MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.
MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS TODAY.
Top GPP Pitcher
Jimmy Nelson (RHP), Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp | FIP | K% | GB% | Opp Run Total | Moneyline |
$9,300 | $7,900 | SD | 3.65 | 25.5 | 44.6 | 3.5 | -160 |
Nelson's last start didn't go very well at all finishing with only 5 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, Nelson had been consistent and pitching 6 or more innings in 5 of his last 6 starts along with over a K per inning in those same games.
His groundball rate of 44.6 is higher than any of the other top options on today's slate which goes well with his 25.5 K%.
The upside and strikeout potential is certainly here today facing the Padres who are one of the worst hitting teams in Baseball this season. Nelson's last start, and plenty of intriguing pitching options today make him a solid play, affordable and at ownership likely under 15% in most GPP formats.
The Brewers are favored in this one and with the Padres only projected for 3.5 runs Nelson should be relatively safe today as well.
You can pair him with a higher priced player such as Jacob DeGrom or Robbie Ray today, or really load up on high end bats and pair him with the Ray's youngster Jacob Faria on DraftKings.
Top GPP Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP | ISO vs RHP | wRC+ vS RHP | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,700 | $5,500 | PHI: B. Lively-RHP | .446 | .301 | 190 | 3 | 5.25 |
The numbers speak for themselves with Paul Goldschmidt and plugging him in a lineup should never raise any doubts. Today is a day we can afford him, and everything about this matchup plays well into Goldy's favor. His numbers against righties are fantastic with a wOBA of .446 and the Diamondbacks are heavily favored today with 5.25 projected runs.
Goldy is a fine play every single night, and today paying down at pitching allows him to fit in easily and his price tag alone will likely keep him under 5% ownership.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF), Miami Marlins | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP | ISO vs RHP | wRC+ vs RHP | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$4,100 | $4,700 | ATL: M. Foltynewicz- RHP | .344 | .197 | 93 | 2 | 4 |
Stanton appears to be heating up and hitting the ball to the moon like he used to. He has 2 homers in his last 10 games and today's matchup should heavily favor the slugger in Atlanta. He is averaging 9.1 Fantasy points a game, and hasn't hit a home run in 3 games. I like him due to his power potential and his ability as of late to gather hits and walks today as my second higher priced option.
The optimizer has Giancarlo as our top outfield option today with a projection of 10.12 pts and edging out Cody Bellinger who is priced significantly higher than Stanton today.
Jason Kipnis (2B), Cleveland Indians | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP | ISO vs RHP | wRC+ vs RHP | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$3,100 | $3,600 | MIN: K. Gibson-RHP | .298 | .177 | 61 | 1 | 6 |
Aside from a pair of goose eggs in his last 5 starts Kipnis is producing double-digit DraftKings points. Today he happens to face the right-handed pitching Kyle Gibson who I thought would be a great player to gang up on in my last post. Gibson pitched surprisingly well, but this series has been all Cleveland so far, and I have a feeling Gibson and my Twins will get shelled again today.
Kipnis appears to be on the mend, and although his power hasn't shown up over his last 10 games he can score points in many ways and today's hits, runs or maybe even a stolen base is in his future.
His numbers aren't fantastic above, but the optimizer has Kipnis as our fourth best 2nd base option today with a projected 8.85 DraftKings points.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP | ISO vs RHP | wRC+ vs RHP | Batting Order | Team Run Total |
$2,800 | $2,700 | CWS: J. Shields- RHP | .303 | .109 | 86 | 6 | 5.5 |
Ah the value play pick here is the risky, and searching for a needle in the haystack option. Tulowitzki has done nothing over his past 10 games to peak my interest, and I am looking at him today, and the optimizer helped push me over the edge with a projected 7.52 DraftKings points.
That has him projected as the 8th best Shortstop option and he should be low ownership today. Lately the highest owned players have been the lower priced value plays, and if you can play one with upside to counter their risk, and at ownership under 8% you could have a big advantage in your contests. His .303 wOBA isn't fantastic, but he is in a matchup that is favorable, and where the Blue Jays are projected to score 5.5 runs. Maybe the Tulo of old will re-appear today.
Good Luck everyone!
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