MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 7-3-15

By: Neil Parker, Updated July 03, 2015

MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit

The evening slate is limited to 13 games Friday. Clayton Kershaw is the big fish going against the New York Mets who scored a single run in their recent series against the Chicago Cubs. The first decision in GPP contests is whether to roster Kid K.

Top Pitchers

Michael Wacha (R), Cardinals
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp	FIP	K%	GB%	Opp Run Total	Moneyline
$8,600	$9,900	SD	3.14	19.1	46.6	3	-151

Wacha's lack of punchout potential should be mitigated by the Padres' propensity to strikeout against righties -- only the Chicago Cubs have fanned more. The Cards are also receiving significant chalk, and Wacha has held opponents to a .203/.279/.306 line at home with a 2.89 ERA, 3.44 FIP and 1.05 WHIP.

In addition to the strikeouts, the Friars rank 26th in OPS, 23rd in ISO and in 27th wOBA against righties this season. Look for the win-bonus kickback from Wacha.

Julio Teheran (R), Braves
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp	FIP	K%	GB%	Opp Run Total	Moneyline
$8,000	$8,000	PHI	4.68	18.3	40	3	-150

It has been a tale of two cities this season for Teheran. In Atlanta, he has a 2.35 ERA and 3.24 FIP while holding opponents to a .169/.246/.256 slash line. Any other city has been nothing but trouble for the former-Braves' ace. Atlanta are heavy favorites, too.

Philadelphia's pedestrian offense boasts a league-worst OPS and wOBA with the second-worst ISO against right-handed arms this season. Just note, their 18.8 percent strikeout rate isn't horrible. Still, Teheran should return plus-value on his third-tier cap hit.

Top Hitters

Steve Pearce (R), Orioles
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$2,400	$3,700	John Danks LHP	0.381	0.240	142	7	4.5

While still not stellar, Pearce has had far more success against left-handed hurlers this season (.322 wOBA, .758 OPS), and he has an active 11-for-32 run with a .882 OPS. He is an upside source of cap relief, and a solid option at second base for DraftKings contests.

John Danks has allowed a .311/.362/.570 slash line and .398 wOBA to righties this season, so it qualifies as a plus-matchup for Pearce Friday.

Chris Johnson (R), Braves
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$2,200	$2,800	Adam Morgan LHP	0.374	0.143	139	4	4

Another near-minimum-priced option, Johnson is essentially a lefty specialist at this point with a .400/.417/.543 slash line and .417 wOBA. He'll hit in the heart of the order and should fly under the ownership radar.

Facing soft-tossing-rookie Adam Morgan shouldn't instill fear, either. Johnson is a true high-risk, high-reward option, but he clears all kinds of cap space.

Yasmany Tomas (R), Diamondbacks
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,300	$4,200	Kyle Kendrick RHP	0.355	0.108	123	4	4.5

Tomas owns a reverse split with a .362 batting average, .381 wOBA and .863 OPS at home against righties, and he is currently riding a 12-for-36 run with six runs, a home run, six RBI and a .900 OPS over his past nine games.

Kyle Kendrick is serving a target-worthy 2.25 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on the road this season with a side of 6.28 FIP.

Matt Wieters (R), Orioles
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015	ISO vs LHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,200	$4,000	John Danks LHP	0.371	0.232	134	5	4.5

Going back to picking on John Danks, Wieters may be overlooked due to his poor showings against southpaws this season. Don't forget, small sample sizes work both ways, and Wieters has a respectable .210 ISO, .356 wOBA and .823 OPS against lefties for his career.

He stands out as an excellent value for a mid-priced backstop.

Randal Grichuk (R), Cardinals
FanDuel	DraftKings	Opp Pitcher & Handedness	wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015	ISO vs RHP 2012-2015	wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015	Batting Order	Team Run Total
$3,600	$3,600	Andrew Cashner RHP	0.347	0.242	123	6	3.5

Grichuk has been a beast at home (.362 wOBA, .868 OPS) and against righties (.370 wOBA, .882 OPS) this season, and he is quite affordable. It isn't a slam-dunk matchup against Andrew Cashner, though, especially without the handedness advantage -- lefties rock Cashner for the record.

Still, those looking for a contrarian play can turn to Grichuk who should see a number of RBI opportunities and is in fine form (.947 OPS over his past 17 games).

Value and Platoon Plays

Kolten Wong (2B - STL) FD: $3,100 DK: $4,000

As mentioned, opposing pitcher Andrew Cashner has been beat up by lefties this season. Wong enters the matchup with a .201 ISO, .362 wOBA and .848 OPS against righties this season, and should be worth spending up for.

Mitch Moreland (1B/OF - TEX) FD: $3,300 DK: $4,200

Moreland has the handedness advantage, and he draws road-weakened Garrett Richards (5.17 ERA and 4.02 FIP on the road). Plus, over his last nine games, Moreland has six home runs, 10 RBI and a 1.192 OPS. His price jump should keep his ownership down, albeit while increasing the risk.

David Peralta (OF - ARI) FD: $3,900 DK: $4,200

Kyle Kendrick's struggles have already been highlighted, and Peralta is a righty killer to the tune of a .355 wOBA, .202 ISO and .828 OPS. He has been all over the lineup, unfortunately, but it hasn't kept him from mashing, as he is riding a 10-game run with seven runs, five extra-base hits, seven RBI and a 1.162 OPS.

Eduardo Nunez (SS/3B/OF - MIN) FD: $2,500 DK: $3,300

First, make sure he is starting, and then you can turn to Nunez as a sneaky source of cap relief. Nunez is 23-for-67 against righties this season with a .899 OPS and .389 wOBA. Just note, Jeremy Guthrie's high ERA (5.68) is buoyed by a single blow-up start.

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