MLB Cash Game Picks: 9-2-15

Pitcher

It's Clayton Kershaw day. It's Matt Harvey day. It's Max Scherzer. Hell, it's even Cole Hamels, Michael Wacha, and Scott Kazmir day. It's not a day to skimp on pitching. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on providing some steep bargains among the position players. Early September is a nightmare for predicting fringy player starts before lineups are posted. Be ready to adjust.

Think Kershaw costs enough? I know I said to pay for pitching, but you'll be forced to pair him with a cheaper second pitcher on DraftKings. After a slow start to the season, Kershaw may be enjoying the best year of his career. Cutting out those early problem starts, Kershaw has a 1.28 ERA, 1.74 FIP, 11.58 K/9, and 1.21 BB/9 over 17 games (126.2 innings). Nine of those starts ended with double digit strikeouts. The Giants aren't an easy opponent, but the Dodgers offense should muster enough run support against Mike Leake to earn Kershaw a win.

It's become trendy to avoid Matt Harvey due to a small decline in his strikeout rate. It turns out he's consciously pitching to contact early in counts in an effort to reduce his workload. This has the added benefit of obscuring his true talent. He can turn on the strikeout stuff as desired which can serve to muddle opposing game plans.

The real issue with paying for Harvey is the Mets plans for him. They want to limit him to between 185 and 195 innings. He's already at 160 frames, and you just know he'll be unrestricted in the playoffs. That means he may be held back tonight, especially if he isn't cruising. Last time out, he threw six strong innings with eight strikeouts, two hits, and one walk. He could have gone deeper. Even with the restriction, a start against Philadelphia is a tough pass.

Catcher

There are safer plays in the pool like Jonathan Lucroy. Francisco Cervelli offers a degree of reliability. He'll often reach base multiple times in a game while batting fifth or sixth. There isn't anything dynamic about his offensive presence, but a .303/.378/.422 line isn't anything to disdain. He'll face Zach Davies in his major league debut. Those don't always go well. With Miller Park in play, it could even be a rare homer day for Cervelli.

As much as I like Cervelli, John Jaso is hands down the better value. Neither site gives him any respect despite possessing a similar offensive presence to the Pirates' backstop. The issue is that Jaso is occasionally lifted late in the game when a lefty specialist is called upon. However, he makes up for the lost plate appearances by batting first or fourth in the Rays offense. While he only has two home runs on the season (in 142 plate appearances), he has more power potential than Cervelli. He also has a notoriously power friendly stadium on his side – Camden Yards. Kevin Gausman isn't the easiest matchup. Nor is he particularly difficult.

First Base

I'm quite sure you know how to find the Miguel Cabreras and Paul Goldschmidts of the world. They're the guys who cost more than some pitchers. Most fantasy owners are only aware of Ben Paulsen because of his home ballpark. Any regular Coors Field hitter is worthy of consideration, especially one who constructs a .283/.333/.485 line. Paulsen is particularly good against ground ball pitchers (1.172 OPS in a tiny sample). Chase Anderson is a league average pitcher at sea level. With Coors Field in play, it could be a high scoring affair.

On FanDuel, I'd strive to find the extra $100 for Jose Abreu. It's a matter of trust. Abreu doesn't need park factors and gimmicky small sample splits to be a safe pick. He's “disappointed" his owners with a .289/.345/.503 line and 24 home runs. Allow me a moment to rosin up my tiny violin. Last season, he ruined left-handed pitchers (1.098 OPS). This year, it's been much the opposite (.678 OPS). Reverse handedness splits are usually complete flukes. He's a solid play against Tommy Milone.

Second Base

Anthony Rendon is cheap because he hasn't produced much DFS value. However, he's performed reasonably well over the last couple weeks while batting second or third. With the right breaks, he could post a huge DFS night. He supplied some points in nine of his last 10 games including a couple home runs. Michael Wacha is a difficult matchup, and that's why Rendon isn't a steal at this price. There's a real risk he'll be beaten by a good pitcher.

With Chase Utley, the risk is that he's finished. Since returning from the disabled list, he's hit a healthy .328/.378/.522 while demonstrating better swing mechanics. However, he's hitting just .194/.293/.333 since joining the Dodgers 10 games ago. Perhaps his overwhelming bad season is enough for some to dismiss him. I'm still on the bandwagon. For the rest of the year, I expect numbers similar to his overall line from 2014.

Shortstop

Shortstop is terribly thin today. Nobody has a drool-worthy matchup, not even difficult-to-roster studs like Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki. While he's not the cheapest guy on the board, I'm inclined to give Jung-ho Kang a shot. The Rookie of the Year candidate has an increased chance for a home run at Miller Park. He typically bats fifth for the Pirates so he could be a source of runs and RBI. Davies struggled in five Triple-A starts for the Brewers. He's not entering this game on a roll, nor is he the type of prospect we should expect to dominate the competition.

Third Base

As with first base, I trust you can find your own way to Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, or Manny Machado. Assuming you went big on pitching, you'll need yet another bargain. Jake Lamb is a better play on DraftKings, but he's also reasonably price on FanDuel. If you need somebody even cheap on the latter site, try Evan Longoria ($2,500) or Trevor Plouffe ($2,500)

Lamb is attractive for one reason and one reason alone – Coors Field. A .269/.327/.400 line is fine for a cash game punt, but it's the favorable park factors that make him interesting. Lamb is opposed by Rockies prospect Jon Gray. The righty actually has a solid repertoire for Denver. He throws a four-seamer, slider, and changeup. All three pitches are minimally affected by the rarified air. Nevertheless, he's a meltdown risk. In his worst start, he coughed up seven runs over 1.2 innings. Even if Gray does well, the Rockies bullpen could ruin the day. You'll be hoping for a couple extra base hits out of Lamb.

Outfield

I've fallen in love with Gregory Polanco's home run swing. Take a gander against Mr. Kershaw. That's a low-and-in fastball he smashed out to deep right-center field. He's made some adjustments to his swing throughout the year which should let him tap into his power with more frequency. He's hitting .314/.363/.491 since the All Star break. A .371 BABIP does look fluky, but it's not enough to nullify his improved play. As with Cervelli and Kang, we're hoping the Pirates leadoff man can take advantage of Davies in his debut. It's a bit of a gamble for a cash game, but there aren't many must-exploit pitchers tonight.

With DFS picks, there is often an emphasis on juicy platoon splits. Sometimes, it's enough to just pick a good, cheap hitter at a friendly stadium. Adam Jones is remarkably inexpensive on FanDuel, and he's not a bad bargain on DraftKings either. Jones is hyper-aggressive which is both good and bad. Walks can help provide a high floor for a player, but it's extra base hits that drive DFS production. Jones is going to put plenty of balls in play against Erasmo Ramirez and the Rays bullpen. Whether or not they fall in is another matter.

The Braves swapped Jonny Gomes to the Royals where he promptly made some silly comments about a chicken pox outbreak. Alex Rios and Kelvin Herrera are currently sidelined with the (usually childhood) illness. Of course, we're here to talk fantasy value. We should see Gomes start against southpaw Randy Wolf. The Tigers lefty is one of the top exploit targets today. We didn't talk about Gomes' new teammates because they're not cheap. However, it makes sense to use any number of them if you have the money.

Gomes specifically is of interest for as long as Wolf is in the game. The Braves let him hit entirely too often against right-handed pitching. It's hidden his typically solid production against lefties - .240/.404/.453. He'll probably be subbed at the first sign of relief. Given his price tag, he may only need a couple plate appearances to return value. It's not my favorite play, but how else can you afford Kershaw and Hamels in the same lineup.