MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-29-15

Pitcher

There is room to debate the next best pick. John Lackey is probably the safest of the second tier options. The Reds have a 96 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They're not a terrible offensive team, but they aren't imposing either. It helps that the game is at pitcher friendly Busch Stadium. Lackey, uh, lacks the strikeout ceiling of a Lance McCullers, but he's a relatively safe bet to last seven innings. He's failed to do so in just six of 20 appearances. Pitching deep into the game means more points and a better chance to earn the victory (and thus more points). He's a classic high floor, modest ceiling pick.

With Clayton Kershaw's start being pushed back due to a hip issue, Mike Bolsinger will be filling in for L.A. tonight. Kershaw was the top option by far tonight, leading us to now choosing from a few risky cash game pitchers. Masahiro Tanaka has been up and down this season, and is pitching in Texas tonight. Tyson Ross gets the pitcher friendly Mets, in the Big Apple. Ross has the third best groundball rate in the bigs, and the 13th best FIP. The Mets offense create very little problems for pitchers, and this could very well be Ross' last start with San Diego.

Catcher

Catcher is usually a good position to punt, but I'm not sure I'd do so this evening. Russell Martin has a good (but pricey) matchup against Jerome Williams. Brian McCann will see Colby Lewis. However, Yasmani Grandal is my top pick for the evening. He's an affordable choice, and he bats in the heart of the Dodgers' lineup. Grandal is hitting a healthy .281/.395/.506 on the season – most of which has come against right-handed pitching. Athletics starter Jesse Chavez has sizable platoon splits, and Chavez Ravine (a different Chavez) is friendly to left-handed power. Grandal recently missed a few games with a jaw injury, but he returned to action last night.

First Base

It's not an impressive day for first base options. I've remained hesitant to jump on the Mark Teixeira bandwagon for cash games. My concern is related to his low BABIP. However, he's also improved his strikeout rate and power. The result is a .259/.362/.546 slash. This season, his best power numbers have come against right-handed pitching. The Rangers' stadium, Globe Life Park, is one of the best for offensive run production. It's also home run friendly. Need more? Teixeira has a .951 OPS against fly ball pitchers. Colby Lewis is one such fly-ball pitcher. Between park factors, power, and walks, Teixeira offers a well-rounded profile tonight. He's a better buy on FanDuel.

Adrian Gonzalez offers a similar profile to Teixeira at a slightly cheaper price. Unlike Tex, he hits for a high average. He's a .296/.377/.563 hitter against righties this season. Gonzalez has been hot since the All-Star Break, although he has dealt with a stiff neck in recent days. I actually like A's starter Jesse Chavez. I just happen to think Grandal and Gonzalez are among the safest, most cost effective plays at their position.

Second Base

You remember Anthony Rendon, right? Rendon is extremely affordable on DraftKings. He's liable to be rusty since he returned from the disabled list last Saturday. The 25-year-old is one of the best pure hitters in the league with a balanced approach at the plate. He's always a threat to post a four hit game. The Nationals lineup is starting to look rather stout with Rendon and outfielder Jayson Werth back in action. Koehler, like Chavez, is a solid pitcher. He's not an automatic exploit, but he probably won't shutout the opposition.

Shortstop

Who can pass up Troy Tulowitzki's Blue Jays debut? Scouts have suggested that Tulo has lost some of his lower half explosiveness, hence the lower power production. However, power can fluctuate wildly in a half season. It's possible that all is well with Tulowitzki. Throughout his career with Colorado, he has sizable home and road splits. Don't worry, he still has a .817 OPS on the road. As we know, the Rogers Centre is also hitter friendly. His supporting cast should treat him much better than the Rockies crew too.

An affordable alternative is Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts. He has big numbers against left-handed pitchers this season. A .427 BABIP certainly helps, but the strong production has held up throughout his brief career. His opponent, Jose Quintana, does not have platoon splits. With the Green Monster in play, it would be reasonable to gamble for a couple hits. He's batted third in the Boston lineup for most of the last month.

Third Base

Unlike some of the other positions, third base has an overwhelming volume of elite choices. Alex Rodriguez performs best against fly ball pitchers. Like Teixeira, ARod is a fan of fly ball pitchers. He's also homer happy in general with 24 bombs in 386 plate appearances. With a decent average, strong on base percentage, and power, he should be a relatively safe bet. As a bonus, the Rangers have a weak bullpen.

If you don't trust the veteran PED user, try 23-year-old Manny Machado. The young star is about as reliable as they come, and he's cheaper than ARod on both sites. Machado actually has modest reverse platoon splits* this season, so a start against righty Mike Foltynewicz isn't a bad thing. Machado has tapped into his latent power, and he's yet to blow out a knee. Foltynewicz is an unrefined power pitcher – exactly the kind of guy Machado could punish.

*I interpret that as neutral platoon splits

Outfield

The urge to pick Blue Jays against Jerome Williams will be hard to resist for most DFS participants. There is something to be said for fading obvious matchups, but I highly recommend Jose Bautista. In addition to the fantastic lineup, Bautista is best against ground ball pitchers – a .968 OPS over the last three years. Williams has a history of elevated ground ball rates, although he's been more balanced this year. Bautista is one of the best bets to hit a home run tomorrow. Bautista exited the game in the late innings, but said he will be back in the lineup today.

I swear I'm not intentionally picking on Chavez. It's kind of just happening all on its own. Joc Pederson is an atypical pick for a cash game lineup. He's a low floor, high ceiling play. Hitting atop the Dodgers lineup certainly helps his value. Both sites are underselling his median production, especially FanDuel. Even though he's a low average hitter, he's patient at the plate. The result is a .364 OBP against righties. He's worth the risk.

Adam Jones is a completely different sort of hitter. Characterized by hyper-aggression at the plate, Jones hits for a good average with very few walks. A fastball-centric pitcher like Foltynewicz is an ideal matchup. He should have little trouble putting the ball in play against the Braves. While there aren't any particular splits that insist you should use Jones, his price is particularly desirable on FanDuel.