MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball
Pitcher
Zack Greinke, R, Dodgers | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML |
$10,100 | $9,800 | @Brewers | 3.01 | 21.1 | 50.0 | 3 and -164 |
Stephen Strasburg, R, Nationals | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML |
$9,500 | $10,200 | Marlins | 2.55 | 22.6 | 43.5 | 3 and -176 |
Stephen Strasburg has frustrated daily gamers, but advanced metrics point to brighter days ahead, and Vegas has him pegged as the biggest betting favorite tonight. Strasburg has been plagued by a ridiculous .402 BABIP allowed through five starts. His career BABIP allowed is .303, and according to the new batted ball data at FanGraphs, he's inducing the highest percentage of soft contact since his rookie season and his hard contact rate is the lowest it has been since a five start 2011 season. ZiPS and Steamer projection systems peg him for around a three ERA, give or take a little, going forward. His metrics suggest that should be the case, and the Marlins provide him an opportunity for a big night. They rank 20th in wRC+ (89) and have the eighth highest strikeout rate (21.7%) against righties this year.
Shelby Miller, R, Braves | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Opp. Run Total & ML |
$8,700 | $8,200 | Phillies | 4.24 | 19.3 | 48.8 | 3 and -155 |
Shelby Miller is a little less talented than the pitchers I tend to like to roll with in cash games, but there are a lot of factors working in his favor tonight. He's the third biggest betting favorite, so that's a good starting point. The righty has a cupcake matchup against the Phillies. They rank 29th in wRC+ (59) against right-handed pitchers. In other words, they're the second worst team when facing a righty this year. As for Miller, no, he's not as good as his 2.17 ERA. There are positives to be gleaned from his numbers, though. Miller has significantly changed his pitch mix in his first year with the Braves, shaving his fourseam fastball usage almost exactly in half while boosting his sinker and cutter usage, per Brooks Baseball. The change in fastballs he's throwing has resulted in a monstrous jump in groundball rate from 39.9% in 2014 to 48.8% this year. His control is lackluster this year, but the Phillies have done a poor job of working walks, so concerns about that are reduced. The young right-handed pitcher's swinging strike rate is up and so is his strikeout rate. The Phillies don't punch out a ton, so his strikeout upside is mediocre, but I don't expect the contact they make to be damaging.
Catcher
Stephen Vogt, L, Athletics | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$3,500 | $3,900 | Trevor May, RHP | 0.339 | 0.167 | 119 | 5 | 4 |
A.J. Pierzynski, L, Braves | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$2,700 | $3,400 | Chad Billingsley, RHP | 0.334 | 0.184 | 108 | 4 | 4 |
A.J. Pierzynski is cheap for a cleanup hitter. That alone makes him an enticing option at catcher. He's a slightly above average hitter against righties since 2012, and he'll be facing a pitcher, Chad Billingsley, who last pitched in the big leagues in 2013. Billingsley has battled back from injury and hasn't broken the 100-innings plateau since 2012. He hasn't exactly lit the Triple-A level on fire this year totaling a 4.82 FIP in four starts, and a messy outing from him is certainly possible. If that proves to be the case, Pierzynski should be in the middle of the action.
First Base
Adrian Gonzalez, L, Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$4,200 | $4,900 | Matt Garza, RHP | 0.369 | 0.204 | 138 | 4 | 4 |
Lucas Duda, L, Mets | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,000 | Bud Norris, RHP | 0.365 | 0.222 | 138 | 4 | 3.5 |
Second Base
Jose Altuve, R, Astros | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,800 | $5,300 | Wandy Rodriguez, LHP | 0.392 | 0.142 | 152 | 1 | 4.5 |
Dustin Pedroia, R, Red Sox | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,900 | $3,800 | Drew Smyly, LHP | 0.371 | 0.163 | 134 | 2 | 3.5 |
If you're not using Altuve on your cash games roster, you damn well better be getting a steep discount to look elsewhere while retaining some ceiling and floor. Dustin Pedroia fits that bill. Pedroia, too, has a favorable lineup spot and is excellent against lefties. He's not as dynamic of a player as Altuve is, but he might have a more favorable pitching matchup. Drew Smyly has allowed a .326 wOBA to right-handed batters since 2012, and his wOBA was aided a bit by his time in the bullpen in 2013. Last year, he allowed a .334 wOBA to righties working as a starter.
Third Base
Kris Bryant, R, Cubs | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,500 | $4,300 | Tyler Lyons, LHP | 0.272 | 0.091 | 69 | 4 | 3.5 |
Alex Rodriguez, R, Yankees | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,000 | Marcos Estrada, RHP | 0.335 | 0.180 | 109 | 3 | 4 |
Speaking of hard contact and homers, Alex Rodriguez has provided fans with six souvenirs this year. Four of his six homers this year have been hit against righties, and he's facing one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball tonight in Marco Estrada. The righty owns a silly 1.40 HR/9 in his career. Among pitchers who have totaled a minimum of 400 innings since 2012, his 1.41 HR/9 ranks as the third highest. He's given up more hard contact to right-handed batters than any other probable pitcher tonight, and the Rogers Centre is not the ballpark for ceding flyballs (45.6% flyball rate since 2012) or hard contact with a right-handed batter park factor of 118 for doubles/triples and 120 for homers. It could get especially dicey for Estrada if he allows a flyball to A-Rod since the third baseman/designated hitter ranks 19th in average flyball and homer distance this year, according to Baseball Heat Maps.
Shortstop
Starlin Castro, R, Cubs | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,100 | $3,800 | Tyler Lyons, LHP | 0.319 | 0.116 | 99 | 5 | 3.5 |
Outfield
Brett Gardner, L, Yankees | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$3,800 | $5,000 | Marcos Estrada, RHP | 0.335 | 0.151 | 110 | 2 | 4 |
Joc Pederson, L, Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Team Run Total |
$3,700 | $4,300 | Matt Garza, RHP | 0.412 | 0.295 | 170 | 1 | 4 |
Joc Pederson's ownership should be on the rise after another productive outing yesterday in which he hit his seventh homer of the year. In cash games, that's fine. He's likely firmly cemented himself in the leadoff spot, and in addition to his massive power output (.351 ISO) his 19.8% walk rate looks pretty sexy. Garza has allowed a .311 wOBA to left-handed batters since 2012, so he's not incredibly giving, nor is he extremely tough on lefties. As I indicated above, though, he's been struggling this year. Garza isn't striking many batters out, 14.3%, he's issuing too many free passes, 9.8% walk rate, and he's coughing up homers at an alarming 1.53 HR/9 rate. The homer rate will almost certainly normalize, but his lack of strikeouts and lackluster control lead me to believe he's feeding hitters some cookies this year. The 61 lefties he's faced this season have feasted with a .347 wOBA and six extra base hits (three doubles and three homers) while walking nearly as many times as they've struck out, seven and eight times, respectively. Pederson is under priced and a great option for cash gamers -- and GPP gamers for that matter.
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