MLB Cash Game Picks: 7-8-15

Cash Game Locks: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

Cash games typically reward high floor rosters. You don't need to score 60 points on FanDuel or 160 on DraftKings to win money. Instead you should aim for a nice base of around 40 and 120 points respectively. Our MLB Cash Game Picks will highlight the top pick and a value pick at each position for both platforms.

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw (L), Dodgers
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp	FIP	K%	GB%	Opp Run Total	Moneyline
$12,500	$13,300	Phillies	2.55	32.4	51.3	2.5	-358

I like these 11 game contests. With just a few games off the table, we still have plenty of targets, stacks, and exploits. Yet the choices don't feel overwhelmingly vast like they sometimes do with the 15 game slates (especially when a dozen bad pitchers are taking the hill).

Clayton Kershaw is always an easy choice as the top pitcher – even against a powerhouse like the Blue Jays. Of course, Kershaw isn't opposed by the Blue Jays tonight. Nope, it's the feckless Phillies. The club has discovered a couple interesting players who could be a part of their next contender (Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez). However, the current lineup tends to roll over without much fight.

We've talked about Kershaw's repertoire, his peripherals, and his legacy in previous episodes. Rather than rehash the old story, let's take a peek at his Moneyline. It's -358. For the non-gamblers in the crowd, you'll have to bet $358 to make $100 on this game. Vegas is pretty confident Kershaw will win this one. If there is a problem with Kershaw, it's that his price tag precludes you from using most of the excellent options listed below.

Gio Gonzalez (L), Nationals
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp	FIP	K%	GB%	Opp Run Total	Moneyline
$9,400	$8,700	Reds	3.16	20.5	56.5	3.5	-170

If you want a pitcher with a rosterable price tag, you have a few alternatives. I happen to like Drew Hutchison against John Danks and the Blue Jays. Vegas says it's an evenly matched game, but I just don't buy it. Toronto mashes lefties, and the White Sox are un-intimidating. Rather than Hutchison, Vegas prefers Gio Gonzalez against the Reds. Gonzalez has allowed just one run over his last two starts (14 IP). I'm not usually a proponent of the hot hand, but I was impressed with the command he showed in those two outings. He has the second most expensive Moneyline at -170.

Catcher

Russell Martin (R), Blue Jays
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,300	$4,300	John Danks LHP	0.343	0.162	118	5	4.5

We'll be picking on John Danks a few times in today's column. Toronto's offense has posted a 137 wRC+ against southpaws. Danks has allowed a .304/.356/.545 line to righties. Something is going to break here, and it's probably Danks. Or a Danks-thrown baseball. Russell Martin also powers up for southpaws with a .288/.403/.500 line. He's a little cold at the plate with just three hits in his last 10 games. Two of the hits were home runs.

Welington Castillo (R), Diamondbacks
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$2,900	$3,200	Matt Harrison LHP	0.373	0.173	136	6	4.5

Unlike certain other Blue Jays (ahem, Jose Bautista), Martin is relatively affordable. If you're dead set on a bargain behind the plate, consider Welington Castillo instead. He's opposed by lefty Matt Harrison in his return from the disabled list. Castillo has hit well since joining the Diamondbacks. He's pummeled lefties with a .807 OPS. At his best, Harrison used solid command and ground balls to keep runs off the board. He never dominated opponents with overwhelming stuff. He hasn't had regular work since 2012 due to injuries. Expect him to be rusty.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (R), Diamondbacks
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$5,200	$5,900	Matt Harrison LHP	0.444	0.285	182	3	4.5

Paul Goldschmidt remains the best hitter in the league against left-handed pitching. This year, he has a 1.115 OPS versus southpaws, many of whom are better than Harrison. The Rangers lefty has platoon splits too with a .277/.342/.438 career line. Expect even shakier numbers this season. Once Harrison is chased from the game, Goldschmidt can bite into the soft underbelly of the Rangers bullpen. With a 4.40 ERA and 4.49 FIP, Texas relievers are arguably the worst in the game.

Albert Pujols (R), Angels
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,800	$5,600	Chris Rusin LHP	0.329	0.224	114	4	5.5

Both FanDuel and DraftKings adjust well for the Coors Field Effect. Sure, you want to use guys in Denver, but the park advantage is boiled into the price. Albert Pujols is full-priced tomorrow, but there is a hint of vintage flare to him this season. He's bashed 26 home runs and could easily add more against Chris Rusin. The southpaw has pitched reasonably well, but he has allowed more than his share of home runs (14.6% HR/FB). That could be a problem with his sinker-heavy repertoire, a fluke, or the aforementioned Coors Effect.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis (L), Indians
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,200	$4,800	Dan Straily RHP	0.353	0.152	128	1	4

The Indians are at home against homer prone righty Dan Straily. The 26-year-old has solid command in the minors, but he's scuffled when promoted to the majors. Jason Kipnis is in full beast mode against right-handed pitchers with a .375/.463/.557 slash, 13.2 percent walk rate and 11.9 percent strikeout rate. He's easily the best offensive second baseman this season. Unfortunately, his price tag reflects his performance. Progressive Field is deceptively power friendly for lefty hitters.

Devon Travis (R), Blue Jays
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,200	$3,800	John Danks LHP	0.384	0.273	146	9	4.5

Devon Travis is bafflingly affordable. Is it because he was a relative unknown prior to the season? Did his stint on the disabled list kill his value? Whatever the reason for his cheap price, he's an excellent play for power and average against Danks. In a tiny sample, he's swatting .295/.326/.568 when lefties take the hill. As we've noted, Danks is somewhat worse than the typical southpaw. Don't forget, the White Sox bullpen is sketchy.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa (R), Astros
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,100	$4,500	Trevor Bauer RHP	0.351	0.219	126	3	3.5

I've come to the conclusion that Carlos Correa is my go-to blue chip property at shortstop. You do have alternatives today. Troy Tulowitzki is at Coors Field against homer prone Matt Shoemaker. Jose Reyes has a candy matchup opposite Danks and a weak bullpen. Nick Ahmed is a solid bargain versus Harrison. Correa doesn't have the softest matchup of the day, but Trevor Bauer isn't a star either. Correa hammers both righties and lefties, although he has hit better against southpaws in his brief debut. In addition to his seven home runs and five stolen bases, he has nine multi-hit games in 27 starts.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson (R), Blue Jays
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,900	$4,900	John Danks LHP	0.414	0.296	170	2	4.5

Danny Valencia (R), Blue Jays
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$2,800	$3,200	John Danks LHP	0.369	0.180	134	7	4.5

Josh Donaldson is in the midst of his third straight excellent season. He's batting .300/.357/.537 with 21 home runs. He has a 1.028 OPS versus southpaws. If you can budget him into the lineup, he's the obvious play tonight. Who can pass on his contact skills, power, and run production? If you find yourself needing a cheaper play, try his teammate Danny Valencia. The righty is a career .328/.369/.498 batter against lefties. In past seasons, Valencia would be pulled as soon as a right-handed reliever entered the game. This year, he's hitting for power against righties. It looks fluky, but the important thing is that he won't be pulled.

Outfield

Mike Trout (R). Angels
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$5,600	$6,600	Chris Rusin LHP	0.397	0.256	159	3	5.5

Bryce Harper (L), Nationals
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,900	$5,800	Michael Lorenzen RHP	0.397	0.243	154	4	4

I've listed Mike Trout because his matchup against Rusin at Coors Field is highly desirable. Unfortunately, his price tag is unaffordable without taking extreme measures at pitcher. Instead, I recommend Bryce Harper as an elite play. The Nationals' star is batting .344/.471/.714 on the season, leaving Trout in the dust. He's opposed by Michael Lorenzen of the Reds. Lorenzen has performed poorly with 5.79 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, and 1.65 HR/9. Left-handed batters have hit .298/.400/.564 against him. Unless Lorenzen plans on walking his way around Harper (and he may), then he'll have trouble retiring the stud lefty.

Charlie Blackmon (L), Rockies
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$4,600	$4,300	Matt Shoemaker RHP	0.357	0.165	111	1	5

Charlie Blackmon offers a nice high floor, high ceiling profile. While he's not cheap, he's reasonably affordable. With 20 home run power, 30 stolen base speed, a .270s average, and a solid walk rate, there are a dozen ways he can contribute to your DFS numbers. Shoemaker doesn't have platoon splits, but it's unclear how he'll perform in the rarified air of Coors Field. Pitch movement tends to decline in Denver which could hurt some of his offerings. Few pitches are more hittable than a thigh high sinker or a hanging splitter.

Yasiel Puig (R), Dodgers
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,300	$3,700	Adam Morgan LHP	0.379	0.167	147	6	4

The Dodgers offer a few affordable, high ceiling outfielders against lefty Adam Morgan. Yasiel Puig is the most recognizable. You could also turn Scott Van Slyke as an even cheaper option. Puig's price is down due to a series of injuries and tepid production. We know he's one of the most explosively talented hitters in the league. Even in a “down" year, the 24-year-old is batting .283/.369/.449. He's even better against lefties (.333/.455/.519). Morgan is making his third start for the Phillies. He's leaned on a mediocre fastball, plus slider, and plus changeup. If Puig's aggressive with the fastballs, it could be a big night.

---