MLB Stacking To Win It: 3-29-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

There are a couple of stacks that won't make it in today's article, with the Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin) being a stack that will likely be extremely popular, and the Dodgers not being a part of the main slate on DraftKings. Both are excellent stacks to target if you want, although the ones below are where I am leaning heavily.

The defending World Series champions kick off the season against their in-state rivals, the Texas Rangers, and they will face lefty Cole Hamels on Opening Day. Houston is once again expected to be one of the most potent offenses in the majors, as they hope to repeat their magical 2017 season. Their lineup took a slight hit with Yuli Gurriel suffering a hand injury during spring training, an injury that will sideline him for a portion of the season, but with Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa anchoring the lineup, they should be just fine. Those four are the primary targets here, as each of them absolutely punished left-handed pitching last season. Carlos Correa was their best hitter against lefties, posting a .445 wOBA, .217 ISO, .457 OBP, and a strikeout rate of just 11.4%, followed by Springer (.413 wOBA, .248 ISO, .423 OBP, 12.2% K-rate), Altuve (.413 wOBA, .209 ISO, .416 OBP, 12.9% K-rate) and Bregman (.406 wOBA, .209 ISO, .416 OBP, 13% K-rate). In addition to those four, Marwin Gonzalez is a cheaper option, and one that will be lower owned, that can be considered here. He was great against lefties last season, as well, as he posted a .340 wOBA, .275 ISO, .328 OBP, and 17.9% K-rate. Hamels was terrible against right-handed hitting last season, giving up 1.26 homers per nine innings and a hard-hit rate of 38% while striking them out only 17.3% of the time. He also walked right-handed hitters to the tune of 3.69 per nine innings, while surrendering a .324 wOBA to them. Globe Life isn't quite the launching pad it used to be but given how much power is in the Astros lineup, and Hamels' struggles against right-handed hitters, I am expecting this stack to go bananas today. Vegas agrees with me on that, as they have Houston projected to score over 5 runs in this contest.

The Baltimore Orioles were one of the most infuriating teams to stack last season, as they almost always seemed to disappoint in great spots, but it is a new year which means it is time to forget about all that and wipe the slate clean. The Orioles kick their season off at home against the Minnesota Twins today, and Minnesota is sending the newly-acquired Jake Odorizzi out as their opening day starter. Odorizzi is a right-handed pitcher that has exhibited reverse splits in his career, meaning he is worse against right-handed hitters than lefties, making the right-handed Orioles strong targets today. Odorizzi gave up a massive 2.08 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters last season, along with a 41.1% hard-hit rate, and struck them out 21.4% of the time. He had an alarming 17.9% home run to fly ball ratio, as well, and allowed 45.3% of his hits to be flyballs when facing right-handers. The most interesting bats from the Baltimore side of this game will be Tim Beckham (.336 wOBA, .176 ISO, .328 OBP, 29.6% K-rate) Trey Mancini (.362 wOBA, .223 ISO, .344 OBP, 23.5% K-rate) Jonathan Schoop ( .341 wOBA, .184 ISO, .330 OBP, 20% K-rate), and Adam Jones (.340 wOBA, .188 ISO, .322 OBP, 17.5% K-rate). You can feel free to use Manny Machado or Chris Davis if you would like, with Machado being the preferred option of the two, as he posted a .203 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season and struck out less than Davis, although I am leaning towards the other options as they should be lower owned. One of Pedro Alvarez or Danny Valencia could find themselves in the lineup with Mark Trumbo sidelined, and either is viable if you are stacking the bottom of the lineup or want some one-off power potential. Vegas has Baltimore projected at 4.88 runs, tied for the fourth-most runs on the slate today, and the combination of park and matchup makes them incredibly appealing.

The Phillies decided not to put Odubel Herrera in their Opening Day lineup. Because of this, I am a little less interested in this stack, but you can still use them and put Crawford, Hoskins, or Knapp in your Phillies stack. If you want to pivot to another low owned stack, look at the Chicago Whitesox and consider Abreu, Davidson, Castillo, and Delmonico.

Perhaps my favorite stack on tonight's slate and one that will be extremely low owned is the Philadelphia Phillies. They jump-started their rebuild this offseason with the addition of Carlos Santana and they have some excellent power hitters like Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco anchoring the lineup. They are also extremely young, with Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, and J.P. Crawford having very little experience in the majors. Because of their youth, they could strike out a ton, so there is some risk with rolling them out today, but they face off against Julio Teheran who hasn't been able to get a left-handed hitter out since Obama's first administration. Teheran posted a meager 17.2% strikeout rate to left-handed hitters last season and allowed 1.51 home runs per nine innings and a .338 wOBA. Those numbers were even worse at home, a park designed for left-handed power, as he gave up a .391 wOBA, 2.25 homers per nine innings, and a 5.86 ERA overall. His strikeout rate dipped overall last season, from 22% to 18.6%, and his offseason velocity dip is extremely concerning. Because he struggles against left-handed hitters, and Sun Trust Park is built for left-handers, those will be my primary targets today. That starts with the switch-hitting Cesar Hernandez (.345 wOBA, .106 ISO, .381 OBP, 20.6% K-rate), Odubel Herrera (.326 wOBA, .166 ISO, .326 OBP, 21.6% K-rate), Nick Williams (.353 wOBA, .205 ISO, .340 OBP, 28% K-rate) and Carlos Santana (.359 wOBA, .214 ISO, .368 OBP, 17.4% K-rate). While those four are my primary targets, it does feel strange to skip over Rhys Hoskins who posted a .333 ISO to right-handed pitching last season and Jorge Alfaro who had a .264 ISO, as well, so either can be used in place of Hernandez or Herrera who don't possess as much pop as the others. On FanDuel, Herrera and Williams are just way too cheap to completely ignore and are two excellent sources of value when trying to squeeze in a high-dollar stack with a high-dollar pitcher. Vegas is projecting the Phillies at 4.43 runs, which is great for their prices, and I expect that no one will be on them today.