MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-1-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pitcher

I'm inclined to zig from the Vegas recommendations today. Carlos Carrasco is an easy pick in my opinion. He's been betrayed by his defense in several outings. His 4.16 ERA is over a full run higher than his FIP. With 9.85 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9, he has the elite peripherals of a legit ace. His repertoire includes five above average pitches that he spots well. Perhaps this pick has a lower floor than a typical ace, but the ceiling is huge. The Rays and Tropicana Field combine for a moderately positive effect on his expected output.

Part of me feels weird about recommending Jose Quintana. FanDuel owners may want to ignore him entirely. He's an intriguing second starter for DraftKings. The game is at Busch Stadium which is a big, pitcher friendly upgrade over Quintana's home park. He's a sneaky bet for a win since he almost always throws six or seven innings. The Vegas folks rightly favor Lackey and the Cardinals, but the St. Louis offense has performed poorly against left-handed pitchers (89 wRC+). I foresee a low scoring game.

Catcher

While Buster Posey is undoubtedly the best catcher available, a matchup against Dan Haren at Marlins Stadium makes his price tag unsavory. Instead, turn to switch-hitter Matt Wieters against Texas righty Nick Martinez. Wieters' power has been on full display since returning from the disabled list. Eight of his 15 hits have gone for extra bases. His swing-and-miss rates are up, but Martinez pitches to contact. Camden Yards is particularly good for left-handed power.

First Base

On 6-10, I recommended Paul Goldschmidt against Brett Anderson. Yeah, he costs a lot. He's also the undisputed king against left-handed pitchers. In that first meeting, Goldy went 4-for-5 with two runs scored, two RBI, and a home run. He's up to .352/.467/.637 on the season. Tonight promises round two of the Goldschmidt versus Anderson show. There's no guarantee he'll return value on his ridiculous price tag, but there are few safer bets.

Do yourself a favor and pony up for a first baseman. Goldschmidt might be difficult to roster, but there's no excuse to also pass on Anthony Rizzo. He's hitting a robust .304/.413/.568 on the season. Rizzo has a decent matchup against Colon at CitiField. Rizzo offers power, contact skills, plate discipline, and sneaky speed. He can return value by bashing a home run or going 3-for-4.

Second Base

Second base offers a few decent options tonight. At the high end of the price spectrum, you have multi-hit specialist Dee Gordon and Indians star Jason Kipnis. Both have decent matchups at pitcher-friendly stadiums. Howie Kendrick will face a largely unproven pitcher in Arizona (Robbie Ray). My preference is to double down on Jason's recommendation from yesterday – Jimmy Paredes. Paredes' biggest issue is a high whiff rate. When he makes contact, it tends to be high quality (32 percent hard hit rate). As we already noted, left-handed power is boosted at Camden Yards.

Shortstop

Entering yesterday, 25 of Carlos Correa's balls in play had a bat exit velocity of over 100 mph. Since he was activated, that's the most hard hit balls out of everyone in the league. It's clear that the young slugger offers a quality of contact unavailable in non-Tulowitzki shortstops. Until he plays his way into utter un-affordability, he's a must-pick for cash rosters. He still has some adjustments to make at the major league level, but he's still as safe a pick as shortstop offers. If you insist on a veteran, Jhonny Peralta is always a fine alternative.

Third Base

Through three months, Manny Machado has barely underperformed Miguel Cabrera. He already has a career best 16 home runs with no sign of stopping. Although he doesn't have the platoon advantage against Martinez, it has little effect on his performance. He's a still a high contact hitter with power and speed. Martinez coughs up his fair share of home runs. His 4.97 xFIP suggests he'll be lousy over the remainder of the season.

Across the aisle is a relative bargain – Adrian Beltre. The veteran stud is a ballsy option this evening. He was just showing signs of life prior to landing on the disabled list. The Rangers opted to activate him without a rehab assignment, and he's hit poorly since returning. However, there is some cause for hope. He went 3-for-5 with a double on Monday. Beltre has a long history of lefty mashing. He's opposed by Chen, a pitcher who occasionally struggles with right-handed hitters.

Outfield

Bryce Harper will face Braves prospect Matt Wisler. The righty has just two strikeouts through 12 innings of work. He wasn't very impressive at Triple-A (4.29 ERA, 3.32 FIP). Wisler does have above average command and control, but his stuff isn't sufficient to nullify Harper. For those who have lost track, Harper has 24 home runs to go with a .339/.465/.715 line. He's punished righties with a 1.216 OPS. Seems like a good day to make room for the top outfielder.

Michael Brantley is an easy pick. It's rare for the lefty to put up a zero. Between his ridiculous contact rate, doubles power, plate discipline, and speed, there are too many ways for him to provide value. To date, he has 37 walks against 22 strikeouts. Silly. The guy simply doesn't make free outs. His back injury has sapped the power he displayed last season, but he's still extremely reliable.

Scott Van Slyke is an industry favorite when facing a left-handed pitcher. The righty is probably good enough to start for most teams, but the Dodgers depth allows them to use him situationally. Once again, he's mashing lefties with a .300/.447/.567 line and more walks than strikeouts. Chase Field boosts righty power by 10 percent. He's opposed by Robbie Ray. The southpaw has a 1.98 ERA, but his peripherals are modest. Unlike some platoon bats, Van Slyke usually remains in the game after the starter has been pulled.If you're looking for an affordable, high floor option.