MLB Pitching Pulse: 5-16-18

Pitching is the lifeblood of a DFS lineup, and an important part of keeping those tabs open deep into the night. For those new with us, the Pitching Pulse is focused on providing information on four to five pitchers that are viable in various formats. This is a premium article that will give away one free preview pitcher, while the rest will be for premium members. We take a deep dive into pitchers across all salaries, looking for exploitable matchups, game theory plays, and identify the nightly chalk. Our information comes from our optimizer, FanGraphs, and other various MLB sites listed below. Feel free to comment below, or find us on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe. We focus on Main Slates across all content, but will feature blurbs about other slates at times, and can be reached via Twitter or comments.

Max Scherzer is my top dog tonight, even facing against a Yankees team with these numbers against right-handers. The 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is what we are always after targeting this group of hitters. There is weather in the area all day, and you will need to have a plan to pivot away, which is easy on this slate because we have Chris Sale and Justin Verlander as well. Scherzer has been absolutely dominant against right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .171 wOBA, 0.79 ISO and with a 51.9% strikeout rate. Yes, he is striking out over 50% of right-handed hitters faced. Lefties have a bit more success, but it isn't saying much. He is holding them to a .263 wOBA, .179 ISO, and 34% strikeout rate. Lefties have the more power potential in this spot, which should be guys like Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Neil Walker. Walker and Gardner have below a .100 ISO against right-handers on the year. As you could have expected Scherzer is generating a ton of swing and misses (17.6%), and is working ahead in the count 59% of the time. Hitters have just a 63.1% contact rate off Scherzer on the year. Scherzer is a solid option in all formats if the weather holds up.

Chris Sale is the easy pivot from Scherzer tonight if the rain turns out to make things worse in Washington. There is a little rain in Boston, but this game doesn't have much of a problem. Sale is generating a 34.2% strikeout rate and 16.8% swinging strike rate this season. He continues generate a lot of soft-contact (28.4%) as well. Oakland isn't a bad offense as I have said many times before, boasting a .335 wOBA and .169 ISO off left-handers this season. The projected lineup also has a 46% hard-contact rate and 77.4% contact rate off lefties, but this is Chris Sale. Oakland bats do not have a lot of success against the slider, which is something Sale is throwing 29% of the time this season, generating a 50.5% whiff rate. His changeup is also fairly underrated, allowing a .209 wOBA and owns a 42% whiff rate. Oakland's best slider hitter is Matt Olson, who has a .349 wOBA and 44% hard-contact rate. However he is a lefty, which Sale is fairly automatic against left-handed hitters anyway. He will still need to get around big power bats like Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and of course Chad Pinder.

Walker Buehler is a safer mid-range option tonight, and really the only one before completely diving down. He has a 31.4% strikeout rate this season, which won't hold moving forward given his contact rate is at 80.7% and his whiff rates are pretty pedestrian. Buehler has an above average fastball, hovering around 96-97, and it currently has a .231 wOBA and .284 xwOBA being hit off him. His slider and curveball are decent, but the curveball is going to need some work moving forward. It currently is being hit for a 66% hard-contact rate and only has an 11% whiff rate. Walker still has some promising stuff, but his numbers are not an indicator of this at least right now. The Marlins offense is weak and the 24.2% strikeout is somewhat of a lie. This projected lineup has a 21% strikeout rate this season off right-handers, and that is mainly driven up by Lewis Brinson. This projected lineup has a 76% contact rate, which doesn't mean much because they only have a .288 wOBA and .132 ISO. Buehler should be fine, but doesn't have the upside you think he has.

Garrett Richards is cheap again, and he has been for most of his starts. Houston is name value team at the moment that people are not targeting. Their hard-contact is down this season, despite making a lot of contact. Richards is a slider throwing right-hander, throwing it just as much as his fastball. This spells trouble for Richards in some starts because of control, but it is a filthy pitch generating a a 44% whiff rate and .201 wOBA. Yulieski Gurrial and Josh Reddick are the only two bats who generally hit sliders well. I am sort of amazed Houston ranks where they do this season against right-handers despite not generating a ton of offense. This current roster has a 21.4% strikeout rate and .236 average. At his price on DraftKings, I don't mind taking some flyers on him in GPPs.