MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.
Trevor Bauer - SP - Cleveland Indians
DK: $9,200, FD: $11,800
The Carlos Carrasco show faltered last night against the White Sox, but they still present upside to target in GPPs. Trevor Bauer hasn't been as consistent compared to last season, but is a -167 road favorite tonight, and the White Sox have a run total right around four. Chicago has a .323 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Bauer sits with a 27.5% strikeout rate, but the walks are up to an 11.3% clip, and his xFIP sits at 4.46. Outside of the strikeout rate, nothing spectacular. He is still missing plenty of bats, and the strikeout upside is what we are after here.
Joey Lucchesi - SP - San Diego Padres
DK: $8,800, FD: $11,000
The San Diego money line has been on the rise, as they are -162 favorites tonight against the Marlins. Miami has a 2.9 implied total, and Joey Lucchesi is back where he feels most comfortable. He has had a career 3.63 ERA at home, compared to a 4.94 ERA on the road. His strikeout rate sits at 25%, and his control is solid with just a 6.1% walk rate. He allows you to have plenty of cash to pay up for Coors, which Colorado has the highest total on the board. The Marlins are last in wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Top GPP Hitters
Jose Ramirez - 3B - Cleveland Indians
DK: $4,100, FD: $3,300
Jose Ramirez has struggled in 2019, but has shown some positive strides this month. His batted ball stats are positive and is in a really good matchup tonight. Dating back to last season he has allowed a .351 wOBA and .169 ISO to lefties, and in 2019 those numbers are much higher. Covey throws mostly sinkers, which Ramirez has a .419 wOBA and .260 ISO off of.
Matt Adams - 1B - Washington Nationals
DK: $4,300, FD: $2,900
Since 2018, Matt Adams has a .241 ISO and .339 wOBA off right-handers, and in that same span, Tyler Mahle has allowed a .409 wOBA and .263 ISO to left-handed hitters. He is also allowing a 45% hard-contact rate. Adams has over a .200 ISO against Mahle's fastball range, which he throws 68% of the time to left-handed hitters. Adams is a cheaper first base target, and gets a bump in Great American Ballpark.
Joc Pederson - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
DK: $5,300, FD: $3,800
The DraftKings price is a little much, but he is reasonable on FanDuel. Jake Arrieta has a growing weakness against left-handed hitters, allowing a .357 wOBA and .186 ISO to them since last season. This season alone he has allowed a .373 wOBA and .208 ISO, with a high 45% hard-contact rate. Joc Pederson has over a .400 ISO against right-handers this season, and a .321 ISO dating back to last season. With Arrieta relying so much on his sinker, Pederson's .486 wOBA and .324 ISO off the pitch is what makes him standout here.
Shohei Ohtani - OF - Los Angeles Angels
DK: $3,800, FD: $3,200
The Angels are a solid offense to target tonight, and won't draw high ownership either. Shohei Ohtani hasn't had the fantasy production yet, and his prices are lower than his usual. He has a .458 xwOBA off right-handers this season, and over a 40% hard-contact rate. His line drive rate is through the roof, and he gets a weak right-hander tonight. Mike Leake has allowed a .358 wOBA and .238 ISO to left-handed hitters this season.