MLB Pitching Pulse: 4-23-18

Pitching is the lifeblood of a DFS lineup, and an important part of keeping those tabs open deep into the night. For those new with us, the Pitching Pulse is focused on providing information on four to five pitchers that are viable in various formats. This is a premium article that will give away one free preview pitcher, while the rest will be for premium members. We take a deep dive into pitchers across all salaries, looking for exploitable matchups, game theory plays, and identify the nightly chalk. Our information comes from our optimizer, FanGraphs, and other various MLB sites listed below. Feel free to comment below, or find us on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe. We focus on Main Slates across all content, but will feature blurbs about other slates at times, and can be reached via Twitter or comments.

Carrasco comes in as the clear-cut top option on today's slate as the Indians close out their series against the Orioles. Carrasco has posted three-straight quality starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 11 hits over that span, and has posted a 20.6% strikeout rate this season. The lowered strikeouts are a little bit of a concern, as he has seen an 8% decrease from last season, although some of that concern can be mitigated by the fact that he has faced the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers, three teams that have lowered strikeout rates against right-handed pitching this season. He has seen his strikeouts over the last two games tick upwards, with six and seven against the Tigers and Twins, and his 13.2% SwStr% dating back to last season suggests his strikeouts should normalize soon. That could happen tonight against the Orioles, a team that is striking out 26.7% of the time against right-handed pitching, which makes Carrasco an excellent option in all formats. Carrasco's contact management skills have been stellar dating back to last season, as he has allowed just 28.2% hard contact to both sides of the plate, and his recent StatCast data is superb, as he has allowed an average exit velocity of just 86.4 MPH and an average batted ball distance of 162 feet this season.

Carrasco is a pitcher that relies mostly on his 93 MPH four-seam fastball, a pitch he has thrown 31% of the time this season, along with a slider that he is using 21% of the time to right-handed hitters, and a mix of changeups and curveballs that he is throwing about 12% of the time each. His slider is the pitch that the Orioles should struggle with today, as seven Baltimore hitters have SwStr% over 15% against the pitch, although Machado, Jones, and Joseph have flashed some power against the pitch since last season. Machado and Mancini are a couple of worrisome bats in the lineup that could get to his four-seam fastball, as well, although Mancini's 23% strikeout rate against RHP should negate some of that danger here. So, basically, Machado is the only bat in this lineup to be concerned about here. Carrasco is most certainly going to be a popular option today, and for good reason, but he represents a lot of upside in this matchup.