Pitching is the lifeblood of a DFS lineup, and an important part of keeping those tabs open deep into the night. For those new with us, the Pitching Pulse is focused on providing information on four to five pitchers that are viable in various formats. This is a premium article that will give away one free preview pitcher, while the rest will be for premium members. We take a deep dive into pitchers across all salaries, looking for exploitable matchups, game theory plays, and identify the nightly chalk. Our information comes from our optimizer, FanGraphs, and other various MLB sites listed below. Feel free to comment below, or find us on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe. We focus on Main Slates across all content, but will feature blurbs about other slates at times, and can be reached via Twitter or comments.

Zack Greinke (R) vs Milwaukee Brewers

Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed




Hard% Allowed



Opposing Team Splits Vs. Pitcher Handedness







Implied Run Total


Greinke didn't factor into the decision the last time these teams faced off a few days ago but he did manage to go six innings of one run ball with five strikeouts. We have seen Greinke start to turn the season around a bit, as he has allowed only one earned run in three-straight starts, after getting off to a little bit of a rocky start. Greinke's velocity is still an issue, as he is hanging around 89-90 MPH, but he has started to adjust by throwing his four-seam fastball a bit less while relying a little bit more on his offspeed stuff like his changeup and cutter, while mixing in some two-seam/sinkers along the way. The velocity dip, and corresponding dip in four-seam usage, has caused Greinke's strikeout rate to fall a bit, as he is averaging a 22.2% strikeout rate over his last three starts, and he has averaged a 49.1% GB rate over that time, which would be about a 5% increase over his usual GB rate if that holds out over the long term. A deeper dive into Greinke's fastball numbers can explain the hard contact he is allowing, as opponents have posted a 41.56% hard contact rating against the pitch which, combined with the earlier velocity dip, is why it is a good thing he has thrown it much less of late. Assuming Greinke relies heavily on his changeup tonight, a pitch he threw 26% of the time last time he faced Milwaukee, he could be in line for a solid outing as there are very few Milwaukee bats that hit changeups well. As a matter of fact, only Lorenzo Cain and Travis Shaw have contact rates over 70% against the pitch and only Jesus Aguilar has a hard contact rating over 35% against it. The Brewers struggle against sliders, as well, with only a single player, Travis Shaw, in their projected lineup posting a contact rate higher than 70% against the pitch. Just about everyone in that lineup has WHIFF rates north of 30% against both changeups and sliders, as well, so if Greinke can locate both pitches with ease tonight, he could be in line for a good game. The biggest question here will be whether or not he can set himself up for the win, as the Diamondbacks offense has really struggled this season.

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