MLB Cash Game Picks: 8-19-15

Pitcher

Want an ace, there are five today. Then there's also Jaime Garcia. He's done his best impersonation of an ace in his limited time. Most of the top guys come with a wart. Jon Lester is against the lefty bashing Tigers. Noah Syndergaard is at hitter friendly Camden Yards with the designated hitter in play. Stephen Strasburg is “gifted" with a Coors Field game. Despite the flaws, I do recommend that cash game owners pick one of the top six.

Of all the studs, only Corey Kluber has an obviously friendly matchup. He's opposed by Joe Kelly and the Red Sox at Fenway. The Boston lineup does have its good days, but they're generally unremarkable. Kluber averages over seven innings per start and 9.61 K/9. A complete game win seems possible. Even if he falls short, he could easily earn his expensive price tag. Unfortunately, it's a hard day to mix Kluber with strong hitters. Many of the best bargains are unavailable.

Alternatively, you could give Dallas Keuchel a try. He can be tough to justify using in DFS due to ace pricing and a mediocre strikeout rate – 7.92 K/9. This year, Keuchel has continued his campaign against worms with a 63 percent ground ball rate. He's further stifled the competition with a .265 BABIP. Statcast data should be taken with a handful of salt (you're warned). Now that you've read the shortcomings*, Keuchel has the third highest soft hit rate and lowest hard hit rate among all qualified pitchers. That could easily explain the low BABIP.

He's opposed by a lefty bashing Rays offense. They're second in the league with a 114 wRC+ against southpaws. Keuchel does have platoon splits, but that's only because lefties do nothing (.165 wOBA in 2015). Righties have a .267 wOBA against him this year.

*If you didn't read the link, Statcast data (i.e. soft, medium, hard hit) has a high rate of missing data. Houston happens to be the best park for capturing the data, but 20 percent of balls in play are not captured. It's unclear if there are systemic biases.

Catcher

Catcher isn't loaded with valuable options today. Russell Martin has been brutally cold in the month of August, hitting .108/.175/.108. But that's a good thing for DFS users. It's driven his price down to bargain levels. Martin is opposed by Phillies southpaw Adam Morgan. The southpaw has massive platoon splits in a small sample. Righties have bashed him to the tune of .281/.339/.480. Morgan also features a tiny 12 percent strikeout rate and fly ball tendencies. For his part, Martin is hitting .310/.424/.563 against lefties. The only downside is that he should be 100 percent owned. He won't be, but 50 percent wouldn't shock me. That's a bigger problem in GPPs.

First Base

I often recommend shelling out cash on a first baseman. Today is one of those days. Joey Votto is reasonably priced given his matchup. The Royals are visiting Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park with Jeremy Guthrie taking the bump. He's baseball's most platoonable starting pitcher. Lefties have hammered him for a .323/.390/.536 line along with 13 home runs. I'll be stunned if he doesn't cough up more tomorrow. The only downside to using Votto is the Royals elite bullpen. You can count on them showing up sometime around the fifth or sixth inning. Still, Votto is talented enough to continue contributing even after the superior arms enter the game.

Speaking of talent, Paul Goldschmidt is facing another lefty. This time it's J.A. Happ. Goldschmidt is arguably the best hitter in baseball against southpaws. He's slashing .384/.480/.686 this year with seven home runs in 103 plate appearances. He's cooled down recently with a mortal .236/.317/.345 line since the start of August. If you don't believe he's hurt, he's a bargain. Happ has reverse splits this year and neutral splits over his career. However, it's not because he's pitched well.

Second Base

Unlike first base, I see no overwhelming need to commit budget to a second baseman. On FanDuel, none of the options even cross the $4,000 threshold. Rather than a traditional choice, I have a (hopefully) under-the-radar, high floor pick. Cesar Hernandez is a switch-hitter set to face Mark Buehrle.

The Blue Jays lefty doesn't have platoon splits, so why worry about the switch-hitting component? Hernandez has hit .349/.419/.434 against lefties this season. It's not entirely luck despite a .446 BABIP. I consulted a scouting friend of mine who confirmed Hernandez has a superior swing from the right side. Whereas he's a slap hitter from the left side, he swings with some authority as a righty. Don't count on anything gaudy, but a couple hits would justify his price.

Shortstop

The theme of the day seems to be cold hitters. If you can't tell, I'm generally undaunted by short term struggles unless they seem to coincide with an injury. Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .180/.317/.320 in August. Remember, undaunted. I'm more concerned by his seasonal numbers and scouting reports. He's down to .287/.345/.460 on the year – still great from a shortstop. Scouts continue to say that his lower half (and therefore his swing speed) is less explosive this year. Even with warts, it's exciting to see him opposed by Morgan. If you prefer a hot bat at the same price, Ian Desmond plays at Coors Field.

Jhonny Peralta was extremely cold from the end of July through early August. Since then, he's been fine. However, he hasn't had a huge game so his price remains a bargain. As always, he's a high floor hitter for the position. He's opposed by Matt Cain, a pitcher who is likely to be demoted to the bullpen before long. Cain has failed to exceed five innings in his last three starts. He's allowed 14 runs in the process (13.2 innings). Opponents have scored four or more runs against him in six of his eight starts.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson is the obvious pick here, assuming you can scrounge $5,500 (FanDuel) or $5,900 (DraftKings). I bet you'll need a more price effective pick. Try Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals leadoff man has already popped 18 home runs as part of a more aggressive approach. With the newfound power stroke, he can return value with a high average, on base skills, over via the big fly. As we've discussed, Cain has pitched poorly this year. The issue can be traced to mediocre command. As a hitter, Carpenter is known for his excellent control of the strike zone. Look for him to jump on mistakes.

Outfield

Many analysts will recommend Jose Bautista today. I'd hold off on that investment. He may pop a home run against Morgan, but he does his best work against ground ball pitchers. Morgan is an extreme fly ball guy. Instead, use your money to buy Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates will face rookie southpaw Robbie Ray. The 23-year-old has shown flashes of excellence, but he hasn't quite connected all the dots. If he improved his command, his stuff could support a better strikeout rate. Teams have taken a more patient approach against him lately, and it's paid off. McCutchen is one of the best hitters against lefties although he has neutral platoon splits this season.

Color me puzzled by Mike Trout's price. Sure, he doesn't have the platoon advantage against Jeff Samardzija, but he's also Mike Trout. This seems like an overreaction to a short homer drought. Samardzija has pitched terribly in his last three outings. He's allowed 23 hits, six walks, and 22 runs over 15.1 innings. He pitched “well" prior to the rough patch, if by “well" you mean skating by with BABIP luck. A $4,600 price tag is never a bargain on either site, but it's awfully close when it's applied to Trout.

Another strangely affordable hitter, J.D. Martinez, actually has a difficult matchup. The Cubs will call upon Jon Lester. While Martinez does have a better walk rate against lefties, this pick has nothing to do with the platoon advantage. Martinez has bashed 31 home runs on the season, and Lester gives up his fair share of bangers. Martinez's FanDuel price is particularly cheap. He's always a home run threat. If you prefer a true bargain with all the risk that entails, try Stephen Piscotty against Cain.