MLB Early Season Strategy

Early Season Strategy: MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball

MLB DFS is a data driven sport that ultimately benefits those who create small edges from multiple angles as one large edge amongst the competition. This is great when we have large sample sizes, however, the season has just begun. We have stats from previous years, but those stats won't remain 100% the same and our sample size will be too small to use this year's data. This article will be dedicated towards discussing strategy with using previous data, Vegas odds, wisdom of the crowd and more.

Previous Season Data

One of the best ways to make predictions or educate yourself on this season is to review with a grain of salt data from previous years. While many of the advanced projectors out there will regress data based on age, park, position wear down and other tactics, you can look at how well they hit versus a specific pitcher, pitch type etc.

One of the best ways to prepare early in the season is to write down a list of 25 to 50 batters who had the highest wOBA, ISO, or other advanced stat versus left-handed pitching and versus right-handed pitching. This will allow you to see early on which players to target depending on the opposing pitcher who is slated to start. Splits mean everything, and they can be very predictive for the long term. For example, a player like David Ortiz consistently crushes right-handers, yet isn't as effective versus left-handers. Knowing this information prior to this season's sample size being large enough to be useful can be very helpful.

Wisdom Of The Crowd

Early season, another very effective method of deciphering the data is by using wisdom of the crowd approach. Essentially, this means looking at multiple “experts" and finding similarities amongst whom they like on a day-to-day basis. For the casual player, they can read Daily Fantasy Cafe daily picks articles, daily projections, and watch podcasts to understand which players the site Pros deem best for today.

Pre-Season Projections

ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA are three of the most accurate pre-season projections models for the public to use. They are projections for the upcoming season created by some of the best baseball minds in the industry. Early in the season, you can compare last year's statistics versus this year's projected statistics to see who may be in for a breakout season and be underpriced versus those players who will be less dominant and likely overpriced to start the season.

One of my favorite ways to use projections is to divide by total games played and look at the statistics from a game-by-game comparison. Baseball is a long season and a grind for hitters. Targeting those who have better “per game" numbers can give you an edge until this season's data becomes useable. Note that projection systems also adjust for “in-season" projections based on how well a player is or is not playing.

By using season long projections, you are essentially creating a small daily edge which will lead to a long edge over the course of the DFS year.

Vegas Odds

They say to save the best for last, and that is exactly what I have done. Do not be fooled by me listing Vegas odds last, it doesn't mean it's least important. In fact, Vegas odds need to be the staple of your early season, mid season and end of season research.

The reason I use Vegas odds so heavily early in the year is because Vegas has the best model on earth. They have employees whose sole duty is to accurately predict games based on progression, regression, wind, weather, park factors etc. Essentially, they are accounting for factors that we may not even know exist.

In the early portion of the season, you will want to use Vegas odds to predict which games to target your hitters from and which pitchers to target.

By targeting games that have large totals, you can essentially increase your floor. More runs equal more fantasy points. The opposite is true for pitchers. When we have a large money line favorite and low total, that means safety and success for our pitching staff.

One other part of Vegas research that you will benefit from is evaluating prop bets. Prop bets are basically a projection where Vegas place odds on an individual player's success. You will see prop bets on items such as total RBI, total hits, total runs scored, total home runs, total strikeouts and other interesting combinations. By looking at these number, you can gain sense of which hitters Vegas expects to have big games.

You can build a fundamental lineup using Vegas exclusively by using a combination of targeting high total games as well as players with high prop bets.

Closing

The early part of the season can seem difficult given that we don't have usable current season data, however, that also means that hard work can increase your edge. By using the tips suggested above, and by following the advice provided by Daily Fantasy Cafe, we will do our best to guarantee a successful start to your MLB season.