2015
ISO vs RHP
2012-2015
wRC+ vs RHP
2012-2015
Batting Order Vegas Team Run Total
$3,700 $4,300 Matt Garza, RHP 0.412 0.295 170 1 4

Joc Pederson's ownership should be on the rise after another productive outing yesterday in which he hit his seventh homer of the year. In cash games, that's fine. He's likely firmly cemented himself in the leadoff spot, and in addition to his massive power output (.351 ISO) his 19.8% walk rate looks pretty sexy. Garza has allowed a .311 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012, so he's not incredibly giving, nor is he extremely tough on lefties. As I indicated above, though, he's been struggling this year. Garza isn't striking many batters out, 14.3%, he's issuing too many free passes, 9.8% walk rate, and he's coughing up homers at an alarming 1.53 HR/9 rate. The homer rate will almost certainly normalize, but his lack of strikeouts and lackluster control lead me to believe he's feeding hitters some cookies this year. The 61 lefties he's faced this season have feasted with a .347 wOBA and six extra base hits (three doubles and three homers) while walking nearly as many times as they've struck out, seven and eight times, respectively. Pederson is under priced and a great option for cash gamers -- and GPP gamers for that matter.





Comments
joshshep50
If the weather looks more favorable, consult yesterday's Cash Games Picks for the bats I like at Coors Field. The probable pitchers remain the same, so the analysis is still fitting.
JasonG4s
Kris Bryant!! Great picks, I have Pedroia in a lot of lineups. Altuve is too pricey.
bigitaly42
I am rolling Altuve in my main cash game lineup. I love the huge gap between him and the others at 2B most nights. Really sets your cash game lineups apart from others.
sports_25tolife
Thanks for the COL tip Josh, I like the Greinke/Stras duo quite a bit.