MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-17-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

On the wrong side of 30, Adam Wainwright is not the pitcher he once was. He still has the ability to get through games limiting damage, as we saw last time out against Milwaukee, but there are blowups coming. Wainwright has also developed some severe home road splits dating back to 2016. He allowed a .389 wOBA away from home last season and .374 the year before that. Wainwright will head into Wrigley, going on the road for the first time in 2018. He has allowed over a .350 wOBA to both sides of the plate to start the year. Wainwright's numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction, as walks are way up and strikeouts are way down. Wainwright is relying on his signature curveball more often this season, throwing it 36% of the time so far. While Wainwright grinding out a respectable start would not surprise me, I could see Chicago putting up plenty of runs here.

Anthony Rizzo is due back tonight, but we will need to keep an eye on the lineup anyway. Rizzo not quite the same $2,000 price he was on FanDuel yesterday, but is someone I am looking at still tonight. He has over a .200 ISO off right-handed pitchers dating back to last season, and a .368 wOBA. Although his xwOBA has some room for growth. As mentioned with Wainwright, he is throwing that curveball quite a bit. Rizzo has a .323 wOBA, .409 xwOBA, and .206 ISO off curveballs dating back to last season. Kris Bryant is also someone who has hit curves well, posting a .343 wOBA and .214 ISO. Staying on that trend, Kyle Schwarber is not someone I will forget about. He has posted a .379 wOBA and .319 ISO off curveballs, but in a limited sample size. Guys like Ian Happ and Willson Contreras can fill out the stack, and should go overlooked a bit. Happ's issue is just simply making contact. He has a 61.8% contact rate dating back to last season, but a .264 ISO. Contreras has a .337 wOBA and .192 ISO off right-handers dating back to last season

Houston has not looked exactly like the offense that won the World Series last season, but things could turn around in a matchup like this. Safeco isn't the best power park, but that will deflate ownership a few percentage points and these bats are still very much in play. As seen above, Ariel Miranda is a flyball pitcher, especially coming against right-handers, and that 2.21 HR/9 stands out quite a bit. Miranda threw three pitches in 2017, a fastball, slider, and splitter. His splitter was crushed for a .408 wOBA and .354 ISO. His fastball, .372 wOBA and .297 ISO. His slider was pretty average as far as whiff rates go and hard-contact. It was his best pitch as far as limiting damage, which could do well against Houston, given they don't grade out well against sliders outside of Yulieski Gurriel.

Miranda throwing his fastball over 55% is still a lot, and averaging 92 mph is a range Houston crushes as a whole team. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Gurriel all carry over a .400 wOBA against fastballs in the 92 mph range. Also nobody has under a .200 ISO of that group. Altuve grades out well against the Splitter, with a .519 wOBA and .238 ISO. Correa does as well, with a .445 wOBA and .444 ISO. These are limited sample sizes, given the splitter isn't a tremendously popular pitch. This stack is expensive, and I usually don't like writing about popular Houston stacks, but I don't believe that will be the case tonight.

I am going a little bit west coast heavy and contrarian in the article here tonight, but these Angels bats are in a good spot against David Price who was just shelled by the Yankees right-handers. This Angels lineup is projected to have nine right-handers in the lineup. Price could fold early, which would leave a pretty subpar long reliever in there for the rest of the way.

Obviously Mike Trout is in play, but guys like Cozart, Upton, and Pujols are as well. You could also get weird with a Kinsler, Simmons, Marte, or Young who should round up the lineup tonight. The Angels have a projected .344 wOBA and .189 ISO against lefties for their projected lineup. I am not buying into Price as an elite arm, and some will. He has allowed a 37% hard-contact rate to right-handers dating back to last season, with a 45.7% flyball rate.