MLB Cash Game Picks: 5-6-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher

There are a few top pitchers on the slate tonight. A couple options like Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom have the talent, but the matchup is iffy.

Gerrit Cole might be the safest selection of the evening. The game is at pitcher-friendly PNC Park, and he's opposed by a mediocre Reds offense. Cole has the stuff to overwhelm any opponent. His swinging strike and strikeout rates are at career bests. As far as I can tell, he is throwing more sliders to left-handed hitters when ahead in the count. If there is a drawback, it's that the Pirates handle Cole with kid gloves. He's averaged only six innings per start.

You may be wondering about Jon Lester's inclusion. Despite the shiny FIP, he has a 4.71 ERA. Part of that can be chalked up to a fluky .360 BABIP. Another portion can be pinned upon his inability to hold base runners. NL teams have swiped nine bags in 10 attempts against Lester, and the trend will only continue. He struggles with even token pickoff moves, so stolen base threats run rampant.

The good news for Lester is that the Cardinals are a station-to-station club. They have 14 team steals. That will make it easier for him to lean upon a robust strikeout rate and low walk rate. Another point in Lester's favor: Busch Stadium is pitcher friendly. There are flaws with the pick, but it's reasonably safe.

I understand some people aren't on the Carlos Carrasco bandwagon. It's the perfect time to hop aboard. Carrasco has a 4.98 ERA in large part due to a .407 BABIP and 14.3 percent HR/FB ratio. His stuff has picked up right where it left off last season. He features a 95 mph fastball with three borderline elite offspeed pitches. He uses the entire repertoire aggressively. Kauffman Stadium suppresses home run power. Unfortunately, the Royals high contact offense could cut down on his strikeout numbers and test his ability to suppress hits on balls in play.

Catcher

Stephen Vogt, the A's 30-year-old catcher, is just two home runs from tying his career high. Through his first 93 plate appearances, he's hit like a better version of 2014 Victor Martinez. He has more walks than strikeouts, power, and frequent hard contact. If there is any notable deficiency, it's that he's pulled most of his contact. He's up against a decent ground ball pitcher in the form of Kyle Gibson at a stadium that does not reward left-handed power.

If you wanted to construct a narrative about Russell Martin, you might say that he took a while to settle into Toronto. Now he is comfortable. The only thing he didn't do well last season was hit for power. He's already gone yard five times in 94 plate appearances. Tonight, he'll have the platoon advantage against the ghost of CC Sabathia. Martin has always hit slightly better against southpaws.

First Base

We have three Dodgers listed today, so it might seem like we want to target Wily Peralta. It's not a bad idea – even if he's not a classic pitcher to exploit. He's having trouble getting his slightly slower fastball past hitters, as evidenced by his 13.4% strikeout rate. He still has the stuff and mound presence to prevent a full scale meltdown. Miller Park is rather pleasant for left-handed power which is where Adrian Gonzalez enters the picture. Peralta also has notable platoon splits – lefties have a career .346 wOBA against him.

Mark Teixeira has noisily blasted nine home runs. Quietly, he's also scuffled to a .127 BABIP. Don't immediately expect better days ahead. His BABIPs have been painfully low since 2009. He's opposed by a wily pitcher in Mark Buerhle. Tex has succeeded in 2015 by pulling mistakes for deep flies – mostly against right-handed pitchers. Buerhle may simply nibble the outside corner and force modest contact to the opposite field. It's not a drool worthy matchup, but there's still some upside in the middle of the Yankees lineup.

Second Base

Generally speaking, groundball hitters are best against flyball pitchers. Jose Altuve may not have the handedness platoon advantage against Colby Lewis, but he's on the winning side of the batted ball platoon. We know Altuve puts a lot of hard-hit contact in play. Lewis has a track record of allowing hard contact. Almost everything adds up. Altuve is a safe, expensive selection.

A few DFS owners are wary of players like Devon Travis. He's relatively unproven, and he wasn't supposed to be in the majors yet as of this offseason. I've talked to a few baseball insiders who say he's the real deal. The swing won't continue to support a .429 wOBA, but he should be a consistent hitter. He'll have the platoon advantage against Sabathia. At this point, I trust the scouting reports more than the data. Thankfully, both sources of information are in agreement.

Shortstop

Shortstop is the disappointing position of the evening. The most reliable choice – at least on DraftKings – is Hanley Ramirez. However, he's expected to miss a few more games after failing to tackle a wall. Jhonny Peralta could offer an unexciting alternative. It might not be worth much, but Peralta will have the platoon advantage versus Lester.

Jimmy Rollins is off to a miserable start with a weak .167/.257/.292 line. In my opinion, he's taken too passive an approach at the plate. He's always thrived on controlled aggression. Now it just looks like he's trying to work deep counts. In any event, the totality of history says he's a good play in Milwaukee. His last 109 plate appearances might lead us away from the match. Your best alternatives are Starlin Castro and Marcus Semien.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson is a part of the juicy Blue Jays stack against Sabathia. He is a career .294/.376/.578 hitter against southpaws. As we've noted, Sabathia is below average these days. Donaldson has the matchup, a hitter's park and a prominent place in the lineup. What more could you want?

Alex Rodriguez is an older, riskier version of Donaldson. He continues to mash the ball. However, his batted ball data suggests we should expect his .229 batting average to remain low. Buehrle is always an odd pitcher to exploit. On the one hand, he's incredibly underwhelming. On the other hand, he often avoids the worst case scenario. A-Rod is a reasonable bet for a home run.

Outfield

Mike Trout remains the king of kings. He'll have the platoon advantage opposite Roenis Elias. Trout has shown a mild reverse platoon split in his short career. Most reverse splits can be labelled as small sample noise. That's probably the case here as well. He offers an excellent combination of power and speed. The only constraints are his price tag and location.

Nelson Cruz sure doesn't have reverse splits. He'll also have the platoon advantage against the Angels and lefty C.J. Wilson. Cruz already has five home runs in 22 plate appearances versus southpaws this season. Over his career, he's spanked lefties to the tune of a .294/.370/.542 slash. Like Trout, his cost and locale are modest negative factors.

Cash game owners usually like to avoid high variance hitters like Joc Pederson. Sometimes, a changing role can make these types of players sufficiently valuable. Pederson has settled into the leadoff spot for the Dodgers. His .270/.421/.622 line hides a 32.3 percent strikeout rate. With seven home runs, 19 walks, and 31 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances, he's the definition of a three true outcomes hitter. Pederson may be a high variance pick, but his expected production makes him a wonderful bargain in Milwaukee.

Last and probably least is the Cubs' leadoff man. Dexter Fowler is opposed by Lance Lynn. It's not cause for celebration in the streets, but Lynn remains somewhat prone to opposite-handed hitters. You're just looking for a couple hits and a walk from Fowler. I wouldn't recommend him for a tournament. If you need a high floor, modest ceiling option to round out your outfield, Fowler is a solid choice.