Pitching is the lifeblood of a DFS lineup, and an important part of keeping those tabs open deep into the night. For those new with us, the Pitching Pulse is focused on providing information on four to five pitchers that are viable in various formats. This is a premium article that will give away one free preview pitcher, while the rest will be for premium members. We take a deep dive into pitchers across all salaries, looking for exploitable matchups, game theory plays, and identify the nightly chalk. Our information comes from our optimizer, FanGraphs, and other various MLB sites listed below. Feel free to comment below, or find us on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe. We focus on Main Slates across all content, but will feature blurbs about other slates at times, and can be reached via Twitter or comments.
Jacob deGrom (R) Vs. San Diego Padres
Opposing Team Splits Vs. Pitcher Handedness
Implied Run Total
We have plenty of aces on the slate, like Corey Kluber and Luis Severino, but neither draw a matchup like Jacob deGrom tonight. As you can see above the Padres are still the same old team they always have been against right-handed pitching, and it gives deGrom huge upside tonight. I do expect him to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate, and while you can play leverage all you want, I won't be fading in cash or most tournament lineups. deGrom has upped his strikeout rate so far this season, striking out 34.8% of hitters he has faced. His walks are also down, especially against lefties to just 3.7%. deGrom is throwing his changeup and slider 37% of the time, and both have whiff rates over 20% and a wOBA allowed under .260. So far this season, the Padres rank 22nd against changeups, 30th against sliders, and 23rd against fastballs. deGrom also will get to enjoy Petco Park, which has suppressed runs and home runs over the last three seasons.
As mentioned, Kluber and Severino both facing tougher offenses that are not high strikeout prone teams, I am just going to go with deGrom and not over think it. If I am making a pivot, it is for the guy below. You can get Kluber and Severino at decent ownership compared to their seasonal average, but I am not all that thrilled with them being the pivots to make. deGrom is the number one option tonight in all formats.