MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Pitcher
Madison Bumgarner (L), Giants | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$11,400 | $10,600 | Braves | 3.28 | 24.8 | 40.1 | 3 | -171 |
When I'm picking a DFS pitcher, I generally try to maximize innings pitched, strikeouts, and chance of earning a win. Madison Bumgarner brings the trifecta, but it'll cost you. He's the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but he's relatively affordable on DraftKings. He's averaged just below six and two-thirds innings per start, and he's opposed by mediocre righty Williams Perez. The Giants should give him plenty of run support. The Braves have the fourth worst offense against left-handed pitchers with a 78 wRC+.
Brett Anderson (L), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$7,500 | $6,700 | Phillies | 3.66 | 16.8 | 66.4 | 3 | -178 |
Brett Anderson isn't the second best pitcher tonight – that honor belongs to one of Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, or Carlos Martinez. However, he is very cost effective for a pitcher who should pick up an easy victory. Anderson has averaged over six innings per start since the beginning of May (the Dodgers handled him carefully in April). He's gone exactly seven innings in four of his last six starts. He's done well preventing runs, and the Phillies offense isn't exactly terrifying. He won't pile up strikeouts, but that's what you get for $3,900 less than Bumgarner.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal (S), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,400 | $3,500 | Aaron Harang RHP | 0.362 | 0.197 | 136 | 5 | 4.5 |
The GPP player in me wants to recommend Brian McCann against Steven Wright at Yankee Stadium. Wright seems to be homer prone, and we know what that park does to left-handed power. However, since we're talking about cash games, it's worth mentioning that the knuckleball can have unanticipated effects on player performance.
A safer choice is Yasmani Grandal. He's an affordable pick for Bumgarner owners, and he bats in the heart of the Dodgers' lineup. Grandal is hitting .292/.400/.514 on the season – most of which has come against right-handed pitching. Phillies starter Aaron Harang is a typical depth piece. A fly ball pitcher with a modest strikeout rate is an excellent matchup for Grandal.
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt (R), Diamondbacks | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,000 | $5,000 | Gio Gonzalez LHP | 0.444 | 0.287 | 182 | 3 | 3.5 |
Who is the best hitter against left-handed pitching? Based on full career numbers, it's either Paul Goldschmidt or Andrew McCutchen. Gio Gonzalez isn't a pitcher I'd usually target, but Goldschmidt is an exception. This year, he's bopping southpaws to the tune of .361/.448/.675. He's not cheap, but his price tag is shockingly affordable today. Take advantage.
Kendrys Morales (S), Royals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,900 | $4,000 | Matt Boyd LHP | 0.324 | 0.145 | 107 | 5 | 4.5 |
There might be better affordable picks at first base (Adam Lind versus Ian Kennedy comes to mind), but Kendrys Morales against Matt Boyd certainly has my attention. Boyd made two starts for the Blue Jays before they traded him to the Tigers. In that time, he coughed up five home runs in 6.2 innings. He also allowed 15 hits and 11 runs.
Based on minor league track record, Boyd should be a solid major league pitcher. However, his brief time in the majors suggests there may be room for exploitation while he adjusts to the top level. Morales, a switch hitter, has hit 10 of his 12 home runs against left-handed pitching this season. If the ball doesn't fly out of Comerica Park, he can still return value via multiple hits.
Second Base
Howie Kendrick (R), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,100 | $4,100 | Aaron Harang RHP | 0.317 | 0.108 | 105 | 2 | 4.5 |
Howie Kendrick is a steady, reliable producer. He generally bats second for the Dodgers. He'll have plenty of opportunity to reach base and score runs against Harang. He has neutral handedness splits, and the rest of the Dodgers lineup tees off against righties. He's a classic high floor, low ceiling pick.
Anthony Rendon (R), Nationals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,000 | $3,300 | Rubby de la Rosa RHP | 0.337 | 0.161 | 114 | 2 | 4 |
Kendrick is a fine option for cash game owners. But then there's Anthony Rendon at an even cheaper price (especially on DraftKings). He returned about 10 days ago from the disabled list, and he's been merely decent. The one thing that's missing from his game is power, but that will come as he gets back up to speed. He's a top offensive contributor at second base with a temporarily bargain bin price. He's opposed by homer prone right Rubby de la Rosa. The 26-year-old has especially struggled with his sinker (.318 AVG, .614 SLG, seven HR) and changeup (.286 AVG, .588 SLG, 10 HR).
Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (R), Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,000 | $4,000 | David Holmberg LHP | 0.360 | 0.213 | 129 | 4 | 4.5 |
If you can find the budget, Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki are the top options at shortstop. Tulo is actually affordable on DraftKings at $4,400. Correa and Tulo are almost always the best picks. If you're a little bit strapped for cash, Jhonny Peralta is a good third choice. He's playing at Cincinnati's homer haven against David Holmberg. The soft-tossing southpaw is a terrible fit for the park. He doesn't have velocity, strikeout stuff, or plus command. In a small sample, he's been home run prone too. Peralta doesn't have platoon splits, but the situation is still in his favor.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson (R), Blue Jays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$5,200 | $5,300 | Tyler Duffey RHP | 0.342 | 0.172 | 119 | 2 | 5 |
Third base is a tricky position tonight. There are plenty of talented players, but the matchups aren't great. Josh Donaldson is the top third baseman this year. Twins right-handed prospect Tyler Duffey has the unenviable task of facing the Blue Jay in his debut. There's no question that Donaldson is best used against left-handed pitching. He's still a solid .278/.344/.520 hitter against righties.
Kris Bryant (R), Cubs | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,100 | $4,200 | Jeff Locke LHP | 0.352 | 0.233 | 123 | 3 | 3.5 |
Kris Bryant offers a much cheaper alternative. The cost savings aren't free; Bryant has to contend with PNC Park. It's one of the worst stadiums for power. He's hit for slightly better power against left-handed pitching (.807 OPS). Much like Giancarlo Stanton, we also know Bryant has enough power to make any stadium look small. He's a riskier pick for cash game owners due to a high strikeout rate.
Outfield
Bryce Harper (L), Nationals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,400 | $5,300 | Rubby de la Rosa RHP | 0.397 | 0.243 | 154 | 3 | 4 |
One of the challenges with cash games is finding that perfect balance of productive punt and stud performer. The trio of Bryce Harper, Andre Ethier, and Stephen Piscotty cost an average of $3,200 on FanDuel and $3,867 on DraftKings. That's right around the average cost of a position player if you select a top pitcher.
Obviously, Bryce Harper is the dynamic threat of the bunch. He's sitting on 29 home runs with a .330/.454/.667 line. As we discussed, de la Rosa has a homer prone sinker and changeup. He'll probably try to fool Harper with the change. And it may well fly out of the park. More importantly, Harper offers a high floor and a huge ceiling.
Andre Ethier (L), Dodgers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,700 | $3,000 | Aaron Harang RHP | 0.367 | 0.183 | 137 | 4 | 4.5 |
It's risky to rely on one guy to carry your team, which is why it's essential to find productive bargains. Andre Ethier is hitting .288/.377/.504 against righties this season with a luck neutral .300 BABIP. All of his 12 home runs are against righties. Harang is a below average example of a right-handed pitcher. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly isn't keen about settling on one lineup, but Ethier did bat cleanup yesterday.
Stephen Piscotty (R), Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,500 | $3,300 | David Holmberg LHP | 0.405 | 0.077 | 163 | 2 | 4.5 |
Meanwhile, Stephen Piscotty has made two straight starts in the two-hole for the Cardinals. You've seen me rave about Matt Carpenter for cash game formats. Piscotty appears to be the outfield version of that profile. Obviously there is more uncertainty with the short track record. Throughout his minor league career, he's posted a high walk rate, modest strikeout rate, decent power, and some speed. The overall picture is of a high average, high OBP hitter. The icing on the cake? The game is to be played at power friendly Great American Ball Park against terrible lefty David Holmberg.
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