MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-22-15

Pitcher

For those who like to use the Vegas Moneyline to pick their pitchers, C.J. Wilson is the most favored tonight (-182). Vegas may like him, but I'm not recommending Wilson against the Twins. They have enough threats against left-handed pitching to ruin Wilson's night.

Finding an alternative is…difficult. Jose Fernandez offers a high floor and a decent ceiling. There's no doubt he's the most talented pitcher available. Unfortunately, with the Marlins out of the playoff race, we know they'll handle his recovery carefully. In the long run, that's good for everybody. For owners hoping to spike a studly performance tonight, don't expect more than six or seven innings. Given the dearth of alternatives, it still might be worthwhile to find the budget for him – especially on DraftKings.

Lance Lynn is the other obvious play this evening. He's allowed five or more runs in four of his 17 starts. He didn't allow more than two earned runs in any of the other 13 outings. Lynn is opposed by a mediocre White Sox lineup at power friendly U.S. Cellular Field. The Sox lineup isn't nearly as useless as it was at the beginning of the season, but it's still merely adequate. The Cardinals should have no problem defeating John Danks. The Moneyline barely favors Lynn. By my count, he's easily the most likely pitcher to earn a win.

Catcher

With few choices on the board, we're punting catcher this evening. Despite a bargain price tag, Matt Wieters is probably the top catching pick regardless of cost. He's opposed by righty Ivan Nova. The Yankees hurler has a sordid history with the long ball. Wieters has hit much better against righties this season (.292/.333/.486 in a small sample). Most importantly, the game is at Yankee Stadium. As we know, balls fly out of right field. There's only one downside – the Yankees have a solid bullpen full of left-handers.

First Base

Even first base can confound tonight. The obvious play is Albert Pujols. His power profile is a good match for Mike Pelfrey. The Twins starter has pitched poorly in five of his last six outings (hence why Vegas likes Wilson). Pelfrey hasn't actually allowed many home runs this season, and Pujols isn't terribly valuable if he's not hitting a long ball. Aside from Glen Perkins, the Twins bullpen is bad. If the Angels chase Pelfrey quickly, Pujols could get some even better matchups.

David Ortiz isn't a popular DFS pick these days, but he's hit decently since early June. It's usually best to aim for a high floor in cash games. Ortiz doesn't really offer that. He's a slightly more stable version of a Chris Davis gamble. With Ortiz, you're betting he powers up against Collin McHugh at Minute Maid Park. The park factors are favorable, and McHugh coughs up a home run per game.

Second Base

Entering the season, second base looked like a wasteland. It wound up deceptively deep. Options like Ian Kinsler against Mike Montgomery and Robinson Cano versus Anibal Sanchez are worthy of consideration today. However, there is one obvious play – Brian Dozier opposite Wilson. Dozier is one of the top lefty mashers in the league. This year, he's hitting southpaws to the tune of .267/.350/.505. His career numbers are slightly better. Due to good walk and strikeout rates, Dozier is the perfect combination of ceiling and floor for cash games. He should provide at least adequate production, and he has the ability to carry you if somebody else flops.

Shortstop

Both DraftKings and FanDuel say Wade Miley is starting. Don't be fooled! The Sox have tabbed Joe Kelly for tonight. Miley will be bumped to tomorrow. Kelly pitched well during his stint at Triple-A, but I wouldn't shy away from targeting him. As arguably the top shortstop, Carlos Correa should be popular for cash game owners. The only flaw in his profile is that he's not walking much. He has a history of good plate discipline. We're probably just witnessing some early-career aggression. He's best against lefties, but he still has a 119 wRC+ versus righties.

Third Base

I don't even pause to consider pitcher handedness when considering Manny Machado. Is he facing a lousy pitcher? Yes, rehabbing Ivan Nova. Is he at a hitter friendly park? Yes, Yankee Stadium. Can I afford his price tag? Well, maybe. The only limiting factor tonight is cost. He's an excellent pick for power, speed, contact, and OBP. In short, he's the total package.

There are better plays than Brett Lawrie. Trevor Plouffe against Wilson comes to mind. However, Lawrie is more affordable, and he's mashing lefties this season (no platoon split over his career). He's opposed by mediocre southpaw Felix Doubront. The former Red Sox and Cubs hurler has made two starts with Toronto. One was quite good. The other was terrible. Lawrie is hitting .308/.351/.538 against southpaws this season. One smell test for the validity of platoon splits is to check the walk and strikeout rates. If they're comparable, there's probably no split. In the case of Lawrie, he's walking nearly twice as often against lefties and his strikeout rate is halved. The Blue Jays have a terrible bullpen so he could produce all game long.

Outfield

Mike Trout is highly desirable against Pelfrey – just make sure he's in the lineup. The Twins hurler likes to work the lower quadrants of the zone. That's where Trout makes his best contact. There is a chance he may sit tonight because he's suffering from heel discomfort. He was off yesterday; I'm betting he returns tonight. If you'd rather target Pelfrey with a more affordable Angel, Kole Calhoun has hit well recently.

It's a good day to funnel money into the outfield. J.D. Martinez has stopped hitting home runs every day, but he's still showing off his power. He sent his 27^th home run over the wall yesterday. Since he makes so much hard contact, his swing-and-miss profile doesn't kill his batting average. The result is a tolerable floor and two home run ceiling. He's opposite Mariners lefty Mike Montgomery.

Brett Gardner is in the midst of a career season. He's retained the power he flashed last year while buffing his BABIP. The result is a .300/.378/.476 line. At this rate, he'll appear on some MVP ballots. A matchup with Kevin Gausman could be a positive or a negative. Gausman has good stuff and velocity, but he hasn't quite figured out the majors. Gardner's precisely the kind of pesky hitter who could flummox Gausman. With Yankee Stadium in play, a home run is possible.

I hate picking mid-tier players the day after a big game. Matt Holliday bashed a grand slam in yesterday's contest. He'll automatically be more popular today as a result. However, the situation is well worth making an investment. He's opposed by Danks at U.S. Cellular Field. The White Sox bullpen is bad. As a high average hitter, Holliday is a safe bet for DFS production today. We could even see another home run.