The Big Dinger 8-26-16

This year we bring you Big Dinger, as we step up to the plate and call our shots. Below are five players in a range of prices that have the top chances of going yard. We take a matchup, advanced stats, Vegas, park factors, and weather into consideration as we narrow down our top long ball targets. Step into the box with us, point your bat out to center, and launch one into the cheap seats.

Note: The Big Dinger will be broken down with one play in each tier from both DraftKings and FanDuel

Top-Priced Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate: 20%

Dozier is sure expensive, but he's been red-hot. As you can see in the chart above, Dozier has absolutely murdered left handed pitching throughout the years. He's enjoyed some success against Liriano, taking him deep in seven at-bats over his career. Since July 31st (24 games), Dozier has amassed 13 home runs for a .490 ISO. It's hard to deny that anyone else is on such a tear as Dozier is right now. Against righties this year, Liriano has allowed a 1.52 HR/9. He's pitched one game at home since being traded to the Blue Jays. In that start, he surrendered five runs and one home run. With this Twins team that hits lefties well, Liriano could be in some serious trouble.

GPP Ownership Estimate: 10%

Another lefty masher is no other than Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt has hit two home runs over his past four games on this current home stand. With the two more home runs this past week, Goldschmidt now has hit 14 of his 20 home runs at Chase Field. When you look deeper at the numbers, you'll notice that Goldschmidt owns a .375 ISO while at home against lefties. Finnegan has had some decent starts this year, but he has also been very inconsistent. He's coming off an impressive start though against the Dodgers. However, Finnegan still is allowing a 2.11 HR/9 to righties on the year.

Mid-Priced Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate: 15%

Grichuk really hasn't seen the type of playing time you would like, but considering the Cardinals' vast amount of injuries, Grichuck has become an everyday player recently. He hasn't really done big things against lefties this year, but still holds a .213 ISO against southpaws. He's also been hitting the ball well, hitting two home runs over his past three games. In 12 games this month, Grichuck has left the park five times for a crazy .545 ISO. In his two starts away from O.co Coliseum, Detwiler has given up a dong in each one of those games, while not being able to finish the fifth inning in either of those starts.

GPP Ownership Estimate: 10%

Davis has had one heck of a month, hitting seven home runs for a .346 ISO. He's been a force against righties this year as well. Davis comes into this game with a .279 ISO against righties. The ballpark factor here isn't great, but it's much better than O.co Coliseum. Against Weaver, a pitcher making just his third career start. This will be Weaver's first career home start against the A's. He pitched at Wrigley Field and Citizens Bank Park in his first two starts, allowing a home run in each game.

The Long Shot Dingers

GPP Ownership Estimate: 5%

Who is this you may ask? Well, Hernandez isn't your prototypical power hitter, as he only had ten home runs between AA and AAA before being called up a few weeks ago. In 12 games since, he's gone deep three times for a .289 ISO in 38 at-bats. He's played pretty much everyday since he's been called up, but still batting in the lower part of the lineup. In baseball, it's not a popular strategy to play guys in the lower part of the lineup, but you really only need one good at-bat for Hernandez to pay off his salary. Obviously there isn't much data against lefties for him (2-for-8), but that one home run is impressive. Against Smyly, a guy who is allowing a 1.57 HR/9 to righties on the year.

GPP Ownership Estimate: 10%

I expect everyone to be on Flores tonight, since he gets to face a lefty. We all saw Flores' do some damage against Jaime Garcia, a guy who typically never allows the long ball. Flores gets to face an easier matchup in Morgan. Morgan is allowing a 2.34 HR/9 to righties this year. The only downside is that this game is at Citi Field. If this was at Citizens Bank Park, Flores would almost be a guaranteed home run. Even so, Flores still holds a .333 ISO against lefties this year. He's averaging one home run per every ten at-bats against lefties this year. If you're not on Flores here (especially with his FanDuel price), you're doing DFS wrong.