MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 5-31-17

The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.

Top GPP Pitcher

With elite arms such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Archer on the bump tonight, Pomeranz should be very low owned, especially after Chris Sale struggled in this matchup last night. Pomeranz has had his share of struggles this season, but is coming off a dominant performance against the Rangers, where he struck out 11 over six innings of two-run ball. Over the last 14 days, Pom owns a 40.5% K rate, and has been somewhat unlucky with a .381 BABIP. Tonight's matchup looks like a solid one on paper, but the White Sox have been mashing the ball of late, leading MLB with 24 HR, 82 runs scored, and a .293 team BA over the last 14 days. With that said, they are still striking out 23.2% of the time over that span, and if Pom has one thing going for him, it's his K upside. His HardHit (35.3%) and HR/9 (1.64) are the highest of his career to this point, but his .324 BABIP and 17.8% HR/FB are also significantly higher than his career averages. He doesn't come without risk, and pitch counts are always an issue with him, but his K upside is among the best on the slate, and that means a lot on this slate full of elite arms.

Top GPP Hitters

The Nationals bats are in a tremendous spot against Matt Cain tonight, who has a ridiculously low 7.3% K rate over the last 14 days (he also has a BB rate of 7.3% over that span), as well as a SwStr of just 3.6%. The moral of the story here is that Cain simply cannot miss bats anymore, and Murphy has some of the best plate discipline of any hitter on the planet, as evidenced by his 0.92 BB/K, which includes a K rate of just 8% against RHP this season. Cain has allowed a .348 wOBA to LHB this season, as well as a 14/17 K/BB (no, that isn't a typo). Murphy has exhibited plenty of power in his 2017 campaign, and I'm expecting the Nats to put up a big number in this one, despite the poor environment for hitters at AT&T Park. Murphy owns a very solid floor/upside combo, and comes in at a very reasonable price, which is even lower than teammate Anthony Rendon, who has been hot, but is certainly not the caliber of hitter than Murphy is.

Adams finds himself in a solid spot against Jesse Chavez tonight, who has been tremendously consistent in one area: allowing home runs. He has served up at least one in 10 of his 11 starts this season, including five over his last two starts (9.1 IP, 10 ER). Adams has been a solid addition to a Braves team that is missing their leader in Freddie Freeman, as he has a .262 ISO over the last 14 days. He doesn't walk much, but his plate discipline was never much of a strength throughout his career (I'm being generous, it's terrible). His power is undeniable, however, and he comes in at a very cheap price tag, which could help open up salary for any of the studs you may want to pay for on the bump tonight. Adams has a low floor, but that's why his price is so easy to afford. I'm calling a moonshot for Adams tonight against Chavez.

Remember when J.D. was the hottest hitter on the planet after his return from the DL? He hasn't exactly slowed down in the power department, as he owns a .302 ISO over the last 14 days with a 48.3% HardHit. He also owns a .200 BABIP over that span, which suggests that he has been very unlucky as well. Opposing pitcher Ian Kennedy has long been known as a hurler with an issue with the longball, and his last three starts are a perfect indication of that, as he has served up five homers and 13 ER over just 11.1 IP. Martinez has upside on the slate that is second to none, and with so many aces on the slate, his higher price tag should keep him very low owned, despite being in an elite spot.

Remember how I mentioned how bad Jesse Chavez has been at allowing home runs? His 8 HR allowed over the last 30 days (28.1 IP) is actually the second-worst among tonight's pitchers. The worst? Masahiro Tanaka, who has served up 10 HR over just 25.1 IP in the last 30 days. Granted, seven of those came in back-to-back games against Tampa Bay and Houston, with a dominant 13-strikeout performance last time out against Oakland, but the issue still remains. Enter Welington Castillo, who has mashed the ball since his return, posting a .205 ISO over the last 14 days. Tanaka owns a .403 wOBA against same-handed batters this season, and while I'm certainly a believer that he'll turn things around in that department, he is much more hittable than some recent numbers may indicate. At a position that is fairly thin tonight, Castillo could be a difference maker at low ownership.