MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 5-17-17

The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.

Top GPP Pitcher

Hahn isn't a high upside strikeout pitcher, but he has done an excellent job of limiting damage this season, as evidenced by his 2.98 FIP (4th-best on the slate) and 0.21 HR/9 (2nd). His 6.96 K/9 is a very pedestrian number, but his consistency has been his selling point this season, allowing three earned runs or less in every start. He has gone at least six innings in all but one start, highlighted by an 8-inning, 1-hit gem against the Angels on April 25th. He isn't going to post eye-popping numbers in this one, but against a Mariners team that is missing Robinson Cano and Mitch Haniger, we are really only worried about Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz (maybe Kyle Seager if you're still a believer). Hahn has allowed just a .251 wOBA to LHB and a .265 wOBA to RHB this season as well as a respectable HardHit of 29.8%. A Quality Start is certainly in play here, and at ownership that should be south of 5% on this slate, his price affords you the ability to stack plenty of big bats.

Top GPP Hitters

Carpenter draws a matchup tonight that may seem tough on paper, but Rick Porcello hasn't been nearly as good as some of his (fantasy) numbers indicate. He has allowed 9 home runs already this season, and is allowing a 44.9% HardHit to LHB on the season (he hasn't been much better against RHB either at 42.3%). Carpenter has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, although some bad luck has come his way as well with a .280 BABIP. He has mashed RHP to the tune of a .284 ISO and .423 wOBA, and is walking in a ridiculous 22.6% of his PA against RHP as well. His floor/ceiling combo is elite, and he should come at low ownership due to the perceived tough matchup. Among pitchers on this slate, Porcello is either dead last or second to last in HardHit against hitters from both sides of the plate (yes, I know I already said that). Carp owns a 53.9% HardHit over the last 14 days. Fire up Carp and company here at low ownership.

With a 46.2% HardHit over the last 14 days, you would think that Abreu would be posting huge numbers over that span, but that isn't quite the case. A .229 BABIP has kept his numbers down over that span, but four homers, two doubles, and an 8/5 K/BB over that span is still pretty darn good, even if it could be even better. Opposing pitcher Matt Shoemaker is 2nd-worst on the slate with a 1.84 HR/9 this season, and has allowed a 37.5% HardHit and five homers to RHB already this season. Abreu is finally starting to hit like the player we saw wearing "79" a few years back, and his ceiling is massive against a pitcher like Shoemaker, even in a pitcher's park in Anaheim.

Over the last 14 days, Mookie Betts has been incredible (12 games), batting .314 with 5 HR, 14 RBI, 6 2B, and 2 SB with a 4/7 K/BB. What does that have to do with Altherr? His numbers are eerily similar, despite playing two less games (10): .297 BA, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB and 11/8 K/BB. While he won't be matching Mookie's plate discipline any time soon, putting those numbers into perspective is important after Altherr is finally seeing a big price bump. Tonight he faces Andrew Cashner, who has been much better against RHB than LHB throughout his career, and this year is more of the same, as he is allowing just a 26.5% HardHit to same-handed hitters. However, his BB (5.66/9) rate is higher than his K rate (5.06/9) against RHB this season, and Altherr seems to have no preference, as he is crushing both left and right-handed pitchers. He should be very low owned, and has plenty of upside here.

Davis has been the victim of plenty of bad batted ball luck of late, posting a .182 BABIP over the last 14 days, despite a 41.2% HardHit. He finally broke through the other night, blasting a homer for the first time since April 29th. Tonight should be an ideal matchup for him against Christian Bergman, who has allowed a CAREER .417 wOBA to RHB, serving up 20 HR, 29 2B, and 4 3B in just 91.1 IP. The best part is that Davis' issues with strikeouts should be mitigated by the fact that Bergman literally doesn't strike ANYONE out, as he has 4.14 K/9 against same-handed hitters. Davis has multi-homer upside, and I'm enamored with his low price and matchup here.