MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Pitcher
Chris Sale (L), White Sox | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$12,500 | $13,000 | Red Sox | 2.38 | 33.6 | 42.5 | 3 | -173 |
Today's 13-game evening contest includes four aces. David Price and Johnny Cueto are also good picks today, and they're slightly cheaper than the top pair. My favorite pick for the day is Chris Sale. The Red Sox lineup is running hot with a 131 wRC+ in the month of August. They're also the sixth best team against left-handed pitching this season. Despite the positive factors on Boston's side, I'll happily take Sale. With Rick Porcello on the other side of the matchup, Sale should have an easy path to a victory. His elite reliever quality peripherals – 12.16 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9 – give him the highest ceiling of the day. He's struck out 29 batters in his last 14 innings.
Chris Archer (R), Rays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$11,800 | $12,800 | Twins | 2.58 | 30.6 | 46.2 | 3 | -200 |
If you're worried about Sale against the Red Sox at hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field, try Chris Archer instead. Like Sale, the Rays' ace has relief quality peripherals including 10.92 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. He doesn't post 15 strikeout games with the frequency of Sale, but he often crosses the 10 strikeout threshold. Vegas likes him the most today although I think there's a chance Tyler Duffey turns the game into a pitcher's duel. Archer is still a safe choice because the Twins have struggled against right-handed pitchers this season with a 90 wRC+.
The biggest issue with selecting a Rays starter is that manager Kevin Cash tends to turn to the bullpen early. Archer's the only Tampa pitcher who regularly exceeds six innings pitched. That wouldn't worry me for a GPP, but it's worth some consideration in cash game formats since it affects his floor.
Catcher
Kyle Schwarber (L), Cubs | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
--- | $3,900 | Jake Peavy RHP | 0.447 | 0.350 | 189 | 2 | 3.5 |
FanDuel has already ousted Kyle Schwarber from the catcher pool. DraftKings still allows you to pick him at his most valuable position. Analysts have recently noticed some similarities between Schwarber and Joc Pederson. Both players wrecked opponents through their first 150 plate appearances despite unsightly strikeout rates. Pederson has since fallen apart. He's no longer a starter for the Dodgers. Schwarber is still going strong with a home run last night. AT&T Park is a tough location for power, but Schwarber is too affordable at a weak offensive position. Jake Peavy has allowed nine runs and 16 hits in his last 11.2 innings.
John Jaso (L), Rays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,200 | $3,100 | Tyler Duffey RHP | 0.370 | 0.171 | 141 | 1 | 4 |
John Jaso is one of my favorite DFS plays. The Rays leadoff hitter (though, he hit cleanup last night) and “catcher" (aka outfielder/designated hitter) is amazingly productive for his bargain bin price. He's slashing .300/.383/.455 on the season while mostly hitting against right-handed pitchers. With sneaky pop and excellent on base skills atop the lineup, he usually offers at least some DFS points. A matchup against Duffey isn't ideal, but he's shown shaky command in two of three major league starts.
First Base
Edwin Encarnacion (R), Blue Jays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$5,200 | $4,600 | Colby Lewis RHP | 0.384 | 0.268 | 144 | 4 | 4.5 |
Edwin Encarnacion is the midst of a 20-game hitting streak. Since July 26, he's hitting .405/.466/.770 with six home runs. Four of those blasts have come in his last six games. FanDuel has adjusted their price, but he's a bargain on DraftKings. Encarnacion has a history of streakiness. It's usually tied to health. A matchup against Colby Lewis in Texas could produce another home run. Or at least more hits.
Adam Lind (L), Brewers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,700 | $3,600 | Cody Anderson RHP | 0.384 | 0.206 | 144 | 4 | 3.5 |
If you prefer a more affordable option, try Adam Lind. He's opposed by Cody Anderson at Progressive Field. While the Indians home park has a reputation as pitcher friendly, lefty power is boosted by 18 percent (118 left-handed HR park factor). Lind is slashing .297/.379/.516 against righties this year. Meanwhile, Anderson struggled with left-handed hitters in his first tour of duty. He allowed a .274/.381/.494 line. Anderson won't hand out many free passes (1.50 BB/9), but he's also extremely hittable (3.75 K/9).
Second Base
DJ LeMahieu (R), Rockies | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,800 | $3,600 | Shelby Miller RHP | 0.313 | 0.098 | 80 | 2 | 3 |
At the top end of the pool, Ian Kinsler and Jason Kipnis have the platoon advantage and strong matchups. However, I almost prefer DJ LeMahieu in a cash game format even before considering cost. The spray hitter has a challenging matchup against Shelby Miller. He relies upon a high line drive rate to post a good average and on base percentage. He doesn't have any platoon splits either. He's generally a safe bet for a hit or three. A LeMahieu pick is all about managing floor rather than ceiling.
Enrique Hernandez (R), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,200 | $2,600 | David Holmberg LHP | 0.418 | 0.253 | 171 | 8 | 4.5 |
Neither site has adjusted their prices for starting center fielder Enrique Hernandez. The righty has mashed left-handed pitching this season in 74 plate appearances. His .385/.446/.723 is obviously buoyed by a .468 BABIP. Even so, the underlying peripherals suggest he'll remain well above average versus lefties. More importantly, Hernandez is opposed by David Holmberg at Cincinnati. Not only is Holmberg the worst starting pitcher on the bump today, Great American Ball Park is the second best stadium for right-handed power. It's even better than Coors Field in some seasons.
Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins (S), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,500 | $3,300 | David Holmberg LHP | 0.295 | 0.112 | 84 | 1 | 4.5 |
It's a good day for high quality values. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .225/.278/.372 on the season, but that hides a few positive indicators. The Dodgers' leadoff man is back in his groove, and he was never slumping from the right side of the plate. Against lefties, he's hitting .318/.362/.466 in 95 plate appearances. As with Hernandez, Rollins will be facing a terrible lefty starter in a power friendly park. It also helps that the Reds bullpen is lousy. If Rollins isn't for you, consider Eugenio Suarez against Brett Anderson.
Third Base
Miguel Cabera (R), Tigers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
--- | $5,500 | Hector Santiago LHP | 0.427 | 0.243 | 174 | 3 | 4.5 |
After saving money with catcher, second base, and shortstop, it's time to find a place to spend it. Miguel Cabrera is an excellent gamble for top hitter of the day. Since returning from the disabled list, he's hitting .500/.577/.773. Yeah, I think he's healthy. Most of that is due to a .553 BABIP, and he's only popped one home run (nine doubles). He's hit in 10 of 11 games, and he has multiple hits in nine of 11. Cabrera prefers to face southpaw pitchers (1.091 OPS). He also likes fly-ball pitchers (1.109 OPS). Lo and behold, Hector Santiago is both.
Kris Bryant (R), Cubs | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,200 | $4,400 | Jake Peavy RHP | 0.367 | 0.217 | 134 | 5 | 3.5 |
If you're a FanDuel player, you don't have the option of Cabrera. It would be nice to roster Josh Donaldson, but he's unaffordable. The next best play is rookie Kris Bryant. AT&T Park is a poor fit for a power first hitter, but we know he has the necessary pop to drive it out. Bryant doesn't have platoon splits in his first season, and Jake Peavy is a good matchup for him. A cheaper alternative is Justin Turner.
Outfield
Mike Trout (R), Angels | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,600 | $4,600 | Justin Verlander RHP | 0.416 | 0.265 | 174 | 3 | 4 |
Mike Trout hasn't performed as well since sustaining a minor wrist injury, but he's still plenty impressive. He's become a relative bargain on DraftKings where nine outfielders cost the same or more than him. He's opposed by former ace Justin Verlander. The now mortal starter is a fly-ball pitcher. The entire Angels lineup does well against fly guys, and Trout is no exception (1.029 fly ball OPS). Pick him while he's a steal.
J.D. Martinez (R), Tigers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,400 | $4,400 | Hector Santiago LHP | 0.342 | 0.200 | 116 | 4 | 4.5 |
There's more than one way to approach a cash game lineup. One is to grab high floor bargains mixed with an ace and a couple Trouts and Cabreras. You could also try brute force via several multi-homer threats. J.D. Martinez doesn't have the same numbers as Cabrera against left-handed or fly-ball pitchers. He's still good against both (.856 and .842 OPS respectively). Santiago has pitched well this season, but he has a terribly challenging matchup ahead of him.
Yasiel Puig (R), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,700 | $3,600 | David Holmberg LHP | 0.375 | 0.182 | 144 | 2 | 4.5 |
While Yasiel Puig has disappointed his owners this year, he's still hitting well against lefties. As we've already noted with other Dodgers, he's in an ideal environment against a truly bad lefty. Puig has slashed .262/.375/.508 against southpaws this season. His bargain price on both sites makes him that much more attractive. Anticipate an elevated ownership rate – he was 16 percent owned on FanDuel last night. That's not a problem in a cash game.
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